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CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)

CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability). Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Three key foci: Monsoon intraseasonal variability (mechanisms, simulations, predictions, predictability; dates back to when Webster and Slingo were chairs )

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CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)

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  1. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) • Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel • Three key foci: • Monsoon intraseasonal variability (mechanisms, simulations, predictions, predictability; dates back to when Webster and Slingo were chairs) • Climate change impacts in the monsoon (simulations, underpinning science, model evaluation, downscaling) • Observational programs (fundamental mechanisms) and observing networks, (IOP/RAMA array, again dates back to Webster-Slingo era)

  2. Recent/ongoing activities • Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (motivated to fill perceived gap in CHFP) • Promoted workshops (jointly with YOTC, MJO Task Force, GEWEX) Upcoming IWM-4 in Macau jointly with WWRP Monsoon Panel and MJO Task Force • Coordinated CMIP evaluation • Promotion/planning/coordination of observing programs with focus on ISV (AMY, CINDY) and Indian Ocean Observing network • Active role in MJO Task Force (focus on boreal summer monsoon ISV metrics) • Active role in GASS MJO simulation/prediction project • Promotion of Decadal Variability of Monsoons (workshop and review article) plus linkage to paleo-community

  3. Possible S2S-AAMP activities • Propose to include S2S in AAMP/YOTC/MJOTF workshop/meeting on monsoon intraseasonal prediction 2014 • highlight results from ISVHE • coordinated evaluation of ISVHE hindcasts • Include a monsoon session in first S2S Predictability Workshop

  4. Future of AAMP considering Proposed CLIVAR Research Challenges 2015-2020 Intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability and predictability of monsoon systems Decadal variability and predictability of ocean and climate variability Trends, nonlinearities and extreme events Marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems Dynamics of regional sea level variability …

  5. Putting CLIVAR Research Challenges in Context of WCRP Grand Challenges Intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability and predictability of monsoon systemsLead the WCRP Grand Challenge ‘regional predictability’Contribute to GEWEX lead Grand Challenge ‘water’ Decadal variability and predictability of ocean and climate variabilityLead the WCRP Grand Challenge ‘regional predictability’ Trends, nonlinearities and extreme eventsContribute to GEWEX lead Grand Challenge ‘extreme events’ Marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems Dynamics of regional sea level variabilityLead the WCRP Grand Challenge ‘regional sea level’

  6. Proposed (2014 - ) Core capabilities Research challenges Working Group on Ocean Model Development I-S-I variability and predictability of monsoon systems CLIVAR Synthesis and Observations Panel Decadal climate variability and predictability Atlantic Implementation Panel Marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems Pacific Implementation Panel Dynamics of regional sea level variability Indian O. Implementation Panel Southern O. Implementation Panel Trends, nonlinearities and extreme events Knowledge Exchange and Capacity Building Note AAMP is gone, but AAMP suggests to retain

  7. Proposal for a Pan-WCRP Monsoon Panel • A single high-level WCRP panel to coordinate Monsoon Research Across all of WCRP • Ocean-atmosphere would be emphasized in CLIVAR AAMP (retain) • Land-Atmos covered in GEWEX (probably spread across several areas) • Links to WWRP/S2S/WGSIP on prediction through AAMP • Initial implementation: • Members from AAMP, VAMOS and VACS • Also GEWEX, SPARC, WGSIP, WGCM, and other CLIVAR regional panels • Would thus oversee current AAMP/GEWEX activities, MAHASRI, IASCLIP, AMMA … • Would foster workshops and other targeted (limited lifetime) projects

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