CMGPD-LN Substantive Lecture

1. CMGPD-LNSubstantive Lecture Day 1 Course Organization Self-introductions Debates and Controversies, Topics

2. Course OrganizationSubstantive Lecture • Brief introduction to specific topics • Relevant results from analysis of CMGPD-LN • Will assume that you have done required reading before lecture • Outstanding issues and debates • Possible applications of the CMGPD-LN • Questions and discussion welcome

3. Course OrganizationSubstantive Lecture - Topics • Longitudinal data analysis • Population composition • Household and family • Social mobility • Marriage and reproduction • Health and mortality • Early-life conditions • Family contextual influences • Kin groups • Village context • Migration

4. Course OrganizationMethodological Lecture • Using the CMGPD-LN for specific analyses • Linked to substantive lectures • Related variables • Origins • Limitations • Operations in STATA • Interpretation • Questions and discussion welcome

5. Course OrganizationDiscussion Section • Examples of operations from the methodological lecture • Previous day’s practice exercise • Progress on analysis for final report • Remaining questions from morning’s lectures

6. Course OrganizationExercises • Daily • Introduce variables • Practice with key operations • Discuss the following day in section • Open-ended to encourage diversity in approaches, and discussion

7. Course OrganizationFinal Report • To be presented orally on the 8/7 • Presentation may be in Chinese • Handouts or Powerpoint • Present initial ideas for topic on 7/26 • Collaboration is welcome • Goal: develop a topic to pursue independently after the end of class • Demonstrate • Familiarity with the data • Suitability of data for the topic at hand • Ability to carry out relevant operations in STATA • Relevance to an interesting research topic or question

8. Course organizationFormat • Questions and discussion are welcome • Chinese and English are both fine • Whenever possible, I will use Chinese • Available for appointments 3pm-5pm • Please turn off cell phones • During class, please use your laptops only for following lecture, or taking notes

9. Debates and ControversiesEconomy and population (Malthus) • Deliberate fertility limitation • Did it exist? • Did it respond to economic conditions? • Did community or family context modulate the response? • Implications for Malthusian accounts • 人类的四分之一 • Involuntary fertility responses • Mortality responses • 压力下的生活 • Outstanding question: do individual-level responses observed so far aggregate up to a meaningful population-level response?

10. Debates and ControversiesFamily and household • Kin networks and individual outcomes • Where is the boundary? • Household? More distant kin? • What is the process? • Collective decision-making? • Resource allocation? • Role assignment? • Kin networks as insurance • Protection against various kinds of shocks? • Comparison with the West • Lifeboat/corporate Eastern family versus ‘nuclear hardship’ of the West

11. Debates and ControversiesStratification and Inequality • Was China ‘open’ or ‘closed’? • Turnover in the composition of elites, or rigidity? • Ho (1962) versus Hymes (1984) • What role did kin other than parents play? • Do weak parent-child correlations in Ho (1962), Lee and Campbell (1997) etc. understate rigidity? • Campbell and Lee (2003, 2008) • Kin groups as units of stratification • Long-term persistence in the status of kin groups?

12. Topics • Differentials in demographic behavior • Community, household context, socioeconomic status • Influence of conditions in early- and mid-life on outcomes later in life • Health and mortality • Socioeconomic attainment • Strong interest in aging literature • Intergenerational associations in demographic behavior • Heritability of reproduction, mortality? • Migration • Micro-/Macro-level interactions • How do micro-level differences in behavior aggregate up to changes in population composition?

13. Genealogy and Inequality:Ancestry and Kinship in Demography and Stratification • How did kin groups contribute to inequality by shaping individual economic, social, and demographic outcomes in the past? • Kin groups and inequality over the long term • Inequality, demography, and population change Overall goal: use the Chinese experience to critique models of stratification based on Western experience, and develop new ones more relevant for the rest of the world.

14. Genealogy and InequalityIndividual Outcomes • Studies of determinants of economic, social, and demographic outcomes focus on the macro or the micro • Macro: Country, region, social class, race, ethnicity, gender • Micro: Parental and individual characteristics • Recently, some consideration of neighborhood or community • Neglect intermediate layers such as kin groups

15. Genealogy and InequalityIndividual Outcomes • This approach reflects the influence of Western traditions • Focus on broad categories originally of interest in the Western context such as race, gender, ethnicity, social class • Emphasis on the role of the nuclear family • For China, and the rest of the world, other units of organization are relevant • Opportunity to use the Chinese case to develop new models for study of global phenomenon

16. Genealogy and InequalityIndividual Outcomes Macro-level contextEthnicity/race/genderContinent/country/region Individual outcomes Education Occupation/Income Marriage and Reproduction Health and Mortality Meso-level contextCommunity/neighborhoodKin group Micro-level contextParental characteristicsIndividual characteristics

17. Community Descent Group Descent Group HouseholdGroup HouseholdGroup HouseholdGroup HouseholdGroup HouseholdGroup Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household Household

18. Genealogy and InequalityIndividual Outcomes • Goals • Measure the influence of characteristics of near and distant kin on individual demographic, social, and economic outcomes • Assess the relative importance of households, villages and descent groups in shaping outcomes • Methods • Quantitative methods • 18th and 19th century household register data (CMGPD-LN)

19. Genealogy and InequalityKin groups over the long term • Are some kin groups persistently more successful over the very long term? • Lineages, descent groups, etc. • Western models of inter-generational stratification focus on parents and children • Markovian: grandparents and other kin don’t have independent effects • Precludes possibility of multi-generation persistence of kin group status • No role for lineages, descent groups, etc.

20. Genealogy and InequalityKin groups over the long term

21. Genealogy and InequalityKin groups over the long term • Goals • Assess whether the relative status of kin groups persists over long periods of time • Net of parent-child transmission processes • Methods • Quantitative methods • 18th and 19th century household register data (CMGPD-LN) • 20th century retrospective survey data • Correlate statuses of lineages in 18th and 19th centuries with their status in the 19th century

22. Inequality, demography, and population change • Does the intergenerational transmission of status interact with demographic differentials to change population composition over the long term? • In other words, do the descendants of a selective subset of the population account for a disproportionate share of the population in later generations? • A possible mechanism for social and economic change

23. Inequality, demography, and population change • If… • High-status males reproduce more • Traits, behaviors, attitudes conducive to attainment are transmitted from parent to child • Then… • Intergenerational transmission of traits, combined with fertility differentials, may have been a mechanism for population change • Whether transmission is by genes or environment doesn’t matter

24. Inequality, demography, and population change • Gregory Clark (2007) included evidence from a multi-generational approach • Indirect evidence from changes in the frequency of rare surnames • Reproductive success of founders measured generations later • Net of whatever processes are neglected in simulation/projection studies

25. Inequality, demography, and population change • Clark (2007) suggested that differentials in reproduction and transmission of traits diffused skills and attitudes compatible with a market economy. • Suggested that such processes were unique to England, and helped account for the Industrial Revolution • We argue that such processes were also evident in preindustrial China

26. Inequality, demography, and population change • Inequality • Differences in outcomes between kin groups in random-effects models • Demography • Male reproductive success over the long-term, by SES • Assumption: micro-level results on male reproductive success ‘scale up’

27. Inequality, demography, and population change • Differentials in demographic behavior are well-documented • Marriage, fertility, mortality • Historical and contemporary • Europe, North America, Asia • Implications for population composition depend on... • Net effects of demographic differentials • Processes of intergenerational transmission • Patterns of differentials and processes of transmission need to be considered jointly

28. Inequality, demography, and population change • Early studies inferred ‘dysgenic’ trends in population from fertility differentials • Fertility is just part of the equation • Other pieces of the process… • Marriage, Mortality • Status transmission • Micro-level feedbacks, interactions, correlations between demographic behaviors and status transmission

29. Inequality, demography, and population change • Mostly use some form of simulation/projection • Preston and Campbell (1993) • Robert Mare and collaborators • David Lam • Extrapolate from fertility/mortality and integenerational transmission to population change • Strong assumptions about independence of demographic outcomes • Markovian • Based on two-generation parent-child data • No ‘memory’ • Ignore larger units of organization community or lineage that may have generated correlations