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March 13, 2004

Tidal Wave II: Implications for Outreach and Retention for California Higher Education Alan Nishio California State University, Long Beach. March 13, 2004. Demographics. California’s Population Size. 34 million 14 million larger than the next size state (Texas)

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March 13, 2004

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  1. Tidal Wave II: Implications for Outreach and Retention for California Higher EducationAlan NishioCalifornia State University, Long Beach March 13, 2004

  2. Demographics

  3. California’s Population Size • 34 million • 14 million larger than the next size state (Texas) • One of nine Americans calls California home

  4. California’s Population Growth • Past fifty years, population has more than tripled. • For the past decade, the number of new Californians each year would be the size of the City of Long Beach (450,000+) • By 2020, population is projected to reach 42-50 million

  5. California’s Population, 1940-2040 (in millions) 6.9 15.9 23.8 33.9 45.5 63.0 Source: California Department of Finance

  6. California Demographics • First in Population Among States • Second in African American Population • First in Latino Population: 1 in 3 Latino children in U.S. live in California • First in Asian population: 1 in 2 Asian children in the U.S. live in California • One of every four Californians is an immigrant • Without immigration, California’s population would decline

  7. California’s Ethnic Diversity, 2000 • 50% White • 31% Hispanic/Latino • 11.5% Asian/Pacific Islander • 6.8% African American

  8. Ethnicity of California Population

  9. Los Angeles County

  10. Los Angeles County is.. • The largest metropolitan area with 9.6 million residents, 3% of the nation. • 27% of the population are children and teens under age 18. • The world’s 18th largest economy. • Five of the top ten occupations in the number of new jobs pay less than poverty level wages. One-third of those in poverty are “working poor.”

  11. Racial/Ethnic Composition of California Newborns, 1997 Source: California Department of Health Services

  12. Ethnic Breakdown of California’s Population, 2000 vs. 2040 2000 2040 10% 7% 12% 6% 32% 26% 57% 50% Source: “Which Way California”- James Irvine Foundation

  13. Poverty in California

  14. Poverty in California • In 1970, 1.9 million people were poor in California. By 2000, the number of poor had more than doubled to 4.37 million. • Poverty has declined substantially in the last few years, yet poverty remains higher in California than the rest of the nation.

  15. Poverty Rates Adjusted by Housing Costs, California and the Rest of the Nation, 1996-2000 Source: Public Policy Institute of California

  16. Poverty and California’s Children • California’s children are now 60% people of color • One in four children in California is born to an unmarried mother • The highest in the percentage of children living in poverty… 19% or roughly 1.75 million children. • If there were a city containing only California’s poor under the age of 18, it would be the third largest city in the state.

  17. Ethnic Composition of All California Children and Those Living in Poverty

  18. The Linguistic Landscape of California’s Schools

  19. Californians by Place of Birth, 1990

  20. Total English Learner K-12 Students, 1981-2000 Source: California Department of Education

  21. California K-12 Percentage of English Learners Source: California Department of Education

  22. Percentage Increase in English Learner Population by Region, 1981-2000 Source: California Department of Education

  23. Educational Outcomes

  24. Education of Mothers of Children Born in 1997 by Ethnicity Source: California Department of Health Services

  25. Reading Proficiency for Grade 8 Public School Students by Ethnicity, 1998 Source: Ballator and Jerry, NAEP 1998 Reading State Report for California, 1999

  26. Math Proficiency for Grade 8 Public School Students by Ethnicity, 1996 Source: Reese et. al., NAEP 1996 Mathematics State Report for California, 1997

  27. Educational Opportunities

  28. State Education Spending Per Pupil

  29. Characteristics of Top and Bottom Quintiles of California Public High Schools Top Quintile Bottom Quintile Number of Schools 151 151 Percent urban 12% 54% Percent suburban 69% 19% Percent receiving AFDC support 5% 28% Percent limited English proficient 7% 31% Percent father w/ h.s. diploma or higher 90% 36% 4-year completion rate 91% 78% College prep course enrollment rate 61% 48% Percent of seniors taking SAT 56% 33% Average SAT score 1007 715 Percent Latino/Black/Amer. Ind. 17% 79% Source: California Academic Partnership Program

  30. Percent of 12th Grade Graduates in California Public Schools Completing All Courses Required for U.C. and/or C.S.U. Entrance Source: California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Unit

  31. Tidal Wave II

  32. Tidal Wave II • California’s College-Age Population is Growing Rapidly The 18-19 age group is expected to increase 3.48% each year, or 2½ times as fast as the general population (1.37%) The 20-24 age group is expected to increase 2.62% each year, or about twice as fast as the general population.

  33. California Public High School Graduates Completing All Courses Required for UC and/or CSU Entrance Source: California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Unit

  34. Tidal Wave II: CSU Enrollment Projections 37% increase by 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: California State University, ,Analytic Studies Unit

  35. CSULB Freshman Application Demand and Enrollment CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CSULB

  36. CSULBSummary of Key Enrollment Management Issues CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CSULB CSU Board of Trustees Policy CSU Commitment to All Eligible Students Admissions Guarantee to a Local CSU Commitment to Diversity California’s Budget and the Master Plan for Higher Education

  37. Implications for the California State University CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Affirming the importance of access and the traditional role of the CSU • Access must lead to success: Building an environment for student success

  38. Orientation and Transition Dr. Dawn Person Professor, College of Education California State University, Long Beach

  39. Purpose CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • To retain students • To engage students • To inform students • To make meaningful connections • To introduce academic programs • To develop meaningful friendships and relationships • To encourage social and academic integration into the college community

  40. CHALLENGES FOR ORIENTATION PROGRAMS CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Increased diversity of students • Receptivity of campus community • Degree campus culture embraces diversity • Institutional support for student transitions into, through, and out of college • Similarities and differences among people are honored

  41. Program Issues CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Institutional commitment • Institutional climate • Models based on student development theory • On-going assessment and evaluation

  42. CONTRIBUTIVE FACTORS TOWARD RETENTION CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Entry • Student’s perception of the institution • Faculty/student interaction • Institutional climate • Educational and occupational aspirations • Student characteristics and behaviors • Campus involvement

  43. CONTRIBUTIVE FACTORS TOWARD RETENTION (CONTINUED) CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Peer interaction • Student culture • Academic culture • Support (internal and external) • Social/cultural support • Financial support

  44. Retention Successes CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • High levels of satisfaction with program services • Summer programs • Study groups • Career development/seminars • Faculty role models • Effective collaboration between academic and student affairs

  45. Five Salient Results CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • SAT scores were never among the significant correlates • Positive college adjustment variables = most frequent correlates of better academic success, but college comfort variables = largest component • Money and family disadvantage were as potent predictors of higher GPA as background variables • GPA was associated with working and spending time actively engaged in the environment • Negative adjustment variables were accounted for by dissatisfaction with program services

  46. Response to Challenges for Orientation Programs CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Separate Programs • Extended Programs • Schedule Revisions • Break-away Sessions • Self-sharing • Immediate reassurance • (Jacobs & Bowman, 2003) • (Hatch, 2003)

  47. Theoretical Foundations for Consideration CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Van Gennep (1961) • Durkheim (1951) • Astin(1984) • Banning (1989) and Lewin (1936) • Bean and Eaton (2001) • Chickering and Reisser (1993) • Fleming (1984) • Rendon (1994) • Tinto (1993)

  48. The Question to Ponder CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH • Beyond race, class, gender, age, sexuality and religion, what are other differences found in student populations? • Given what we know and understand about serving diverse students, what is the role of orientation in providing responsive programs? • How do we build responsive programs that address “within group” differences?

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