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The Political Psychology of elections Theories and methods for survey research

The Political Psychology of elections Theories and methods for survey research. Sharon Coen , PhD University of Salford, Greater Manchester 3 rd INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL IN POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR   19 July, 2012. Aims:.

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The Political Psychology of elections Theories and methods for survey research

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  1. The Political Psychology of electionsTheories and methods for survey research Sharon Coen, PhD University of Salford, Greater Manchester 3rd INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL IN POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR   19 July, 2012

  2. Aims: • Critically evaluate the contributions psychology can give to explaining voters’ behaviour • Critically evaluate whether and how to include measures of psychological constructs in surveys • Apply to survey design (and data analysis)

  3. Overview - 1 • What is political psychology? • Political Psychological take on elections • Homo economicusand Homo psichologicus • Cognitive factors • Motivational and ideological factors, values • Psychosocial factors

  4. Overview - 2 • Measuring factors influencing voting choice in survey research • Macro-distant factors • Macro-proximal factors • Micro-distant factors • Micro-proximal factors

  5. Overview – 3 (optional) • Analysing survey data • Evaluating scales: validity ad reliability • Factor analysis and Alpha • Predicting intention to vote (or actual vote) • Logistic regression, Path Analysis and Hierarchical Linear Modeling

  6. Exercise 1 • In small groups, please identify some key factors you already know (or think might) play an important role in voters’ choices

  7. MACRO • POLITICAL SYSTEM • Party system • Electoral laws • -Political-social-territorial cleavages • STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION • Economical climate • Salient political themes • Leader’s image VOTE DISTANT PROXIMAL • SOCIAL STRUCTURE, POITICAL ORIENTATIONS AND VALUES • Social status • Ideology • Political alignment • Socio political values • DECISION IN THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT • Cognitive factors • Affective factors • Motivational factors • Psychosocial factors MICRO Source: Catellani, 2011 (based on Rokkan, 1982)

  8. MACRO • POLITICAL SYSTEM • Party system • Electoral laws • -Political-social-territorial cleavages • STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION • Economical climate • Salient political themes • Leader’s image VOTE DISTANT PROXIMAL • SOCIAL STRUCTURE, POITICAL ORIENTATIONS AND VALUES • Social status • Ideology • Political alignment • Socio political values • DECISION IN THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT • Cognitive factors • Affective factors • Motivational factors • Psychosocial factors MICRO Source: Catellani, 2011

  9. Political Psychology Political psychology is an interdisciplinary academic field dedicated to understanding how individuals (e.g. citizens, journalists, politicians, militants) interact with the political reality through the use of psychological theories. see Sears (1987) for overview of key areas of interest

  10. Political Psychology of voting behaviour Homo economicusvsHomo psichologicus

  11. Cognitive factors influencing vote • Prospect theory (Tversky and Kanheman, 1981) and Framing [Prof. Iyengar’s lecture] • Salient themes [Prof. Pfetsch’s lecture] • Heuristic thinking and biased evaluation of parties and candidates

  12. Prospect theory Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows: Problem 1 [N = 152] If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. [72 percent] If Program B is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and2/3 probability that no people will be saved. [28 percent] Problem 2 [N = 155]: If Program C is adopted 400 people will die. [22 percent] If Program D is adopted there is 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. [78 percent] Pattern of risk aversion in choices involving gains and risk seeking in choices involving losses

  13. Evaluation of candidates • Judgements of morality and leadership particularly important (e.g. Cislak and Wojcizke, 2006, 2008) • Although extraversion and sociability play also a role (see Mazzoleni and Sfardini, 2009) [Lecture by Prof. Brants] • Stereotypical attributes: appearance (Todorov’s work), Gender (Lammers, Gordjin & Otten, 2009), demographics (e.g. Age, Ethnicity, Local origin, Catellani, 2011)

  14. Affect and voting behaviour • Mood: positive mood favours heuristic processing (e.g. Bagozzi, Gopinath & Nyer, 1999) [Prof. Moy & Prof. Brandts] • Emotions: emotions towards candidates (see e.g. Redlawsk, 2006; Neuman, Marcus, Crigler & MacKuen, 2007) and parties (Mari and Rosema, in press) significant predictors of voters’ choice [Prof. Moy] • Group-based emotions Smith (1993, 1999)?

  15. Motivational factors affecting voting • Relational motives: the desire to affiliate and establish interpersonalrelationships; a need for personal or social identification, solidarity with others, and shared reality • Epistemic motives: the drive to reduce uncertainty, complexity, or ambiguity; cognitive preference for certainty, structure, order, and/or closure • Existential motives: the drive to manage threatening circumstances; a personal search for security, self-esteem, and meaning in life • System justification: motivation to defend, bolster, and justify the status quo; tendency to view current social arrangements as fair, legitimate, and desirable Jost, Federico and Napier (2009) see also Manzi, Vignoles , Regalia (2006) for identity motives

  16. Ideologies • Coherent set of attitudes and values shared by members of a social group which underlie and motivate the actions of its members De Witte, 2004 • Traditionally: Liberal and Conservative Underlying orientations: • Social Dominance orientation (Pratto et al, 1994) • Right-Wing Authoritarianism (Altemeyer, 1996) • Motivational structures and neurophysiological correlates (Jost and Amodio, 2011)

  17. Values • Values are hierarchically organised motivational beliefs which constitute abstract goals and guide the selection or evaluation of actions, policies, people, and events. That is, values serve as standards or criteria (Schwartz, 2005) • Strong predictors of political orientation (Thoristottir et al, 2007) and vote (Caprara et al. 2006)

  18. Value orientation and voting Caprara et al, 2006 Security, power, conformity, and tradition Universalism R2 = .16

  19. Self efficacy • Internal (I am competent when it comes to politics) • External (The system is responsive to attempts to influence it) E.g. Finkel, 1985 • Collective self efficacy (We can make a difference, e.g. Yeich and Levine,1994)

  20. Psychosocial factors influencing vote Social Identity Theory (SIT, Tajfel, 1981) • Social group membership and identification • Self Stereotypingand Identity Salience • Stereotyping of candidates (McDermott, 1998)

  21. Relative importance of factors ITANES, 2006 in Catellani, 2011

  22. Exercise 2 • In groups, identify one quadrant of the model proposed earlier (Catellani, 2011 based on Rokkan,1982) and propose measures for at least three constructs (15’) • Compare and evaluate measures among groups looking at the same quadrant, selecting one set of measures for inclusion (15’) • Pass the resulting instrument to a different group who did not choose the same quadrant (10’)

  23. Evaluating scales: validity ad reliability • Factor analysis Helps identifying underlying factors measured by a set of items • Reliability coefficient (Alpha) Provides an indication of the internal consistency of a scale

  24. Predicting intention to vote (or actual vote) • Logistic regression Useful to explore the direct influence that one (or more) predictor/s has/have on the variable of interest • Path Analysis Useful to establish patterns of relationships between predictors of the variables of interest • Hierarchical Linear Modeling Useful to explore patterns of relationships between predictors, when these are at different – and hierarchically organised - levels

  25. Summary and Conclusion • Voting behaviour is a complex phenomenon influenced by a series of factors • Individuals do not necessarily base their decisions on objective and stable judgements • Psychology in general, and political psychology in particular offers useful insights

  26. Keep in touch • E-mail s.coen[at]salford.ac.uk • FacebookSharon Coen • LinkedIn sharon_coen • Twitter coen_sharon

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