J.P.CONTZEN IST, LISBOA

1. Technologies for meeting the global challenges of the 21st centuryPriorities for the current decade J.P.CONTZEN IST, LISBOA

2. The global challenges of the 21st Century (1) Two main challenges beyond, or together with, economic growth: promote human development and reduce threats to the environment • Human development i.e. raising the level of well-being of a growing number of people: • Improve health conditions • Fight hunger, poverty, social exclusion, illiteracy • Ensure peace and stability

3. The global challenges of the 21st Century (2) • Threats to the environment: • Remediate to the scarcity of renewable and non-renewable resources: • Water stress • Food production stress • Energy stress People are no longer scarce, but nature is

4. The global challenges of the 21st Century (3) • Threats to the environment (cont.): • Control growing urbanization • Fight land degradation • Fight environmental pollution: greenhouse gases, Pops, EDCs in water, air, soil

5. The global challenges of the 21st Century (4) A few figures: • Poverty: in the last 2 decades, the world output grew by more than 20%, but the number of poor people has risen also by more than 20%. The poorest fifth of humanity survives on less than 1$ a day • Hunger: 790 million people are living in hunger • Social exclusion: at global level, income from work rose only by 2%, as opposed to a 59% increase in income from capital

6. The global challenges of the 21st Century (5) A few figures (cont.): • Health: • Taking care of elderly people: over the past 50 years, the life expectancy has risen more than in the last 4,000 years, leading to new geriatric issues • Combating infectious diseases: • A young child dies every three seconds, essentially from infectious diseases

7. The global challenges of the 21st Century (6) A few figures (cont.): • AIDS: 33.6 million people living with AIDS, 3 million dead in 2000 • Resurrection of TB, about 1.5 million people die each year from TB. Nearly 2 billion people live with latent TB infection • Measles lead to some 900 000 fatalities per year, malaria kills 3,000 people every day

8. The global challenges of the 21st Century (7) A few figures (cont.): • Water Stress: only 2.5% of world water can support human life. Water use during 20th Century grew at more than the rate of population increase. In 2025, 2/3 of world population could be under water stress conditions; stress starts when more than 10% of renewable fresh water resources are used; already now 460 million people are above the 40%

9. The global challenges of the 21st Century (8) A few figures (cont.): • Land Degradation and Food Production Stress: 1.9 Billion hectares of land worldwide (size of US + Canada) are currently affected by degradation, threatening the food security of more than 900 million people in 100 countries

10. The global challenges of the 21st Century (9) A few figures (cont.): • Energy Stress: still 2 billion people have no access to modern energy services and the world population is expected to double in the next century. One challenge is to make energy available to the poor at prices that they can cope with, another challenge is to provide CLEAN energy everywhere. The objectives of the Kyoto Protocol cover only the tip of the iceberg

11. The global challenges of the 21st Century (10) • Should the description of these challenges lead to a pessimistic outlook? No! • The future lies in a combination of good governance at all levels (local communities, regions, nations, continents, world) and of appropriate use of technologies « May the rains come on time! May there be a bountiful harvest! May the world be contented! May the rulers be righteous! » Ancient Pali verse

12. The global challenges of the 21st Century (11) • Technologies have become a major instrument of economic and social policy and could become the major force of social change in the next 10 years • A stronger link between the politicians, the representatives and the S&T community is urgently required while paradoxically it is the time when the gap in the understanding of S&T by decision-makers and the civil society is at its lowest level since decades;

13. The global challenges of the 21st Century (12) • Technologies have already supported global development in many areas: growing economic wealth, lessened work, life expectancy, extension of the available energy resource base, increase in agricultural productivity • Technologies have extended so far the carrying capacity of our Planet. Over the next two generations, we will need technologies that can more than double the capacity of humankind to perform activities in ways that do not further degrade the life support systems of our planet

14. The role of technologies (1) What is the technological offer capable of meeting such challenge? An combination of: • further advancements in: • Information and Communications technologies • Biotechnologies • Energy technologies • Materials and • the emergence of Nanotechnologies

15. The role of technologies (2) Information and Communications technologies Some challenges: • Improved accessibility:10$ PC, Internet access in own language, widespread low-cost access lines • e-Commerce for all, instrument of economic and social development • e-Health: the virtual medical city • e-Education: virtual Higher Education, lifelong learning • e-Government: a new life for democracy?

16. The role of technologies (3) Information and Communications technologies (cont.) Some dangers: • The digital divide: poor/rich, young/old • The loss of cultural diversity • The development of cyber-crime • The loss of privacy • The domination of economic oligopoles

17. The role of technologies (4) Biotechnologies: • Biotechnology is currently a major driving force in technological innovation. Its impact in the socio-economic world is significant and it offers the promises, if adequately managed, to lead to a win-win scenario, combining economic and social benefits and reducing the North-South divide.

18. The role of technologies (5) Biotechnologies (cont.): • It is a big source of money: • global biotechnology product sales in 2003: 23 billion $, forecasted 85 billion $ in 2010 • US alone: 16 billion $ divided in: • Human therapeutics/drugs: 74.0% • Human diagnostics: 13.5% • Agriculture: 7.0% • Specialties (chemicals, etc.): 3.5% • Non-medical diagnostics: 2.0% Source: European Chemical News January 20th, 2003

19. The role of technologies (6) Biotechnologies (cont.): • It is also a big source of hope: • Immense impact on health • Enhancement of food production • Promising impact for the protection of the environment: clean production of chemicals, detection of pollutants, bioremediation

20. The role of technologies (7) Biotechnologies (cont.): • The health preoccupation is reflected by the large share of the market. Human diagnostics is an area of particular growth. Agricultural products, GMO’s in particular, constitute the most publicized trade issue, while in fact they represent less than 10% of the total market.

21. The role of technologies (8) Biotechnologies in the health sector Some challenges: • Justified recourse to stem cells • Exploitation of protein engineering, genomics, combinatorial chemistry • Generalized access to human diagnostics • Development of animals as production factories for human pharmaceuticals

22. The role of technologies (9) Biotechnologies in the agricultural sector Some challenges: • Produce higher yields: raise biological productivity without associated ecological harm • Increase resistance to drought, to sea-water intrusion These technologies can benefit enormously from the gene revolution

23. The role of technologies (10) « The 20th Century began with the rediscovery of Mendel’s laws of inheritance. It ended with the moving of specific genes across sexual barriers with the help of molecular mapping and recombinant DNA technology » M.S.Swaminathan

24. The role of technologies (11) Biotechnologies in the environmental field Some challenges: • Develop biological waste management and land remediation • Introduce « smart » water treatment • Produce safer fertilizers

25. The role of technologies (12) Biotechnologies Some dangers: • Remaining unclear about ethical issues such as human cloning or sex determination (impact in India or China!) Bioethics • Failing to exercise global governance on the issue of gene technology in agriculture and environmental protection Biosafety • Facilitate bio-terrorism Biosecurity

26. The role of technologies (13) Energy technologies Some challenges: • Widen the clean use of hydrocarbons: Fuel Cells (local co-generation, transportation, µ batteries) • Consider the clean use of coal: coal gasification, liquefaction together with methods for CO² sequestration • Develop hydrogen as an energy vector

27. The role of technologies (14) Energy technologies (cont.) Some challenges: • Improve energy storage, all the way from the smallest (micro batteries) to the largest size (GWh storage rings) • Review energy distribution methods, notably for developing countries • Review the architecture of electricity networks in terms of stability (contribution of « wild » sources) and vulnerability.

28. The role of technologies (13) Energy technologies Some dangers: • Antagonizing growth and environmental protection. • In particular, being too emotional about the future of nuclear energy and the environmental impact of geothermal and of big hydro

29. The role of technologies (14) Materials « the hidden side of technological spearheading » Some challenges: • The development of nanomaterials • The realization of very large structural elements • The development of intelligent materials: self healing, failure warning, shape memory • The increase in service life • The exploitation of surface functionality

30. The role of technologies (15) Nanotechnologies. The emerging revolution Some challenges: • Applications in new fabrication techniques, nano-scale production processes • Use in health diagnostics • New applications in ICT’s, quantum computing • Use in µ energy storage • Development of self organizing micro-robots

31. The role of technologies (16) Nanotechnologies Some dangers: • Ignoring health safety aspects • Favoring nano-tech weapons • Leading to evolution beyond control

32. In conclusion (1) • Technologies benefit from the tremendous vitality of upstream science that opens new horizons for meeting the formidable global challenges of the 21st Century • The development of technologies is not without danger but self restraint and good political governance should limit their possible negative impact

33. In conclusion (2) • Any judgment about the role of technology should be made in view of global challenges and not solely on the basis of local politics • There is now a unique opportunity to reconcile technology and people’s basic aspirations « Technology is increasingly seen as a primary opportunity for breaking the « Gordian knot » between increased economic activity and decreased environmental quality » Tom Jones, OECD Environment Directorate