Chapter 16

2. Chapter 16 © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

3. Future Directions © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

4. Future Criminology The study of likely futures as they relate to crime and its control © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

5. Future Criminology Globalization Makes it impossible for U.S. policymakers to ignore criminal activity in other countries… © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

6. Future Criminology Globalization …especially where crime is perpetuated by transnational criminal organizations © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

7. Future Criminology Transnational crime Unlawful activity undertaken and supported by organized criminal groups… © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

8. Future Criminology Transnational crime … operating across national boundaries © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

9. Techniques of Futures Research Aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on: • Forecasting from the past supported by mathematical models © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

10. Techniques of Futures Research • Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject matter • Systematic use of expert judgment © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

11. Techniques of Futures Research • A systems- analytical approach to its problems © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

12. Techniques of Futures Research Futurist Perspective Principles • What we decide today will significantly affect tomorrow © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

13. Techniques of Futures Research Futurist Perspective Principles • A range of decision and planning choices is always available in the present © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

14. Techniques of Futures Research Futurist Perspective Principles • Any major decision, development, or force that effects any part of the system is likely to effect the entire system © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

15. Techniques of Futures Research Futurist Perspective Principles • Distinct trends and developments and even gradual changes cannot be ignored © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

16. Techniques of Futures Research Futurist Perspective Principles • Possible responses to potential changes must be regularly developed © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

17. Techniques of Futures Research • Trend extrapolation • Cross-impact analysis • The Delphi Method © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

18. Techniques of Futures Research • Simulations and models • Environmental scanning • Scenario writing • Strategic assessment © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

19. Future Crimes By 2025: The crimes that will have the widest, negative effects in advanced nations will increasingly be… © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

20. Future Crimes By 2025: ...economic and computer based © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

21. New Criminologies New paradigm Identify the key risk factors for offending… © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

22. New Criminologies New paradigm …and implement prevention methods to counteract them © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

23. New Criminologies Theory Integration Initial attempts to blend theories should begin at the level characteristic of those theories © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

24. New Criminologies Theory Integration • Cross-level integration • Metatheories (theories • about theories and the • theorizing process) © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

25. New Criminologies Theory Integration Research evaluations will be necessary to identify the most promising theoretical developments... © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

26. New Criminologies Theory Integration …and to craft crime control policies based upon the best scientific knowledge available © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.