Syria and US Foreign Policy

1. Syria and US Foreign Policy Idean Salehyan Associate Professor of Political Science University of North Texas

2. Outline • Background • Understanding the Syrian war • US responses and policy options

3. Syria Background • Demography: • 22.5 Million people • Ethnicity: 90% Arab, 9% Kurdish • Religion: 74% Sunni Islam; 16% Alawi & Shia; 10% Christian • History: • Ottoman Empire • WWI, French Mandate • Independence in 1946

4. Syria Background • 1963 Ba’athist coup • Hafez al-Assad rise to power, 1971 • Involvement in Lebanon • Relationship with Hezbollah • Muslim Brotherhood Challenge • 1982 Hama Massacre Hafez al-Assad

6. BashAr Al-Assad • Born September 11, 1965 • Studied medicine in the UK • Groomed to be president after death of brother • Assumes office, 2000 after father’s death • Remains close to Iran, Hezbollah • Shia ‘revival’

9. Arab spring • Peaceful “revolutions” • Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen (partial) • Successful repression • Bahrain • Violent revolution • Libya • Civil war • Syria • Sectarian nature of the conflict

11. Beginnings of Syrian Unrest • 15 March, 2011. Protests in Damascus, Aleppo, and Daraa. • Repression/imprisonment • Promises of some reform • Failure of Arab League and UN peace plans • 25 April, 2011, Siege of Daraa. Hundreds killed • Military desertions. • Armed clashes begin in June.

12. Opposition forces • Free Syrian Army. Military defectors, led by Colonel Riad al-Asaad • Estimates between 10,000-25,000 troops • Not a unified movement • Local defense groups • Al-Nusra Front • Foreign Jihadists • Kurdish Militias • Syrian National CouncilSyrian National Coalition

13. Sectarian conflict • Conflict has taken increasingly sectarian tone • Assad loyalists include Alawites and Christians • Fighting for survival • Opposition forces largely Sunni Arab • Secular/moderate forces • Radical Jihadists • Kurdish militias

17. International Spillover • 1.3 Million refugees • Jordan: 420,000 • Lebanon: 200,000 • Turkey: 300,000 • Iraq: 100,000

20. US response • “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.” • President Obama, August 18, 2011. • “Military intervention at this point could hinder humanitarian operations… embroil the United States in a significant, lengthy and uncertain military commitment… bringing the United States into a broader regional conflict or proxy war.” • -Chuck Hegel, US Sec of Defense. April 13, 2013

21. US RESPONSE • Policy debate over arming the rebels • Strategic ambivalence: “Assad must go, but…” • Humanitarian and non-lethal aid only • Working through US allies in region • No military action • Difficulties of identification • Uncertain outcome

22. Possible scenarios • Scenario 1 (best case) • Assad steps aside, opposition forces agree on a democratic constitution. UNLIKELY

23. Possible scenarios • Scenario 2 • Assad’s forces gain the upper hand, crush the insurgency. UNLIKELY

24. Possible scenarios • Scenario 3 (worst case) • Assad removed from power by force • Fighting between opposition militias, widespread retaliation/cleansing against Alawites • Regional forces drawn in POSSIBLE

25. Possible scenarios • Scenario 4 • Conflict hits a “stalemate” • Negotiated settlement including a UN force, security guarantees, eventual elections NOT ON THE AGENDA BUT SHOULD BE

26. US RESPONSE • Time to start thinking about peace plan. • Negotiations including Assad, opposition forces, regional actors, Russia, US. • Potential terms of a deal • Assad steps aside • Power-sharing constitution between Sunnis, Alawites, and Kurds • UN force provides security guarantees, esp for Alawites • Military reintegration

27. Questions?