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How do you choose which longitudinal dataset to use?

How do you choose which longitudinal dataset to use?. Research Methods Festival, Oxford 2006 Dr Jane Elliott Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education

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How do you choose which longitudinal dataset to use?

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  1. How do you choose which longitudinal dataset to use? Research Methods Festival, Oxford 2006 Dr Jane Elliott Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education Thanks to Nick Buck; Paul Boyle; Louisa Blackwell; James Banks; Liz Rayner; Andy Ness for providing summaries of longitudinal studies discussed here

  2. How long? Who? What? Structure of presentation • Key data sets covered in this presentation • Short, medium and long term changes • Focus on age groups • Ethnicity • Individuals and households • Intergenerational effects • Topics • Health • Employment and finances

  3. Longitudinal datasets covered • British Household Panel Study • ONS Longitudinal Study (E&W) & Scottish longitudinal study • British Birth Cohort Studies • Families and Children Study (DWP) • English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) • Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

  4. The British Household Panel Study • Data was first collected in 1991 and continues to be collected annually • Core questions remain the same each year but some new topics are introduced. • Original sample size was over 5000 households, covering individuals of all ages (approximately 10,000) individuals • The same group of individuals (OSMs) are interviewed each year. If they have formed a new household the other members of this new household are also interviewed • Once children reach age 16 they are also interviewed • From 1994 the Survey has been supplemented by an additional youth survey for those aged 11-15 in the household • Major strength of BHPS is that we have information about all members of the household • Data is available via the data archive

  5. BHPS: examples of topics covered • Values and attitudes (political, family, religious) • Domestic division of labour • Social life • Education and Employment • Earnings and income • Family structure • Detailed documentation available via the web

  6. The ONS Longitudinal Study (England and Wales) • Links Census data and administrative data for 1% of the population of England and Wales • 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 census data • Births, marriages and deaths • Health related (e.g. cancer & cause of death) • Data on approx one million individuals Information available in the LS for most Censuses: • Age, sex, marital status, country of birth • Ethnicity since 1991 • Family, household (e.g. car access), communal establishment type • Housing: tenure, rooms and amenities • Qualifications, economic activity, occupation, industry and social class • Travel to work and 1 year migration • Data is not available via the data archive but potential users should approach CeLSius http://www.celsius.lshtm.ac.uk/

  7. Entries 1971-2001 New Births 228,000 Immigrations 122,000 Exits 1971-2001 Deaths 201,000 Embarkations 32,000 1981 534,000 sample members found at 1981 Census 1991 543,000 sample members found at 1991 Census Events: April 1971 to April 2002 Births to sample women 215,000 Births to sample men 49,500 Infant Deaths 2,500 Widow(er)hoods 70,000 Cancer registrations78,000 LS Structure 1971 Original sample: 530,000 members; selected from 1971 Census 2001 540,000 sample members found at 2001 Census

  8. Event information in the LS Event data available in July 2006: • Death including cause of death (to Dec 2004) • Live and still births to women in the sample including birthweight, social class of parents, country of birth of mother (to Dec 2004) • Infant mortality: deaths of babies born to women in the sample (to Dec 2004) • International migration including immigration, emigration and re-entry (to Feb 2005) • Cancer including site and type (to Dec 2003) • Claimant Count (Claimants and claims to Dec 2004), pre-release access for testing

  9. The Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) • Links Census data and administrative data for 5.5% of the Scottish population • 1991 and 2001 census data • Births, marriages and deaths • Health related (cancer & hospital admissions) • Data on approx 270,000 individuals • Funded by the Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Higher Education Funding Council, Scottish Executive, ESRC (£2.6M) • Directed by Prof Paul Boyle (University of St Andrews) • Access arrangements similar to ONS LS and see http://www.lscs.ac.uk/sls/access.htm for more details

  10. British Birth Cohort Studies • Fully representative samples of the British population • Based on one week’s births - approximately 17,000 babies • Followed up from birth into adulthood • Four British Birth Cohort Studies • 1946 : National Survey of Health and Development (MRC funded) • Data not archived, access via collaboration with NSHD team • 1958 : National Child Development Study • 1970 : British Cohort Study 1970 • 2000/1: Millennium Cohort Study Housed at CLS & data available from UK data archive

  11. 1946 Birth Cohort Study • National Maternity Survey to investigate costs of childbirth and quality of associated health care (16,500 births) after WW2 • A sample of 5,362 of this original survey have been followed over time • 21 contacts most recently at age 53 • Continuously funded by MRC since 1962 • Approximately 3,500 remain in the study

  12. 1958 Birth Cohort Study • Representative sample of over 17,000 infants born in March 1958 • Sample followed at ages 7, 11, 16, 23, 33, 42 (prospective study) • Multipurpose study with a focus on the life course • Retrospective life history data collected at age 33 • work history • partnership history • fertility history • housing history • Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating • Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years • Data available via UK Data Archive

  13. BCS70: 1970 Birth Cohort Study • Representative sample of over 16,000 infants born in 1970 • Sample followed at ages 5, 10, 16, 26, 30, 34 • Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating • Multipurpose study with a focus on the life course • Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years • Co-ordination with NCDS (since 2000) facilitates cross cohort comparisons • Data available via UK Data Archive

  14. Millennium Cohort Study • Representative sample from one year’s births (18,553) • Clustered sample • Disproportionate representation of: (a) disadvantaged areas (b) ethnic minorities • Boosts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland • Data collected at 9 months, 3 years, 5 years and planned sweep at age 7 • Topics covered include: pregnancy labour and delivery; child’s health and development; parents’ health; education and employment; childcare; friends and grandparents. • Data available via UK Data Archive

  15. Families and Children Study (FACS) • Refreshed annual panel study of families with dependent children (7000 families, 13000 children) • Sampled from Child Benefit records, clustered in 150 postcode districts • Mother is main respondent, partner also interviewed and information collected on all household members. Child self-completion questionnaire in some waves • Fieldwork carried out annually since 1999 by National Centre for Social Research • 1999 and 2000 only low income families were sampled, 2001 all families were included • Managed by DWP, co-sponsored by HM Revenue and Customs, Department for Education and Skills, Office of Deputy Prime Minister and Department for Transport

  16. Questionnaire coverage Parents: • Partnership status and history • Health, disability and caring • Child maintenance • Housing • Education and training • Work, jobsearch, activity history and future work prospects • Benefits and tax credits • Savings, debt, expenditure, pension provision

  17. Questionnaire coverage: Children • Schooling • ‘Problems’ (eg bullying/drugs) and special needs • Health • Use of local services • Parental aspirations • Childcare arrangements • Child self-completion: ‘happiness’ and ‘attitudes’ • ( follow up ends when child reaches 16 or 18 if in full-time education)

  18. Methodology • FACS is a refreshed panel design, so that both longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis is possible. • Re-contact is attempted with all existing sample members every year, even if they move out of the area. Lose members through attrition and ‘ageing out’ (children no longer dependent) • Sample is refreshed each year with families who have had their first child in the last year plus families who have moved in to sample areas (in order to make sample representative cross-sectionally) • FACS data now being linked to National Pupil Database and DWP/HMRC admin data making datasets even richer. • Data available via the UK data archive

  19. English Longitudinal Study of Ageing design basics • Representative sample of the English 50+ population in the household sector at baseline (wave1 2002/3) • Repeated observations every two years (panel data) • Face to face interviews with CAPI instrument • 70-80 minute interviews per adult • Additional nurse visits every second wave • Refreshment with 50-53 year old cohort in 2006/7

  20. ELSA wave 1 age breakdown of sample members

  21. ELSA Broad questionnaire coverage • Demographics: household & individual • Physical and mental health: disease and symptoms • Social participation & social support • Housing • Employment and earnings • Pensions and retirement • Income and assets • Cognitive function • Psychosocial; quality of life • Expectations ELSA is also available via the UK data archive

  22. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) • A.k.a. Children of the nineties • Cohort study • Pregnant with a due date 1.4.91-31.12.92 • Resident in Avon • Enrolled if mother interested in taking part and completing at least 1 questionnaire • Enrolled pregnancies 14,541 Being followed 13,801 mothers, 13,971 children Golding J.Paed Perinat Epidemiol 2001; 15:74-87. http://www.alspac.bristol.ac.uk.

  23. ALSPAC DATA • Self completion questionnaires • Health records • Biological samples • Environmental monitoring • Education records • Hands on assessments • Data not currently available via the UK data archive

  24. Websites for further information about longitudinal studies • British Household Panel Study • http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ulsc/bhps/ • ONS Longitudinal Study (E&W) & Scottish longitudinal study • http://www.celsius.lshtm.ac.uk/ • http://www.lscs.ac.uk/sls/ • British Birth Cohort Studies • http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/ • http://www.nshd.mrc.ac.uk/ • Families and Children Study (DWP) • http://www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/facs/ • English Longitudinal Study of Aging • http://www.ifs.org.uk/elsa/ • Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children • http://www.alspac.bristol.ac.uk/welcome/index.shtml • UK Data archive • http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/Introduction.asp ESDS Longitudinal http://www.esds.ac.uk/longitudinal/

  25. Short, medium and long term change • Longitudinal data can be used to… • Examine short term changes e.g. through repeated measures • Describe developmental trajectories • Examine the interrelationship between different life domains e.g. health and employment; family background and educational achievement • Understand the long term impact of early life experiences and decisions • Distinguish between age effects and cohort effects

  26. Short, medium and long term change • In order to examine change over the short term, longitudinal studies need to collect data every one or two years • For example: • British Household Panel Study • FACS • Millennium Cohort Study • ALSPAC

  27. Examples of research on short term outcomes • FACS • Evans, M., Harkness, S. and Ortiz, R. (2004) Lone parents cycling between work and benefits, DWP Research Report No. 217, Leeds: Corporate Document Services. • Berthoud, R., Bryan, M. and Bardasi, E. (2004) The dynamics of deprivation: the relationship between income and material deprivation over time, DWP Research Report No. 219, Leeds: Corporate Document Services. • BHPS • Jonathan Burton, Sean Carey (October 2004) 'The Influence of Mass Media in Shaping Public Opinion on the European Union'. Political Studies, 53(3), pp 623-641. • Lorenzo Cappellari, Stephen P. Jenkins (September 2004) 'Modelling Low Income Transitions'. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(5), pp 593-610. • Terrance Wade, David J. Pevalin (June 2004) 'Marital Transitions and Mental Health'. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 45, pp 155-170.

  28. Examples of research focusing on medium term change • Almost all the studies discussed could arguably be used to examine change over the medium term e.g. 10 years or so • Examples of research • David J. Pevalin, John F. Ermisch (November 2004) 'Cohabiting Unions, Repartnering and Mental Health'. Psychological Medicine, 34(8), pp 1553-1559. (BHPS) • PARSONS, T.J., MANOR, O. and POWER, C. (2005) Changes in diet and physical activity in the 1990s in a large British sample (1958 birth cohort). European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 59(1), 49-56 • Blackwell, L, D Guinea-Martin. Occupational segregation by sex and ethnicity in England and Wales, 1991 to 2001. Labour Market Trends 2005; (December) (ONS LS) • Grundy, E. Co-residence of mid-life children with their elderly parents in England and Wales: changes between 1981 and 1991. Population Studies 2000; 54: 193-206. (ONS LS)

  29. Research focusing on long term changes and outcomes • Cohort studies are perhaps best suited for examining long term changes • By focusing on a single cohort it is possible to look at the long term consequences of early life experiences • consequences of divorce for children • Impact of birthweight on health in later life • Comparison of cohorts can enable an understanding of change at a societal level

  30. Examples of research focusing on long term changes and outcomes (using the British Birth Cohort studies) • ELY, M., RICHARDS, M.P.M., WADSWORTH, M.E.J. and ELLIOTT, B.J. (1999) Secular changes in the association of parental divorce and children’s educational attainment – evidence from three British birth cohorts. Journal of Social Policy, 28(3), 437-455 • BARTLEY, M., POWER, C., BLANE, D., SMITH, G.D. and SHIPLEY, M. (1994) Birthweight and later socioeconomic disadvantage - evidence from the 1958 British cohort study. British Medical Journal, 309(6967), 1475-1478 • HYPPONEN, E., DAVEY SMITH, G. and POWER, C. (2003) Effects of grandmothers' smoking in pregnancy on birth weight: intergenerational cohort study. British Medical Journal, 327, 898 • BYNNER, J. and JOSHI, H. (2002) Equality and opportunity in education: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 birth cohort study. Oxford Review of Education, 28(4), 405-425 • Bartley, M, I Plewis. Accumulated labour market disadvantage and limiting long term illness: data from the 1971-1991 ONS Longitudinal Study. International Journal of Epidemiology 2002; 31: 336-341. • Egerton, M, M Savage. Age stratification and class formation: a longitudinal study of the social mobility of young men and women 1971-1991. Work, Employment and Society 2000; 14 (1): 23-49. • Kuh D, Power C, Blane D, Bartley M (2004). Socioeconomic pathways between childhood and adult health. In Kuh D, Ben-Shlomo Y (eds). A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology: tracing the origins of ill-health from early to adult life, pp.371-395, Oxford University Press, 2nd edition.

  31. Coverage of different age groups • The Older population • ELSA (50 years +) • The 1946 Cohort Study (60 years old data last collected at age 53) • Midlife • 1958 cohort study • 1970 cohort study • Parents in FACS • Parents of MCS children • Adolescence • ALSPAC • Youth component of BHPS • Sub-sample of FACS • Early life • Millennium Cohort Study (Children now aged 5 and 6) • Early sweeps of ALSPAC • Sub-sample of FACS

  32. Coverage of minority ethnic groups • ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales, large enough to have a good representation of minority ethnic groups • Millennium Cohort Study: over-sampling of wards with high proportion of minority ethnic groups • Other longitudinal studies do not have good coverage of minority ethnic groups, hence plans for a dedicated longitudinal study focused around minority ethnic population

  33. Individuals and households • Most datasets contain at least minimal information about other members of the household • Some studies are specifically designed to look at household dynamics and give equal weight to all those in the household • We can understand this in terms of a continuum…

  34. Household focus Individual focus BHPS 1958 cohort FACS MCS 1946 cohort 1970 cohort ONS LS ELSA Scottish LS ALSPAC

  35. Intergenerational effects • The British Birth cohort studies are particularly suited for examining intergenerational effects • 1946 cohort has information about Cohort members’ parents • 1958 cohort has information about Cohort members’ parents (e.g. height, education, social class) and also about the children of a one in three sample of cohort members’ children (in 1991) • 1970 cohort has information about Cohort members’ parents and also about the children of a random sample of one in two cohort members’ children (in 2004) • MCS, FACS, BHPS and ALSPAC will have information about parents and children but no data on parents when they were children.

  36. Topics • The longitudinal resources discussed all cover a range of topics but different studies place different emphasis on economic, health and social factors • Could think about this in terms of a continuum between more and less detailed studies and also more focus on health or on finances/social factors • The role of education and qualifications in later outcomes is also more dominant in some studies than others

  37. More detailed (Smaller samples) 1946 cohort MCS FACS BHPS ALSPAC 1958 cohort ELSA 1970 cohort Scottish LS ONS LS Economic and social circumstances Health Less detailed (larger samples)

  38. Useful resources for Longitudinal research • http://www.esds.ac.uk/longitudinal/introduction.asp • http://www.longitudinal.stir.ac.uk/Links/datasets_non_british.html • http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/Tracking_v8.pdf • http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ulsc/index.php • http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/

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