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Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15

Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15. Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer April 19, 2013 Development Prospects Group World Bank Washington, D.C. Outline. Outlook for migration and remittance flows: 2013-15 KNOMAD. Key messages on outlook.

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Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15

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  1. Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15 DilipRatha and Hans Timmer April 19, 2013 Development Prospects Group World Bank Washington, D.C.

  2. Outline • Outlook for migration and remittance flows: 2013-15 • KNOMAD

  3. Key messages on outlook • Remittance continue to grow; developing received $401 bn in 2012 ; expect $513 bn by 2015. • Remittance prices are not falling anymore, particularly in low volume corridors where remittance is more important. • Migration needs to feature in Post-MDGs

  4. Remittances to developing countries to reach $401 bn in 2012 Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

  5. Top remittance recipients in 2012 as % of GDP, 2011 $ million, 2012e

  6. Remittance flows to developing countries

  7. Remittance growth moderates in 2012 in all regions, except MENA Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

  8. Russia: Oil prices continue to provide a cushion for remittances outflows from Russia Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

  9. In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives* *3-month moving averages Source: Current Population Survey

  10. Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap

  11. Migration is important for post 2015 development agenda • Migration affects development; and development affects migration. • Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be included in MDG discussions • How might migration be featured in the Post-2015 Agenda? • Reduce cost of migrating • Protect the rights and safety of migrants • Leverage migration for financing development

  12. Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important Cost of sending $200 Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database

  13. Proposed US immigration reforms can impact remittance flows to developing countries • Proposals: • Path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants • Employment verifications and increased border security • Improving the process to admit future workers, including unskilled ones. • Increases remittance flows in the long run by improving migrants employment opportunity and access to finance.

  14. Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development(KNOMAD)

  15. Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD) An open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review A global public good that is also a learning process

  16. Key Objectives of KNOMAD generating and synthesizing knowledge on migration issues generating a menu of policy choices based on multidisciplinary knowledge and evidence providing technical assistance and capacity building to sending and receiving countries

  17. Structure Twelve thematic working groups and four cross-cutting themes Supported by a small secretariat Guided by an Advisory Committee Contractual as well as voluntary contributions Multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank

  18. Data • Lower-skilled labor migration • Migration and security • Internal migration • High-skilled labor migration • Environmental change and migration • Integration issues in host communities • Thematic Working Groups • Mobilizing other diaspora resources • Demography and migration • Policy and institutional coherence • Migrant rights and social aspects • Remittances

  19. Cross-cutting themes Monitoring and Impact Evaluation Capacity Building Gender Public perception and communication

  20. Partnerships International and regional agencies Universities and research institutions Think tanks International Initiatives Networks Civil Society

  21. Outputs A menu of policy choices Analytical research products Policy briefs Operational toolkits, fact books Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs A few pilot projects and capacity building activities

  22. Timeline: Implementation begins today Has been in inception phase (ends in April 2013) Implementation phase (May 2013-Dec 2017) Evaluation – 2016 Pilot projects – 2016-17 Exit strategy

  23. Year 1: Some Activities Stocktaking of data and literature to identify gaps Organizing workshops and meetings Identifying experts and peer reviewers Developing a website and portal that is easy to use and accessible

  24. Thank you www.knomad.org

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