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IOWA

IOWA. “America’s Heartland” ”. Nick Marguccio Brian Walder Liz Cosgrove. Topography- “An Inclined Plane”. What We W ere C oncerned A bout. Start as rain, change to mix or ice, changeover to snow. ( esp in the north) Negative tilt late? Winds? Temperatures above 40?.

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IOWA

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  1. IOWA “America’s Heartland”” Nick Marguccio Brian Walder Liz Cosgrove

  2. Topography- “An Inclined Plane”

  3. What We Were Concerned About • Start as rain, change to mix or ice, changeover to snow. (esp in the north) • Negative tilt late? • Winds? • Temperatures above 40?

  4. Start of the Forecasting Period18z (Courtesy of the HPC)

  5. 12Z GFS for 18z

  6. NEXRAD for 18z

  7. Surface 18z

  8. Towards the Middle3z

  9. 12z GFS for 03z

  10. NEXRAD for 03z

  11. Surface 03z

  12. End of our Period12z

  13. 12z GFS for 12z

  14. NEXRAD for 12z

  15. Surface 12z

  16. What Can We Can Eliminate • Eliminated From Beginning: • Moderate Snow, Heavy Snow, Very Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Blowing Snow, Blowing & Drifting Dust, Smoke, Wind Chill, Extreme Wind Chill, Any Type of Flood, and Severe Thunderstorm

  17. After Looking Through Observations… • We Eliminated: • Snow Squall, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Ice Storm, Ice Pellets, Severe Winds, Lightning and Thunderstorm What Verified Was….

  18. Questionable Obs? Webster City, KEBS Zone 36

  19. SKEW-T

  20. Verification

  21. COCORAHS

  22. Dense Fog KMCW (Zone 17)

  23. Frost/Freeze Station KDEH, Zone 10

  24. How We Verified High Winds • At Clarion, IA: Zone 25 • KCAV 201855Z AUTO 13021G30KT 10SM SCT043 08/M03 A2986 RMK AO2

  25. Verifying 40 Degrees20Z Feb 20th

  26. MesoNet Site Data RDC14 (Zone 10)

  27. Recap… • Verification Summary: • 40 degrees – All zones • Flurries- 6-11, 16-19, 25-30, 36-42, 49-55, 62-68 • Snow shower - 6-11, 16-19, 25-30, 36-42, 49-55, 63-68 • Light snow – 19, 28, 29, 39, 66 • High Winds – 17, 25-27 ,36-39, 48-51, 60, 61 • Dense Fog – 17, 18, 39, 40, 42, 68 • Freeze/Frost – 10, 29, 40, 42, 54 • Liquid over .25 – 66, 67, 68

  28. Lessons Learned • Lessons Learned: • -          Check soundings to determine the depth cold and warm layers aloft. This helps in forecasting precip type. • -          Make sure to look at ensembles. They did a good job with precip type. • -          High-Res models are good and can lead you in the right direction, but don’t take them as gospel. • -          Don’t get too focused on zones reaching a certain temperature (in this case 40) that you forget to consider freeze/frost.

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