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Changes in Sight: Limits of Growth, Climate Change and Extreme Weather Phenomena. Thomas Kadyk Engineering Scientist, Postdoc @ SFU Group of Michael Eikerling. Winemaking. Growing of the Yeast. 0 min. 1 min. 2 min. Growing of the Yeast. Sugar Content. sugar conten t.
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Changes in Sight: Limits of Growth, Climate Change and Extreme Weather Phenomena Thomas Kadyk Engineering Scientist, Postdoc @ SFU Group of Michael Eikerling
Winemaking Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Growing of the Yeast 0 min 1 min 2 min Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Growing of the Yeast Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Sugar Content sugar content Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Alcohol Poisoning the Yeast Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Carbon Dioxide Residence Time Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Projections into the Future Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Uncertainties • Measured value x = 1 • Modelling y = 10x = 10 z = y3 = 1000 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Uncertainties • Measured value x = 1 ± 0.1 = 0.9 … 1 … 1.1 • Modelling y = 10x = 7.9 … 10 … 12.6 z = y3 = 501 … 1000 … 1995 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Temperature, Sea Level and Snow Cover Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Past Sea Level vs. Temperature • Long-term effect Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Sea Level Risks – U.S. East Coast globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Sea Level Risks – Southeast Asia globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Sea Level Risks – Middle East globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Sea Level Risks – North Sea globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Arctic Sea Ice 1979 2007 NASA Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Arctic Sea Ice Sorteberg, Bjeknes Centre for Climate Research and University Center at Svalbard, Norway. Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Albedo • Positive feedback loop • Arctic is warming twice as much as global average % of radiation reflected Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere Hugo Ahlenius (2007), UNEP/GRID-Arendal Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Carbon Content in billion tonnes ≈50% of global belowground organic carbon pool Schuur et al., UNEP, CDIAC.Tarnocai (2009) Global Biogeochem Cycles 23, GB2023 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Increase in Extremes • changes in extremes can be linked to changes in mean, variability and/or shape of probability distributions • changing climate leads to changes in • frequency • intensity • spatial extent • duration • timing of extreme weather and climate events Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Droughts Annual Vol. Soil Moisture trend 1950-2000 [%/y] Sheffield and Wood (2008) J Climate 21, 432 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Droughts • Positive feedback loops • less moisture in soil → less heat loss from evaporation + fewer clouds • vegetation dries out → more fires → release of CO2 • Globally, since the 1970s, droughts are getting longer and more widespread • Heatwaves have become slightly hotter and more frequency • Combination of droughts and heatwaves especially dangerous • Drought projections not very accurate because they rely on uncertain precipitation projections Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Hard to Assess and Predict • e.g. • El Niño, monsoons, tropical and extratropicalcyclons • Rain and precipitation, Flooding, Winds • Extreme events are rare • few data available • Confidence in observed changes in extremes depends on quality, quantity and availability of analysis of data • Low confidence in observed changes neither implies nor excludes the possibility of changes! Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Summary and Conclusions • Nonlinear growth – hard to imagine • Climate is very complex with dangerous positive feedback loops • Complexity and nonlinearities lead to high uncertainty • Uncertainty neither good nor bad • Action chosen according to what is at risk (= a lot) • Can we afford to be optimistic? Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
Literature • IPCC (2007) 4th Assessment Report • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme evens and disasters to advance climate change adaption (SREX) • IPCC (2012) Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation (SREEN) • PIRC (2012) Climate Factsheets, www.pirc.info, climatesafety.org • PIRC (2008) Climate Safety, www.pirc.info, climatesafety.org • WWF (2012) Living Planet Report 2012 • http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com • http://climate.nasa.gov/ • http://www.skepticalscience.com/ free online courses: • http://forecast.uchicago.edu/lectures.html • https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geosc10/
