Hypothesis Construction: The Basics of Variable Operationalization

1. Hypothesis Construction: The Basics of Variable Operationalization PO 390W: Research Design for Political Science

2. From Concept to Measurement • Thus far, our discussion of hypothesis has focused on conceptualization, or the process of formulating and clarifying concepts prior to any empirical investigation • However, in order to empirically test the relationships between concepts, we must achieve some difficult goals • All concepts are complex and variable; as such, they must be broken down into differential components and their variability must be made measurable • Many concepts are not directly observable; given that measurement is key to testing, we must find a way to utilize observable phenomena that reflect unobservable concepts

3. Operationalization • Stage 1: Breaking Down Concepts • Example: We have theoretical reasons to believe that democracy is causally important in many processes. But what, conceptually, is democracy? Linked to our theory, it probably involves: • Participatory capacity • Insurance of civil liberties • Presence of a civic culture • Contestability of political office • Separation of powers • By breaking down concepts, we are able to: • Comprehensively identify the specific “underpinnings” of our theoretical expectations • Generate initial expectations about what we must measure to gain a comprehensive reflection of democracy

4. Operationalization • Stage 2: Matching Conceptual Components to Observable Phenomena • Now that we’ve gotten an idea of what democracy consists of, what might its components look like in the real world? • Participatory capacity: The ability of citizens to participate in the selection and workings of their government • Insurance of civil liberties: The governmental guarantee of individual freedoms • Presence of a civic culture: Difficult – is it the willingness of the citizenry to take advantage to participatory opportunity? To respect the civil liberties of others? To actively agree on the legitimacy of government? All of the above? • Contestability of political office: The capacity of any citizen to obtain office • Separation of powers: Structural division of governmental responsibilities and limitations on the capacity of any subdivision to encroach on the responsibilities of others • Basic translation of conceptual components into generally observable phenomena

5. Operationalization • Stage 3: The Development/Selection of Useable Indicators • How are we to empirically gauge these phenomena? We select measures that are variable, regularly observable, and reflective of as many stages of our conceptualization process as possible • Participatory capacity: Presence of laws protecting voting rights • Insurance of civil liberties: Presence of laws eliminating (or minimizing) the capacity of the government to regulate or violate individuals • Presence of a civic culture: Voter turnout; political association membership; frequency of political assembly • Contestability of political office: Absence of unreasonable governmental restrictions on office-holding • Separation of powers: Presence of laws mandating and enforcing separation of governmental responsibilities (including oversight) • Refinement of generally observable phenomena into classifiable, measureable indicators

6. Measurement Characteristics • Levels of Measurement • Nominal: Categorization and numerical assignment for labeling • 0=Presidential Democracy, 1=Parliamentary Democracy; no assumption of ranking • Ordinal: Categorization and numerical assignment for comparison (greater/lesser) • 1= Undemocratic, 2=Quasi-Democratic, 3=Fully Democratic; mathematical rank ordering of outcomes • Interval: Intervals between measures represent equal distance across the entire scale • On 1-10 scale of “democracy,” difference between 1-2 same as difference between 9-10; allows identification of both level relation and magnitude • Ratio: Includes features of other levels plus an absolute reference point • Voter turnout rate; reference to both other levels and overall population

7. Measurement Characteristics • Composite Measurements • Indices and scales: Adding (normally) measures of several components to arrive at broader measure of broader concept • POLITY IV democracy measure: Ordinal scales of participation, contestability, and executive constraints added to arrive at general “democracy score” • Additional important concepts: • Exhaustivity: Must be enough categories so that virtually all items will fit into one of the categories • Mutual exclusivity: Items being classified must not fit into more than one category

8. Variable Reliability and Validity • We must pay particular attention to the “disconnect” between concepts and phenomena • Reliability: Is our operational definition measuring something consistently and dependently? • Ascertained through similar findings across different samples internal consistency assessments (splitting samples) • Validity: Does our operationalization perfectly “fit” our concept (rare)? • Must be aware of measurement error and whether it occurs randomly or systematically