SPACE WEATHER TECHNOLOGY BRANCH

1. SPACE WEATHER TECHNOLOGY BRANCH Maj Timothy Nobis Chief, Space Weather Tech AFWA/DNXS 3 Mar 04

2. Mission • Pursues and Leverages Latest Space Weather Technology • Assists in identifying AFW space weather shortfalls • Assists in guiding AF Space Weather Research • Integrates New Scientific Techniques into Analysis and Modeling efforts • Provides technical oversight to contract programs

3. DNXS – Space Weather Technology Branch Space Weather Technology Branch Maj Timothy Nobis IMA Vacant Deputy Branch Chief Capt Leonard Berman MSgt On Loan to DNXT UCAR Visiting Scientist Ms. Shauna Kinkela Vacant SSgt Term Hire Dr. Fred Eriksen

4. Partnerships • Issues are too big for any one agency • DNXS is stepping out to partner with as many agencies as possible to leverage capability • NRL • USGS • NGDC • CISM • Universities • AFIT Also • Private Sector • CCMC • AFRL • SEC/NOAA • SMC • NASA/MFSC • UPOS • BEI

5. Project Areas • Data Collection and Acquisition • Space Weather Models • Data Fusion • Algorithms • Visualization • Verification / Metrics

6. Project Areas Data Collection and Acquisition

7. Data Collection and Acquisition • DNXS provides technical input to data collection and exploitation as required by the program manager • Instrumental in the acquisition of magnetometer data for Dst calculation • Took the lead in obtaining interim real-time Dst data feed • Conducted a study to determine the potential usefulness of NASA research satellites in ops • Battle Lab initiative to obtain data from TIMED / STEREO • Conducted a technical study of ionosonde data types to assist with visualization efforts • Heavily engaged in technical aspects of DMSP / NPOESS / GOES sensor products • Providing technical oversight to the Ionospheric Effects Characterization and SEON way ahead efforts

8. Project Areas Space Weather Models

9. Space Weather Models • Current state is largely one of conditional climatology driven by global indices • Current AFWA modeling capability is set to increase dramatically in the next year • Starting the transition away from climatology towards assimilative, physics based modeling • Leveraging terrestrial insight to speed growth • DNXS is starting to play a critical role in the model tech transition process

10. Ionosphere – Current Capabilities • Large Scale: PRISM • Specification only • Climo adjusted from limited real-time data and conditioned by a global index • Scintillation Scale: WBMOD • Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index • Auroral Oval: • Hardy oval specification only

11. Ionosphere – Future Capabilities • Large Scale: Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model: IOC Sep 06 • Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL manages the program • Provides 24 hour forecast • Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for FY08 • Scintillation Scale • WBMOD upgrade planned near term • DNXS actively seeking to leverage a data driven model • Auroral Oval: • UPOS OVATION model FY06 will provide improved specification and 24 hr forecast capability

12. Magnetosphere • Current Capability: Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM) • Near Term Developments: • UPOS Radiation Belt Environment (RBE)model FY06 • UPOS Relativistic Electron Prediction (REP) model Dec 05 • Longer Term: • Data Assimilative Magnetospheric model (DNXS pursuing options) • South Atlantic Anomaly specification and prediction (SMC led effort)

13. Solar Wind / Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IFM) • Current Capability: Limited access to the HAF Model • Near Term Developments: Working to integrate the Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model IOC Jan 06 • UPOS effort from University Alaska-Fairbanks • DNXS worked extensively with code developers • DNXS working an initiative (with AFIT personnel) to upgrade the solar source data

14. Solar Surface • Efforts to specify and predict the solar surface are hampered • Lack of fundamental understanding • Lack of observations at necessary scales • Massive spatial scale impedes modeling efforts • Working with SEON way ahead • DNXS is looking at current efforts for possible modeling candidates • Solutions will likely be compartmentalized

15. Thermosphere • AFWA currently lacks specification and prediction capability • AFSPC currently runs High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) • DNXS is exploring candidates for integration

16. Coupling Efforts • Ultimate goal is a unified modeling system from Sun to Earth • Effort is young, maturity is a ways off • DNXS is monitoring efforts of university groups involved in coupled systems • Especially looking at the CISM group • DNXS is also part of the Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) initiative which is sponsoring an effort to couple GAIM and HAF

17. Project Areas Data Fusion

18. Data Fusion • Space Environmental products are utilized to produce a number of ‘data fusion’ products which translate the space environment into impact related output • Current efforts include: GPS Error and High Altitude Radiation maps, plus HF Illumination and D-Region Absorption products • Actively seeking other products including an enhance GPS Error product and selected capability from the Space Environmental Effects Fusion System (SEEFS)

19. Project Areas Algorithms

20. Algorithms • Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) Index: • AFWA is pursuing a capability to calculate Dst organically • DNXS is heavily involved in data acquisition and development of the required algorithm • Dst Prediction Algorithm: Involved in an effort to implement the UPOS developed Dst Prediction Algorithm • Integrated a UPOS developed Kp Algorithm • Working to integrate the UPOS forecasted Kp Algorithm

21. Project Areas Visualizations

22. Visualizations • DNXS works closely with elements in DNXT to develop and refine visualizations • Working closely in with WIDDS and GIS visualization efforts • Completing a project provide technical advice for future visualization of ionosonde data

23. Project Areas Verification / Metrics

24. Verification / Metrics • Current Capability: • Currently use UPOS developed verification program to verify indices forecasted by XOGX • DNXS has recently completed a rewrite of the software to align with current AFWA architecture • Future Needs: As modeling capability comes on line there is a need to develop an automated verification and metric tracking program • Will be a top priority of DNXS over the next year • Borrow heavily from the existing process in DNXM • Very little being done in the way of operation verification in space environment today • Will require true innovation to create an actionable program