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PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall

PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall. - Midterm February 10 - Readings on website. Progressive Legacy II: Recall. The Purpose Behind the Process All About Arnold Getting on the Ballot Campaign Finance Analyzing the Results Popular Feedback on Populism.

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PS 103A California Politics Progressive Legacy II: Recall

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  1. PS 103A California PoliticsProgressive Legacy II: Recall - Midterm February 10 - Readings on website

  2. Progressive Legacy II: Recall • The Purpose Behind the Process • All About Arnold • Getting on the Ballot • Campaign Finance • Analyzing the Results • Popular Feedback on Populism

  3. The Purpose Behind the Process • Another 1911 constitutional amendment pushed by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall: • Was justified as a way to attack the graft and corruption of the time. • Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.

  4. The Purpose Behind the Process:Wall of Shame • Targets of Progressive reformers: • Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913) • Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914) • Casualties of the Speakership fight: • Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995) • Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)

  5. The Purpose Behind the Process • To recall a statewide officer: • Gather signatures of registered voters equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office. • In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote. • To recall a legislator: • Equal in number to 20% of district vote.

  6. Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question. Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win. All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot. Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win. The Purpose Behind the Process:The Dual Ballot

  7. The Purpose Behind the Process • The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.

  8. All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot • Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis. • From Feb. 5th to April 24th, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures. • They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.

  9. All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot • Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24th, and eventually gave $3 million. • “I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith. • July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.

  10. All About Arnold:Campaign Finance • Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions. • Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes: • No limits on “independent expenditures.” • Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns

  11. All About Arnold:Campaign Finance • Davis’ advantage: • Technically, he was opposing an initiative, which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited. • Schwarzenegger’s advantage: • Who needs contributions when you’re rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.

  12. All About Arnold:$80 Million in 77 Days

  13. Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with 55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall. Replacement Ballot Arnold won with 48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory. He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos. All About Arnold:Analyzing the Results

  14. All About Arnold:Analyzing the Results

  15. All About Arnold:Party Registration Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration White: 44%-54% Democratic Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration

  16. All About Arnold:Support for the Recall Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis White: 50%-65% Support Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis

  17. All About Arnold:Change in Turnout from 2002 to 2003 Blue: Less than 2% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters White: 2%-4% Turnout Boost Red: More than 4% Increase in Turnout of Reg. Voters

  18. All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In • Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.

  19. Popular Feedback on Populism • Public Policy Institute of California poll

  20. Popular Feedback on Populism

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