National Flood Workshop Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division

1. National Flood Workshop Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2. Presentation Outline Growing Water Issues America needs improved and expanded water resource services Water Forecasting Challenges Enhanced Hydrologic Decision Support Water Resources Vision 2020 New and Expanded Services Foundation for Services Transformation Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Inter-Agency Collaboration Integrated Water Resources Science & Services (IWRSS) Enhancing Support for RFCs & WFOs National Water Center Vision

3. Growing Water IssuesToo Much, Too Little, Poor Quality Growing need for water resource forecasts: Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating Decision-makers in water management sectors need: Expanded/new high resolution information in space and time Quantification of uncertainty to manage risk Enhanced communication of flood risk

4. Enhancing Hydrologic Decision Support • Quantify and communicate uncertainty • Develop next generation probabilistic hydrologic forecasts • Improve graphical delivery of forecasts • Shift towards conveyance of potential forecast flood impacts with inundation maps • Address evolving climate • “Stationary is dead” • Increased precipitation intensity and variability • Enhance forecasts of extreme flood events • Atlanta, September 2009 • Nashville, May 2010 • Arkansas, May 2010 • South Texas, July 2010 Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Lead Time Protection of Life & Property State/Local Planning Environment Flood Mitigation & Navigation Reservoir Control Agriculture Health Commerce

5. Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Flood Inundation Mapping • Provide spatial extent and depth of flood waters • Display inundation maps for levels from minor flooding through flood of record • Better mitigate impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities • Libraries include NWS flood severity categories and regulatory FEMA flood frequency maps • Implementation Status: • 56 Flood Inundation Map Libraries • Continued Partnership with FEMA, USACE, USGS, States, & Others water.weather.gov

6. Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Precipitation Page Enhancements • Improved Processing • More frequent updates • Enhanced Interface • RIDGE2 / Google Interface • User-Selectable Durations • Additional Download formats • Expanded Precipitation Data • Increase geographic domain (Alaska and Hawaii) • Increase temporal resolution • Expand archive (pre-2005) radar.srh.noaa.gov

7. Water Resources Vision 2020 Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of the Nation’s Water Supply • Provide resources and training to: • Enable RFCs to run high-resolution models and produce gridded forecasts of streamflow, salinity, and soil moisture • Expand role of the WFOs to help local decision makers use enhanced water forecasts, and function as decision-support experts for high-impact flood, drought, and water quality events

8. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) FC Community Hydrologic Prediction System FEWS Models FEWS Other Models NWS Models Models from Federal, State, Local, University and Partners USACE Models Flexible, open modeling architecture linking program elements • Implementation Status: • CHPS prototype hardware & software at all 13 RFCs • Conducting parallel operations at 4 RFCs, remaining 9 by early 2011 • Retire legacy NWSRFS system in early 2012

9. Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions • Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS • Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties • Implementation Status: • Demonstrating components of short-term capability at 6 RFCs • Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years • Initial version of full capability in 2013

10. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) USACE NOAA USGS • NOAA leading multi-agency consortium to: • Share technology, information, models, best practices • Improve the accuracy and timeliness of water information • Provide new high-resolution water resources information and forecasts • Streamline/integrate access to Federal water resource information • Create a Common Operating Picture • Status: • IWRSS MOU • Team Charter on System Interoperability and Data Synchronization • Team Charter on National Flood Inundation Mapping Services

11. Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) “Summit-to-sea” high-resolution water resources information & forecasts s Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent Runoff Streamflow Soil Moisture Precipitation Evapotranspiration Water Quality Groundwater Watershed to National Information

12. Implementation Themes Integrated Water Resources Science and Services(IWRSS)

13. Provide new high-resolution forecasts of water resource variables to help decision makers manage increasingly limited water supply Extend river and flood forecasting to provide maps showing forecasted spatial extent and depth of flooding Integrate water resources information to provide one-stop shopping for stakeholders Establish multi-agency proving ground to leverage capabilities and accelerate R2O Establish Common Operating Picture National Water Center Vision Addressing IWRSS Objectives Combine hydrologic forecasting operations and research to fill several critical gaps: