Demographic, Social and Economic Trends in Ukraine and their Impact on Educational Enrolment

1. Demographic, Social and Economic Trends in Ukraine and their Impact on Educational Enrolment Institute for Demography and Social Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Ella Libanova, Larysa Lisogor, Pavlo Shevchuk, Oxana Khmelevskaya, Iryna Rodicheva

2. Demographic analysis of School Enrolment Dynamics in Ukraine Project: Demographic Forecast for Projections of School Enrolment Period of study: October, 2009 - February, 2010 Sources of data: Data of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Ministry of Education and Science, Comprehensive Demographic Projection in Ukraine up to 2050

3. The role of demographic projections for development of the long- and medium-term education strategies • Demographic projections for pupil in 0-29 age group provide a reliable estimate of future pupil enrolment in primary education (ISCED 1) and lower secondary education (ISCED 2). It might be used for planning of the number of human and material resources required for the efficient performance of education system • The data on the number and age structure of the population make a basis for estimation of trends in: • enrolment ratio (by levels of education) • revenues and education expenditures(state, local, individual) • “educational loan” system introduction • optimization of educational network (teaching staff, financial resources, state request for specialists) Non-sufficient attention to the problems of demographic potential worsening during previous period might considerably complicate the possibilities to anticipate demographic perspectivesin the sphere of education

4. As comes from the conducted analysis, the main demographic assumptions for prospective educational enrolment are: Key result from our analysis  large loss of demographic potential caused by population decline due to: • Shrinkage of the demographic basis for providing of possible enrolment (influence of sharp reduction of the total number of population, low birth rates) • Age structure of population (low share of 0-29 aged cohorts)as one of the main obstacles for sustainable replenishment of contingent for educational institutions • Possibilities of “birth rates” fluctuations (entrance or exit of “Baby boom” cycle’s representatives) • Pupil’s probabilities for survival to a certain age with educational transition and without educational transition • Age limitation of access to education Significant migration out-flows as a main obstacle for human capital improvement • Regional and area disproportions in enrolment

5. Structure of population in Ukraine by sex, age and education level (Census 2001 data)

6. Demographic trends within the 0-29 age range reflect the fall in the birth rate recorded in Ukraine since 1995. The annual average rates of reduction in the number of births between 1990 and 2001 (Census data) were 5.5% for urban area and 3.8% - for rural area, while crude birth rate annually decreased in 1990s by 5.0%, on the average, in urban area and by 3.0% in rural area. Significant decline in the compulsory school age population was a result of population ageing, low birth rates, widespread standards of small families Main demographic challenges for education in Ukraine

7. The number of people 0-29 aged has been steadily decreasing, and the proportion of young people in the total population varies substantially from one region to the next

8. A tough decade has just ended! 40% fewer children age 7-16 Source: UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision, Medium Variant Forecast)

9. 0-9 10-19 Population projections for 0-9, 10-19, 20-29 age group, 2010-2020 • 20-29

10. Methodology of demographic forecast by educational levels • Combination of cohort-component demographic forecast and multi-status forecast • Forecast of components (levels of birth-rate, death rate, intensity and directions of migrations) based on expert estimations, methods of analogies, mathematical models and different types of extrapolations • Using of matrices of age-specific coefficients (transition probabilities) • Multi-status method is combined by a possibility of transition from one educational group to another

11. As resulted from the studythere is a probability of transition between levels of education complete secondary (10th-11(12th) forms) vocational school Bachelor’s programme Master’s programme no complete secondary (9th form) І-ІІ accreditation leveleducation institution

12. Age of the most intensive transitions between educational levels (according to study result)

13. Hypothesis of Demographic Projections As comes from the study each variant of enrolment education projection (by different types of educational institutions) is based on the relevant scenario of multi-variant demographic forecast in Ukraine.

14. Presented study was based on such assumptions: • Fluctuations of the number of 0-29 age group population (increase or decrease), age structure of population • Necessity to provide educational standards (class size, teacher/pupil ratio, infrastructure development) • Educational reform implementation, shift in enrolment due to transition to 12-years schooling program (enrolment failure in 2012), introduction of External Independent Estimation (EIE) • Decentralization of vocational education, optimization of educational institution’s network

15. Different scenarios of possible enrolment in various types of educational institutions High scenario Increase of enrolment as a result of the increase of 0-9 age group share (primary education), 10-15 age group (secondary education), 16-19 age group (post-secondary and non-tertiary) as a result of birth rates increase with relevant decrease of mortality rates (for 0-19 years), increase of in-flow migration growth Possibilities of transition between educational levels – and as a result – increase of secondary education enrolment, post-secondary and non-tertiary enrolment Efficiency of educational reforms, relevant capacities for widening of the educational network Needs of resource optimization (material, labour, financial) Introduction of innovative methods of schooling

16. Different scenarios of possible enrolment in various types of educational institutions (cont.) Medium scenario Domination of negative or positive tendencies • Existence of demographic depth (6-23 age cohort decline) stipulates the reduction of entrance to primary and secondary education • Regional differences, low territorial mobility limited possibilities for post secondary education enrolment • Educational reforms – has a dual effect on secondary education enrolment : 1) improvement of educational management, 2) limit the possibilities for transition between educational levels (EIE) • Financial constraints complicate the development of educational institutions

17. Different scenarios of possible enrolment in various types of educational institutions (cont.) Low scenario Prevalence of negative tendencies • Decline in the number of 0-29 aged population during pre-crisis period– and as a result – declinein secondary education enrolment, weak incentives for skills development and increase of educational level (post secondary) • Increase of the non-productive exit from one education level to another without skills improvement • Significant regional differentiation • Significant out-flow migration in productive age

18. Primary education enrolment projections

19. As resulted from the study: • Tendencies of primary education enrolment strongly depends from demographic indications (in case of sharp decrease of 0-9 age group the possibilities of future improvement of human capital are limited) • According to results of projections of primary education enrolment the possible fall of its level in 2015 might not be so significant because of birth rates increase during past 4 years (partly as a result of governmental support of maternity). But absence of effective policy making in future might stipulates the further birth rate reduction • Changing of the role of primary education as a sphere of basic skill’s preparation

20. Secondary education enrolment projections

21. Projections of secondary education enrolment indicates about possibilities of its significant drop in 2012 as a result of introduction of 12-years schooling. Absence of graduate’s issue from secondary educational establishment leads to educational gap. It foresees the narrowing of the possibilities for entering of successful graduates to non-tertiary educational establishment (because of double press in 2013).

22. Post-secondary and non-tertiary education enrolment projections

23. Possibilities for post-secondary and non-tertiary education enrolment are limited as a result of weak incentives to education in these establishments, their poor governance and material equipment. At the same tightening of the demands to the results of EIE might stipulate the increase of the number of students. • As for tertiary education it’s necessary to note not only excessive “tertiaryzation” of education but also objective reasons for its development. But possibilities of its widening are quite limited by the capacities of economy.

24. Tertiary education enrolment projections

25. Tertiary education enrolment rates in 1999 and 2007, %

26. Education enrolment: Challenges and Perspectives • Globalization leads to the stage-by-stage “tertiarization” of education in Ukraine Demographic side • Contraction of demographic basis for total enrolment growth, from one hand, and possibilities for its replenishment due to in-flow migration (emigrants), from other hand • Entrance on educational market representatives of “baby boom” age cohorts Educational side • “Basic-skills orientation” of education leads to the limitation of possibilities for life-long learning in Ukraine

27. Education enrolment: Challenges and Perspectives (cont.) • Possibilities of entrant’s redistribution by different educational levels as a result of introduction of secondary school graduate’s testing (in the form of external independent estimations) • Weak career guide Institutional gap • Poor governance of education system and as a result – weak coordination between educational institutions and employers • Abstention of employers, non-governmental sector and other stakeholders in design of curricula and training programs • Low quality of the infrastructure of post-secondary educational establishments leads to the demotivation of school graduates to post-secondary education enrolment • Limited capabilities for development of adult education and as a result - contracted entrance of 25+ age-group population to training and skills development.

28. Conclusions-1 As comes from the conducted study for sustainable development of education system it’s necessary to provide demographic basis for human capital improvement, to take into consideration demographic perspectives. Demographic trends within the 0-29 age range reflect the fall in the birth rate recorded in most European countries. At the same time demographic circles have an serious impact on education sphere. • The demographic basis for future education enrolment depends on tendencies inherited from previous period of time (significant reduction of the number of population aged 0-29 corresponds to a decline within each constituent age group) • As resulted from the studythe reduction of the total number of 6-23 aged cohort of population as a result of demographic “cavity” (entering of fewer number of entrants). • At the same time the strengthening of the positive tendencies in the demographic sphere during last years based on “demographic circles” leads to the not so significant but increase of birth rates. And it determines the slowing of depopulation process, and possibilities for increase of the total number of pupils in the sphere of education. Despite of respectively tertiary, non-tertiary and post-secondary enrolment the number of entrants to educational institutions of different types will be inevitably decrease. Released vacant places might be filled by foreign students or reduced. • It’s not necessarily for 16-18 aged persons to receive a tertiary education (despite of fewer number than number of entrants in 2004-2006) • Educational reform (introduction of EIE) might lead to the changes of educational trends (nearly 10% of entrants to tertiary establishments have no possibility to enter them because of low results) • Potential replacement of general compulsory military service with contract military service may cause reduction in tertiary education’s coverage of males in future decade • Globalization stipulates the possibilities for secondary school graduates to enter foreign colleges and universities, and leads to the possible weakening of entrant’s competition for entering to Ukrainian educational institutions

29. Conclusions-2 + • Acceleration of technology’s development stipulates necessity of skills improvement, and as a result – leads to the increase of probabilities for tertiary enrolment for 30+ aged population. • According to “high” variant of projection the increase of probabilities for boosting of educational level for representatives of junior aged groups will be possible. It’ll be stipulated by necessity of using of accumulated capacities (teaching staff, material infrastructure). • Strengthening of competition between educational institutions, stricter attestation’s requirements and thus loss of licenses by some institutionsmight stipulate the reduction of their number

30. Policy Recommendations As a result the demographic basis for future education enrolment might be significantly cut down. It’s improvement foresees the necessity: to increase the efficiency of public spending, to optimize resource distribution; to improve quality of schooling, teaching staff, resource using to provide the relevance of education and training towards the needs of the economy and labour market to create conditions for LLL as a priority of innovative development of education to improve quality of post secondary and non-tertiary education aimed at adaptation of the needs of enterprises, to involve of employers to design of curricula to introduce students loans, family allowances, grants for financial support to the low-income families (under conditions of financial constraints existence) to optimize regional distribution of material, finance and human resources. At the same time it’s necessary to account possible changes of out-flow and in-flow migration, and their influence on future education enrolment. It foresees needs of adaptation of non-native pupils of foreign mother tongue to national environment (allocation of financial resources for special assistance in the form of language support measures etc).

31. A tough decade has just ended! 40% fewer children age 7-16: Question and Answers?