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The potential of solar energy for Lebanon

The potential of solar energy for Lebanon . Chambre de Commerce et d'Industrie de Paris – 5/8 June 2012 - Beirut. The fundamentals: 4 ways to use the solar. Solar Photovoltaic (PV). Concentrating solar power (CSP). Passive solar building design. Solar thermal energy.

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The potential of solar energy for Lebanon

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  1. The potential of solar energy for Lebanon Chambre de Commerce et d'Industrie de Paris – 5/8 June 2012 - Beirut

  2. The fundamentals: 4 ways to use the solar Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Concentrating solar power (CSP) Passive solar building design Solar thermal energy Generates electricity through the direct conversion of sunlight Uses concentrated solar radiation as a high temperature energy source to produce electrical power Uses the sun's daily and annual cycles to maintain building thermal comfort Uses the thermal energy directly from the sun to heat domestic water Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  3. An integrated approach of Solar Energy Development for buildings Increase efficiency Reduce costs Ph. Costerg, June 2012 Source: IEA

  4. Capturing solar market growth Estimated worldwide solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity Estimated solar market segments breakdown (Average 2011-2021) GW 5% of the world electric production in 2030 1,200 Off grid 3% 1,000 900 GW Residential rooftops 31% 20 to 25% of annual growth until 2020 Solar farms 33% 800 600 400 GW 400 200 Commercial rooftops 33% 2010 2020 2030 Total high scenario Total base scenario Grid parity speeding up market growth source : Total Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  5. PV market Growth: Total’s Scenario by 2020 Cumulative Installed Capacity Growth - GWp • 15% Compound Annual Growth Rate by 2020 • Cumulative capacity expected in 2020: • 450GWp • The equivalent of a production of 560TWh of electricity Base scenario (15% CAGR) Bloomberg NEF Conservative scenario Deutsche Bank – Sep 2011 Upside scenario (18% CAGR) Solarbuzz Average scenario EPIA Policy Driven UBS – Oct 2011 Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific Americas Sources: Total Scenario Oct 2011 Europe 5 Global PV capacity has been increasing at an average annual capacity growth rate of more than 40% since 2000 and should at least grow by 15%/year on average by 2020 5

  6. Photovoltaic today in the World Capacity Additions in Europe (GW) PV MarketswithCapacity Additions > 1GW PV MarketswithCapacity Additions > 1GW Capacity Additions in Europe (GW) Sources: EPIA, Enerdata, WEO 2011, EER, NREAP, REN 21, EGP Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  7. Top 15 cell producers in 2011 (MW) ATEE, Ph. Costerg, 13 June 2012 Source: PHOTON Magazine

  8. The fundamentals of the Photovoltaic sector : diversity of applications Grid connection Private houses Farms, industrial, service sector buildings Power plants Other examples of ground mounted systems Off-grid activities Remote sites and rural electrification Telecom and Oil & gas Solar water pumping Standalone devices PV systems are highly modular, i.e. modules can be linked together to provide power ranging from a few watts to tens of megawatts (MW) Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  9. Continuous research and innovation Solar Impulse: The project eventually hopes to succeed in the first circling of the earth with a piloted fixed-wing aircraft using only solar power. A single-seater, capable of taking off under its own power, and intended to remain airborne up to 36 hours. It first flew an entire diurnal solar cycle, including nearly 9 hours of night flying, in a 26-hour flight on 7–8 July 2010. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/history/pastprojects/Erast/helios.html PlanetSolar: an entirely solar powered boat that was launched on 31 March 2010. The plan is to set a round-the-world record, promoting the use of sustainable energy. Two records: fastest crossing of the Atlantic Ocean by solar boat and longest distance ever covered by a solar electric vehicle. Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  10. Total presence in the Solar PV value chain Organic PV chain Crystalline silicon chain Panels Si solar Wafers Cells Modules Systems 50% 23.8% 29% 66.6% Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  11. Focus on SunPower: World-leading solar conversion efficiency 22% 20% 20% 18% 19% 16% Module Efficiency 16% 14% 14% Standard Efficiency (16% cell) Sanyo HIT (20% cell) SunPower Gen C (22.2% cell) SunPower Gen E (23.2% cell) Selective Emitter (19% cell) Ph. Costerg, June 2012

  12. Middle East & Northern Africa: Huge solar energy development potential TURKEY 600MW target of Solar PV by 2013 Solar plan: 2GW by 2020 MOROCCO U.A.E Abu Dhabi: 2.3GW (7%) of R.E by 2020 Dubaï: ~0.2GW (1%) of R.E by 2020 JORDAN ALGERIA 600MW solar power by 2020 EGYPT Solar plan: 2.2GW by 2020 target 20% of R.E by 2020 (7GW) SAUDI ARABIA target 10% of R.E by 2020 - 5GW of Solar • Several Governments of the region have already committed to development objectives of Renewable Electricity - including Solar targets 12

  13. Lebanon maps Geographicmap Solar radiation map Population densitymap 2000 Population: 4.1M ha (July 2011 est., ) Source: Focus Solar Source: Lebanon-hotels.com Source: Columbia University, New York

  14. Lebanon: Electric situation Electric situation EDL electricity production 2009 94% production from thermal (diesel oil) Source: Enerdata 2011 + 7%/y ~500MW/y Electricity consumption (TWh) Installed capacity (GW) Source: Global Energy Network Institute Source: NEEAP 2011-2015 • EDL national utility controls over 90% of the Lebanese electricity sector • 100% of fossil resources imported • Strong electricity deficit , 40% of system losses •  Important share of diesel generation for back-up • National plan to reach 4GW in 2014 •  700MW from CCGT(multi fuel hybrid), 525MW from RE, 280MW from small generators, others (imports, rehabilitation) • Low subsidized EDL tariffs but additional high back up costs (3 to 6 times more EDL tariffs) (1) EDL (2) Ministry of Energy and Water, Jan 2012 (3) E-cube, 2011

  15. Lebanon RE policy RE additional capacities by 2015 525MW of RE capacity to be added by 2015 Source: NEEAP 2011-2015 • July 2010, Lebanese Centre for Energy Conservation (LCEC) published National Policy for Energy Efficiency & RE •  RE target of 12% of primary energy supply by 2020 • Nov. 2011, Lebanese government adopted National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), 2011-2015 strategy for energy efficiency & RE: • Target 800MW of RE by 2015 • Incl. 100MW of solar (PV/CSP) + 100MW of off-grid PV/wind • No PV FIT, but net metering to be implemented * * Approved by EDL in July 2011 PV projects • Total PV installed capacity 0.6 MWp in 2011 • Main PV projects: 40kWp off-grid CEDRO* project (modules Suntech ) for schools in North Lebanese , Bekaa Valley • NEEAP targets 100MWp of PV by 2015 • First PV pilot farm in discussion with Chinese embassy in Lebanon * “Country energy efficiency and RE demonstration project"(CEDRO), managed by UNDP with Ministry of Energy and Water, of Finance and Council for Development& Reconstruction, created in Oct.07 (duration 5 years, budget $9.73M)

  16. Lebanon PV market potential PV industrial (ground/rooftop) – LCOE@6% • Large industrials are using diesel generators as back up systems • As high diesel price at ~0.9$/l, PV can be used to save diesel fuel cost • PV (ground or rooftop) already competitive for large industrials Large industrials PV small industrials/commercial rooftop – LCOE@6% • Small industrials/commercials are buying back-up electricity from private generators at very high cost (6 times EDL commercial tariff) •  PV already competitive on small industrials/commercial rooftops Small industrials/ commercials PV residential rooftop – LCOE@6% • Residential are buying back-up electricity from private generators at very high cost (3 times EDL residential tariff) •  PV competitive on residential rooftop starting 2013-2014 Residential

  17. A solar PV roadmap : sustainable, secure and affordable • Key questions : • What is the most appropriate policy framework to develop solar PV? • How should investment incentives be functioning? • How to modernize energy infrastructure in order to integrate solar (and wind) power? • Who pays for the cost of infrastructure? • Benefits of Solar PV • Creating local employment in installation, operation and maintenance • Decreasing dependence on fossil fuels • Developing new and innovative technologies • Providing revenue 17

  18. Preconditions for the development of Solar PV in Lebanon • A defined energy vision and investment planning for Solar energy • Financial support guaranteed over a predefined period of time, without retroactivity • Removal of barriers through streamlined administrative procedures and efficient grid connection processes • Guaranteed grid access and transmission • Information and awareness of the population/investors about the benefits related to PV • Education and certification of installers • Grid infrastructure development 18

  19. Segment-specific approaches • In the residential, commercial and industrial segments • Self-consumption: allow final consumers to use the solar electricity generated by their PV systems to offset their consumption before exporting the excess power to the grid • Net metering: allow the compensation to be calculated on a longer period of time (in general one year), in order to reduce the overall cost of support schemes • In the utility-scale segment • Call for tender mechanisms: these calls should be multi-annual in nature, guarantee sufficient volume and transparent, rapid and simple bidding process to ensure they enable market growth • Obligation on utilities for increasing their share of renewables / PV in their resource portfolios, combined with power purchase agreements that ensure fixed prices 19

  20. Back up

  21. Sun Shadeproject Cité de la Voile Éric Tabarly –Lorient - France 19 kWc 252 6

  22. Curtain Wall Ecole Primaire - Morschwiller – France 56 20.8 kWc 9

  23. BIPV Products line Main points on BIPV : summary • PV is easily associated to building • Local production, local consumption • Double functions • PV can be economical on building • Costs of substitution • Early grid parity • New financing modes (energy generation) • Dedicated product development • Tenesol : BIPV system • Sunpower : high power density modules, full black esthetics • Collaboration with building industry (architect, promotor, construction) TOTAL for BIPV sustainable partnership

  24. Innovation : Reach the markets

  25. Market growth has accelerated cost reductions and closed the gap with grid parity Module Price -70% since Sep 2008 Cost Of Solar Electricity Cost of Solar PV electricty – rooftop PV System in Middle East (@6%) Over the past years, the photovoltaic (PV) market has experienced unprecedented growth which has fostered price reduction and accelerated the timing towards competitiveness 25 25

  26. Back Up: Middle East & Africa Solar PV market growth Annual Solar PV Systems installations Geographical Split – Cumulative 2020 - GWp 26

  27. Lebanon Electric situation Installed capacity (GW) Electricity consumption (TWh) Source: PV syst + 7%/y Electricity production 2009 ~500MW/y Source: NEEAP 2011-2015 Source: Enerdata 2011 PV projects Source: Global Energy Network Institute • EDL (Electricité du Liban) national utility, controls over 90% of the Lebanese electricity sector – legal law for privatization and liberalization existing but not applicable • 100% of fossil resources imported develop gas import from Egypt, Syria, Turkey + LNG • 94% production from thermal, 6% from hydro • All plants at full capacity as supply doesn’t cover demand • Strong electricity deficit , 40% of system losses •  Important share of diesel generation for back-up •  Heavy deficit of EDL: -1.5B$ loss/y • National plan to reach 4GW in 2014 , 5GW post 2015 • Total invt cost of 4.87B$ for 4GW through partnership public/private – 1.55B$ from gvt, 2.32B$ from private sector & 1B$ from international organizations •  700MW from CCGT(multi fuel hybrid), •  525MW from RE •  280MW from small generators •  Others: imports (150MW), rehabilitation (245MW) • Low EDL tariffs as subsidized but additional high back up costs (3 to 6 times more EDL tariffs) • Electrification rate 99%, but high electricity deficit (1) (4) Ministry of Energy and Water, Jan 2012 (2) EDL (3) E-cube, 2011

  28. Lebanon PV and gridparity RE policy • July 2010, Lebanese Centre for Energy Conservation (LCEC) published National Policy for Energy Efficiency & RE •  RE target of 12% of primary energy supply by 2020 • Nov. 2011, Lebanese government adopted National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), 2011-2015 strategy for energy efficiency & RE: • Add 525 MW of RE by 2015 to reach 800MW in 2015 • Incl. 100MW of solar (PV/CSP) + 100MW of off-grid PV/wind (invt 250-500M$) • So far no FIT , but net metering to be implemented (approved by EDL in July 2011) • 0% customs on RE incl. PV systems PV farms – LCOE@6% Industrial (ground/rooftop) – LCOE@6% Residential rooftops– LCOE@6% Commercial rooftops– LCOE@6% RE additional capacities by 2015 PV total installed capacity (MWp) PV projects • Total PV installed capacity 0.6MWp in 2011 • Main PV projects: off grid CEDRO* project (modules Suntech) for schools in North Lebanese , Bekaa Valley Total ouput ~40kWp • LCEC conducted a survey to identify ~40 PV dealers/installers • NEEAP targets 100MWp of PV by 2015 (off-grid+on-grid) • First PV pilot farm currently in discussion with Chinese embassy in Lebanon Source: LCED, NEEAP 2011-2015 Source: NEEAP 2011-2015 * “Country energy efficiency and RE demonstration project"(CEDRO), managed by UNDP with Ministry of Energy and Water, of Finance and Council for Development& Reconstruction, created in Oct.07 (duration 5 years, budget $9.73M)

  29. Thank you Ph. Costerg, June 2012

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