CMSC 671 Fall 2001

1. CMSC 671Fall 2001 Class #20 – Thursday, November 8

2. Today’s class • Conditional independence • Bayesian networks • Network structure • Conditional probability tables • Conditional independence • Inference in Bayesian networks

3. Conditional Independence and Bayesian Networks Chapters 13/14 (2/e)

4. Conditional independence • Last time we talked about absolute independence: • A and B are independent if P(A  B) = P(A) P(B); equivalently, P(A) = P(A | B) and P(B) = P(B | A) • A and B are conditionally independent given C if • P(A  B | C) = P(A | C) P(B | C) • This lets us decompose the joint distribution: • P(A  B  C) = P(A | C) P(B | C) P(C) • In the example from last time, Moon-Phase and Burglary are conditionally independent given Light-Level • Conditional independence is weaker than absolute independence, but still useful in decomposing the full joint probability distribution

5. Bayesian Belief Networks (BNs) • Definition: BN = (DAG, CPD) • DAG: directed acyclic graph (BN’s structure) • Nodes: random variables (typically binary or discrete, but methods also exist to handle continuous variables) • Arcs: indicate probabilistic dependencies between nodes (lack of link signifies conditional independence) • CPD: conditional probability distribution (BN’s parameters) • Conditional probabilities at each node, usually stored as a table (conditional probability table, or CPT) • Root nodes are a special case – no parents, so just use priors in CPD:

6. a b c d e Example BN P(A) = 0.001 P(C|A) = 0.2 P(C|~A) = 0.005 P(B|A) = 0.3 P(B|~A) = 0.001 P(D|B,C) = 0.1 P(D|B,~C) = 0.01 P(D|~B,C) = 0.01 P(D|~B,~C) = 0.00001 P(E|C) = 0.4 P(E|~C) = 0.002 Note that we only specify P(A) etc., not P(¬A), since they have to add to one

7. Topological semantics • A node is conditionally independent of its non-descendants given its parents • A node is conditionally independent of all other nodes in the network given its parents, children, and children’s parents (also known as its Markov blanket) • The method called d-separation can be applied to decide whether a set of nodes X is independent of another set Y, given a third set Z

8. Independence and chaining • Independence assumption where q is any set of variables (nodes) other than and its successors • blocks influence of other nodes on and its successors (q influences only through variables in ) • With this assumption, the complete joint probability distribution of all variables in the network can be represented by (recovered from) local CPD by chaining these CPD q

9. a b c d e Chaining: Example Computing the joint probability for all variables is easy: P(a, b, c, d, e) = P(e | a, b, c, d) P(a, b, c, d) by Bayes’ theorem = P(e | c) P(a, b, c, d) by indep. assumption = P(e | c) P(d | a, b, c) P(a, b, c) = P(e | c) P(d | b, c) P(c | a, b) P(a, b) = P(e | c) P(d | b, c) P(c | a) P(b | a) P(a)

10. Direct inference with BNs • Now suppose we just want the probability for one variable • Belief update method • Original belief (no variables are instantiated): Use prior probability p(xi) • If xi is a root, then P(xi) is given directly in the BN (CPT at Xi) • Otherwise, • P(xi) = Σπi P(xi | πi) P(πi) • In this equation, P(xi | πi) is given in the CPT, but computing P(πi) is complicated

11. a b c d e Computing πi: Example • P (d) = P(d | b, c) P(b, c) • P(b, c) = P(a, b, c) + P(¬a, b, c) (marginalizing)= P(b | a, c) p (a, c) + p(b | ¬a, c) p(¬a, c) (product rule)= P(b | a) P(c | a) P(a) + P(b | ¬a) P(c | ¬a) P(¬a) • If some variables are instantiated, can “plug that in” and reduce amount of marginalization • Still have to marginalize over all values of uninstantiated parents – not computationally feasible with large networks

12. Representational extensions • Compactly representing CPTs • Noisy-OR • Noisy-MAX • Adding continuous variables • Discretization • Use density functions (usually mixtures of Gaussians) to build hybrid Bayesian networks (with discrete and continuous variables)

13. Inference tasks • Simple queries: Computer posterior marginal P(Xi | E=e) • E.g., P(NoGas | Gauge=empty, Lights=on, Starts=false) • Conjunctive queries: • P(Xi, Xj | E=e) = P(Xi | e=e) P(Xj | Xi, E=e) • Optimal decisions:Decision networks include utility information; probabilistic inference is required to find P(outcome | action, evidence) • Value of information: Which evidence should we seek next? • Sensitivity analysis:Which probability values are most critical? • Explanation: Why do I need a new starter motor?

14. Approaches to inference • Exact inference • Enumeration • Variable elimination • Clustering / join tree algorithms • Approximate inference • Stochastic simulation / sampling methods • Markov chain Monte Carlo methods • Genetic algorithms • Neural networks • Simulated annealing • Mean field theory