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Three-Generation Models of Credential Transmission in the Netherlands: 1940-1984

This presentation explores the transmission of credentials in the Netherlands from 1940-1984. It examines the intergenerational mobility and the impact of social origins on education and occupation. The study also investigates the effects of changes in the business cycle and technological advancements on education and social mobility. The findings suggest that credentials play a significant role in reproducing inequality in contemporary societies.

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Three-Generation Models of Credential Transmission in the Netherlands: 1940-1984

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  1. THREE-GENERATION MODELS FOR THE TRANSMISSION OF CREDENTIALS IN THE NETHERLANDS, 1940-1984 WOUT ULTEE MAARTEN WOLBERS JOCHEM TOLSMA RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN, THE NETHERLANDS PRESENTATION AT THE RC28 SPRING MEETING AT THE CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG MAY 10-12, 2012

  2. FIRST GENERATION 1862 – 1950 1947 1880 - 1960 1955 SECOND GENERATION 1907 - 1979 1910 - 1983 1937 THIRD GENERATION 1946 - ?? 1976

  3. 1980: GOLDTHORPE • CLASS STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN BRITAIN • 1980: COLLINS • THE CREDENTIAL SOCIETY • 1979: BOURDIEU • LA DISTINCTION

  4. GOIN’ BACK QUESTION: IS BRITAIN STILL A CLASS SOCIETY? WHAT’S IT GONNA BE QUESTION: WILL CREDENTIALS BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES LIKE THE USA? SHIFTING MECHANISMS QUESTION: LESS REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY BY THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES? MORE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH THE TRANSMISSION OF CULTURAL RESOURCES? AND MORE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH AN INCREASE IN EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?

  5. IF TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES, AS INDICATED BY FATHER-SON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY, ARE LESS AND LESS CLASS SOCIETIES AND MORE AND MORE CREDENTIAL SOCIETIES THEN THE QUESTION OF CREDENTIAL MOBILITY GAINS THE UPPERHAND OVER THE QUESTION OF CLASS MOBILITY

  6. BREAKING DOWN THE QUESTION OF INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY INTO THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLASS ORIGINGS ON EDUCATION AND THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CLASS DESTINATION DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH: INTERGENERATIONAL CREDENTIAL MOBILITY IS INTERESTING IN ITSELF MULTIVARIATE MODELS HIGHLIGHT DIRECT (NET) EFFECTS, WHEREAS TOTAL EFFECTS ARE MORE IMPORTANT AND SINCE MODELS OFTEN ARE NOT RECURSIVE, INDIRECT EFFECTS REMAIN UNDERSTUDIED

  7. THE TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT: WHEREAS THE QUESTION OF SOCIAL ORIGIN AND EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT IS ABOUT FAMILIES AND STATES THE QUESTION ABOUT EDUCATION AND DESTINATION IS ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND ABOUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICALLY DRIVEN CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURES

  8. BY DONATING AND BEQUESTING WEALTH TO THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS ONCE REPRODUCED CLASS INEQUALITY BY SPENDING TIME AND DOING THINGS WITH THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS NOWADAYS REPRODUCE CREDENTIAL INEQUALITY SINCE PARENTS NOWADAYS LIVE LONGER, THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES IS DELAYED WHEREAS MORE CULTURAL RESOURCES ARE BEING TRANSMITTED

  9. OUR OWN HYPOTHESIS: THE INCREASE IN LONGEVITY IS SO STRONG THAT NOT ONLY THE LIFE SPAN OF PARENTS AND CHILDREN OVERLAP MORE THE LIFE SPAN OF THESE CHILDREN AND THE LIFE SPAN OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS ALSO OVERLAP MORE IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETIES THERE WILL BE A STRONGER DIRECT EFFECT OF THE EDUCATION OF GRANDPARENTS (FIRST GENERATION) ON EDUCATION IN THE THIRD GENERATION (CHILDREN)

  10. FOR CHILDREN TO BE BORN, A MOTHER AND A FATHER ARE NECESSARY THEREFORE INTERGENERATIONAL QUESTIONS AS FATHER-SON QUESTIONS MAY BE OFF THE MARK CREDENTIALS IN THE THIRD GENERATION DEPEND UPON CREDENTIALS OF MOTHERS AND FATHERS IN THE SECOND GENERATION THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF A SECOND GENERATION HUSBAND, THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE NET OF THIS, THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE ALSO MAY BE HIGHER IF HIS FATHER (FIRST GENERATION) HAS HIGHER CREDENTIALS TOO

  11. FIRST ??? SECOND ??? SPOUSE SECOND THIRD

  12. SO, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF CREDENTIALS IN THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE CREDENTIALS OF THE THIRD GENERATION MAY CONSIST OF 1) A DIRECT EFFECT PLUS 2) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION PLUS 3) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE IF NO DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION IS FOUND, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO TOTAL EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION

  13. THE SECOND ??? IS A !!! FOR THE NETHERLANDS WE HAVE INDEED FOUND THAT A MAN (WOMAN) HAS A SPOUSE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION IF THAT PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION AND, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, IF THE FATHER OF THIS PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION SEE DE GRAAF, SMEENK, ULTEE & TIMM, THE WHEN AND WHOM OF FIRST MARRIAGE IN THE NETHERLANDS IN (EDITORS) BLOSSFELD & TIMM, WHO MARRIES WHOM?, 2003 THE FINDINGS WERE MADE BY COMBINING TWO SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN 1992 AND 1998

  14. WARREN & HAUSER 1997 DID NOT FIND A DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION FOR WISCONSIN, USA EROLA & MOISIO 2007 FOUND ALMOST NO DIRECT OF GRANDPARENTS’ CLASS ON CHILDREN’S CLASS FOR FINLAND 1950-2000 CHANG IN 2011 AT SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN ESSEX PRESENTED FINDINGS ON THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOWING THAT FIRST GENERATION CLASS HAS A DIRECT EFFECT ON THIRD GENERATION CLASS, NET OF SECOND GENERATION CLASS AND EDUCATION (IN SAMPLES OF SOME 2,000, 6,000 AND 4,000 THIRD GENERATION PERSONS)

  15. AT THE SUMMER 2011 MEETING OF RC28 IN IOWA CITY, USA MARE PLEADED IN FAVOR OF THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS MARE ACCEPTED THAT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES THE THIRD GENERATION HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT IN THE BROAD MIDDLE OF THE SOCIAL SCALE, BUT DOES HAVE EFFECTS AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM THESE EFFECTS ARE INTERACTIONS, THE FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION DO MORE IN COMBINATION THAN EACH GENERATION DOES ON ITS OWN MARE ALSO WANTS TO STUDY THE SIZE OF THE EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION IN CHINA, BEFORE THE ADVENT OF INDUSTRIALISM THE MOST DEVELOPED AGRARIAN SOCIETY THE WORLD EVER KNEW

  16. MY HYPOTHESIS HERE IS THAT IN THE CONTEMPORARY NETHERLANDS, BECAUSE OF THE GENERAL INCREASE IN LONGEVITY, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION ON THIRD EDUCATION IS GROWING

  17. OUR DATA PERTAIN TO THE NETHERLANDS AND WERE COLLECTED IN FIVE SIMILAR SURVEYS CALLED THE FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION ABBREVIATED IN DUTCH FNB IN SOUTH AFRICA THIS IS A BANK YEARS OF SURVEY: 1992 1998 2000 2003 2009

  18. IN EACH SURVEY YEAR ABOUT 1,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE INTERVIEWED IF THEY WERE OFFICIALLY MARRIED OR LIVING IN A COMMON-LAW MARRIAGE, THEIR PARTNERS WERE INTERVIEWED TOO IF A PARENT WAS STILL ALIVE, THAT PARENT RECEIVED A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE IF A CHILD WAS 25 YEARS OR OLDER, THAT CHILD RECEIVED A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE

  19. ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS (SECOND GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF THEIR FATHER AND MOTHER (FIRST GENERATION) THE PRESENT SPOUSE OF EACH PRIMARY RESPONDENT WAS ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF HER OR HIS FATHER AND MOTHER ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF ALL THE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) THEY HAVE WITH THEIR PRESENT SPOUSE IN THE MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) AND PARENTS (FIRST GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THEIR EDUCATION

  20. SO, WE HAVE TWO MEASURES FOR THIRD GENERATION AND FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION WE WILL ASSUME IN LATER RESEARCH THAT PROXY MEASURES ARE LESS ACCURATE THAN FIRSTHAND MEASURES WE WILL NOT ESTIMATE FIRSTHAND STATISTICAL MODELS HERE AT LEAST IN OUR FIRST SURVEY YEAR WE - UNDERSTANDABLY - DID NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH SECOND GENERATION CASES WITH DOUBLE MEASURES FOR THE FIRST GENERATION AND FOR THE THIRD GENERATION

  21. FROM OUR FIVE SURVEYS, WITH SOME 5,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WE EXTRACTED 2,400 CHILDREN 25 YEARS OR OLDER SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE CHILD PER PARENT, (WE APPLIED A CLUSTER CORRECTION TO THE STANDARD ERRORS) FOR THESE PERSONS WE HAVE VALID SCORES FOR OWN EDUCATION, FATHER’S EDUCATION, MOTHER’S EDUCATION, EDUCATION OF FATHER’S FATHER, EDUCATION OF FATHER’S MOTHER, EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S FATHER, AND EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S MOTHER

  22. FIRST A TABULAR ANALYSIS SEE ON THE HANDOUT TABLES 2A, 2B, 2C EN 3 THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION WHEN HOLDING CONSTANT FOR FATHER’S EDUCATION, FOR THOSE WITH A HIGHLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS NO EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION FOR THOSE WITH A LOWLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS A POSITIVE EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION SO, THERE IS AN INTERACTION EFFECT, BUT NOT THE ONE PREDICTED BY MARE

  23. THEN WE ESTIMATED LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WE RECODED LEVELS OF EDUCATION ACCORDING THE NUMBER OF YEARS PEOPLE MINIMALLY STUDY FOR A CREDENTIAL WE PLAYED AROUND BY ESTIMATING TWELVE MODELS SEE TABLE 4 IN THE HANDOUT WHEN CONSIDERING ALL CHILDREN, THERE IS A EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT UPON THE INTRODUCTION OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION THIS FINDING REPEATS ITSELF FOR WOMEN, BUT NOT FOR MEN IN THE SEPERATE COHORTS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE FOUND OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION

  24. FINALLY WE ESTIMATED LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS WITH THE ODDS OF TERTIARY CREDENTIALS VERSUS LOWER CREDENTIALS AS THE PHENOMENON TO BE PREDICTED WE PLAYED ONCE MORE AROUND WITH MODELS, AND TABLE 5 ONCE MORE PRESENTS TWELVE OF THEM FOR ALL THIRD GENERATION PERSONS, THERE IS NO DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION, THAT DIRECT EFFECT IS NOT THERE EITHER FOR MALE CHILDREN OR FEMALE CHILDREN SEPERATELY

  25. WHEN CONSIDERING THE EARLIER GENERATION, THERE IS AN INSIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION IN THE LATER GENERATION THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION AND A DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION WHEN BRINGING IN MOTHER’S EDUCATION, THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION BECOMES ALMOST FULLY INDIRECT THIS TELLS ABOUT INDIRECT EFFECTS OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION BY WAY OF THE EDUCATION OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE, AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER

  26. THIS PRESENTATION OBVIOUSLY IS A REPORT ON WORK IN PROGRESS WE WANT TO ESTIMATE RECURSIVE MODELS WE HAVE TO DEVISE A BETTER TEST OF CHANGES IN THE COURSE OF TIME BY RECODING YEAR OF BIRTH NOT INTO TWO CATEGORIES, BUT BY TAKING IT IS A METRIC (PERHAPS ACCORDING TO SOME MEASURE FOR LIFE EXPECTANCY) WE STILL HAVE TO APPLY CORRECTIONS BY REPLACING PROXY MEASURES FOR THE FIRST AND THIRD GENERATION BY FIRSTHAND MEASURES (BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THEM FOR EVERYONE IN OUR SAMPLE)

  27. AS YET, I DO NOT FEEL HOPELESS ABOUT MY BOURDIEU HYPOTHESES THIS POWERPOINT IS POSTED ON MY WEBSITE TYPE IN GOOGLE WOUT ULTEE CLICK THE FIRST HIT, GO ON THE LEFT TO PRESENTATIONS, THEN TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS THERE YOU WILL FIND THE POWERPOINT, THE TABLES AND THE TEXT SO FAR

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