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Evaluation of QPF during the HMT-West Winter Exercise: A DTC/HMT Collaboration with USWRP

Evaluation of QPF during the HMT-West Winter Exercise: A DTC/HMT Collaboration with USWRP.

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Evaluation of QPF during the HMT-West Winter Exercise: A DTC/HMT Collaboration with USWRP

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  1. Evaluation of QPF during the HMT-West Winter Exercise: A DTC/HMT Collaboration with USWRP Edward Tollerud1, Tara Jensen2, John Halley Gotway2, Huiling Yuan1,3, Wally Clark4, Ellen Sukovich4, Paul Oldenburg2, Randy Bullock2, Gary Wick4(also Tressa Fowler, Barb Brown, Matt Pocernich, Paul Schultz, Chris Harrop, IsidoraJankov) 1 ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 3 CIRES, Boulder, CO 4 ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO Wally Clark

  2. USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 HMT-DTC/USWRP Collaboration Collaborating Agencies and Motivations GSD: High-resolution ensemble NWP and verification PSD, USWRP: Atmospheric Rivers and QPF; Severe events NCAR/RAL: MET-based real-time and object–based verification; HWT interactions RFCs, WFOs, CA DWR: Operational reservoir management Goals and Objectives • Implementation and demonstration of new verification capabilities for high-resolution NWP • Develop DTC capabilities for ensemble model probabilistic prediction and verification • Data Impact Studies • Impact studies of model physics and parameterizations relevant to HMT research

  3. Duality of Purpose: A Tale of Two Communities • Research for the USWRP, HMT, and etc. • Very strong initial focus on QPF and extreme precipitation • Important observational component • What physical mechanisms lead to damaging rainfall? • What verification tools can provide valuable diagnostic information? • (eg. MODE vis a vis atmospheric rivers) • 2) Operational Forecast Guidance for RFCs, CDWR, NWS, and etc. • Baseline comparison with previous products (i.e, GFS forecasts) • Establish usefulness of high-resolution WRF ensemble forecasts • What is value of ensemble mean? • What are limits to forecast lead times for QPF?

  4. HMT Winter Exercise – Online • Real-time Verification • MODE and standard scores • Selection of Vxdata: gages, Stage IV, daily, 6h • Choice of format: valid time, initialization time, monthly summary, time series, bar plots, boxplots, variable thresholds, regional selections

  5. Real-time QPF verification for HMT-West USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 • Initialized 12 UTC 1/17/2010, Verif. Stage IV, 0.1 in. threshold • Good performance for ensemble mean (black ) and GFS (brown) • Better performance overall for heavy rainfall periods • http://verif.rap.ucar.edu/eval/hmt/2010/graphics/

  6. 18 January 2010 19 January 2010 Wind turning: diurnal forcing or pure happenstance??

  7. USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 Real-time QPF verification for HMT-West • Constant Valid Time: 1200 UTC 01/20/2010 • Spatial Frequency Bias, .01 inch threshold • Full domain, .01 threshold • Verified with 6h Stage IV • Not large change with lead time except longest (4-5 day) • Anomalously Large bias for ensemble mean

  8. USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 Real-time QPF verification for HMT-West • January Summary, ETS • 24h forecast, full domain • Verified at 24h gage sites • Segregated by threshold • Dramatic performance hit at higher thresholds • No real ensemble member advantages in statistics but large intger-quartile range

  9. USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 Real-time QPF verification for HMT-West • January Summary, FAR • 24h forecast, full domain • Verified at gage sites • Segregated by threshold • Good Performance by Ensemble Mean, poor for GFS

  10. PODY verified at points with 24h gage observations PODY verified at Stage IV grid points (6h)

  11. Ensemble Members, Ensemble Mean, and Observed (Stage IV) Precipitation Fields – 6h forecasts valid at 1200 UTC 20 January 2010

  12. Ensemble Members, Ensemble Mean, and Observed (Stage IV) Precipitation Objects – 6h forecasts valid at 1200 UTC 20 January 2010

  13. Object-based Atmospheric River Verification of Integrated Water Vapor MODE Object Comparison of GFS Forecasts with SSM/I Observation for 25 February, 2004 (Clear Cut Case) 72h 48h 24h SSM/I Area=369 Area=312 Area=306 Area=127 Wally Clark

  14. USWRP/Test-bed Workshop 2010 Proposed Future Activities • Expand and maintain real-time QPF verification demonstration system and analyze results (HMT-West and eventually HMT-East) • Develop and assess prototype MODE-based spatial verification techniques to verify Eastern Pacific Atmospheric River events in near-real-time • Addition of new ensemble-based probabilistic techniques to the MET, including spatial ensemble verification prototypes • Investigate data impacts WRT verification data sets and initialization data

  15. Prioritized Tasks: Details • Adapt HWT-based probability scoring for HMT • Incorporate GFS into skill scores for base-lining • Add SREF to ensemble set • Display Quantitative attributes from MODE • Add wind verification for HMT-West • Build 6h gage verification option • Develop MODE-based ensemble verification utilities • Include Variable duration option for verification periods

  16. Prioritized Tasks: Details (Continued) • Develop Credible Downscaling Applications for model Comparisons • Extend Metviewer to Other Menu-Driven Procedures • HMT-East Prototype Products • Introduce Time-series Verification Options • Publication of Winter Exercise Studies

  17. Collaboration/Leverage with other DTC Tasks and Testbeds • Probability and the HWT • Verification of winds: QNSE • Metviewer and Ensemble Processing for MET • Ensemble Product Development, post-processing with DET • HMT, ARs, and MET/MODE

  18. Presentations and Publications • Meeting/Workshop Presentations: • BACIMO Workshop (Halley Gottway et al.) • WRF User’s Conf. (Tollerud et al.; Halley Gottway et al.) • Testbed Workshop (Tollerud et al.; Clark et al.) • HMT West Tutorial (Jensen and Tollerud) • Verification Colloquium (Tollerud et al.) • Presentations planned for Future • Weather Analysis and Forecasting; Hydrology • QPF3 and GRAPES

  19. Formal Publication Plans • Diagnostic Results from a Real-time QPF Verification System for the HMT Winter Exercise • Assessing the Performance of a High-resolution WRF ensemble Forecast System Relative to GFS Forecasts • Object-based Verification for Historical Pacific Atmospheric Rivers • Techniques for Spatial Verification using IWV and moisture Flux Objects • QPF Verification Uncertainty and Other Impacts of Precipitation Dataset Choice

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