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Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage

New CLIVAR research focus. Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage

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Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage

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  1. New CLIVAR research focus Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage Karina von Schuckmann*, Bernard Barnier, Carol Anne Clayson, Catia Domingues, Sergey Gulev, Keith Haines, Simon Josey, Norman Loeb, Pierre-Philippe Mathieu, Mathew Palmer, Martin Visbeck, Kevin Trenberth * karina.von-schuckmann@univ-tln.fr

  2. Coherent assessment of I, II, III to estimate variability/changes in the energy of the climate system with greater accuracy over interannual/longer timescales. CHALLENGE I II III Changes in (mass, heat, momentum) fluxes withinatmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their interactions. => Socio-economic-environmental impacts

  3. How New CLIVAR research focus By analyzing the consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage estimates, data sets and information products based on different parts of the global observing systems (remote sensing and in situ) and ocean reanalysis: • Earth observation measurement constraints on ocean heat budget (ESA EO) • In situ observations of ocean heat content changes (GOOS and CLIVAR/GSOP) • Ocean (or coupled) reanalysis for atmosphere-ocean heat exchange, consistency of regional heat budgets and ocean heat content estimates (CLIVAR/GSOP, SeaFlux) •  First funding opportunities: ESA, ISSI WG, ENVIMED

  4. Expected Outcomes New CLIVAR research focus • Refinement of a scientific framework on consistency between • planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage • Evaluation of existing data sets and information products and their consistency • Recommendations on how to improve the observing systemsand derived information products, assimilation methods, ocean and climate models and surface fluxes • Contributing insights to related climate research topics such as anthropogenic climate change, seasonal climate prediction, decadal variability, predictability and prediction, sea-level variability and change.

  5. What causes sea level variability/change? A major and truly interdisciplinary challenge (strong ties to theory, observations, modeling) Stammer et al. (2013) A complex interplay of various components of the Earth system (e.g., ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere,Solid Earth), operating on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, leading to distinct local/regional changes. (but there are also non-climatic contributions).

  6. Regional/local sea level variations matter to society !!! Global mean Individual tide gauge series Within 1 m above current sea levels: • 150 million people living • 1 trillion dollars worth of assets Woodworth et al. (2011) Milne et al. (2009); Nicholls (2010) Jevrejeva et al. (2006)

  7. WCRP Grand Challenge: Sea-Level Change and Regional Impacts Mission: • To maintain/improve capabilities (in situ and remote) for monitoring regional sea level variability and change • To improve the quantitative understanding of natural and anthropogenic drivers of regional sea level variability and change • To reduce uncertainties in predictions/projections used for impact assessments and coastal zone management. Co-chairs: Catia Domingues and Detlef Stammer

  8. A number of partner communities • CLIVAR WG Heat Uptake • WGOMD, CMIP6 • CliC, ISMASS, ISMINT • US CLIVAR GRISO WG - follow on supported by CLIVAR-CliC • PAGES • IUGG – GIA, solid earth, … • GEWEX • JCOMM + GOOS + GLOSS + IOC Coastal Zone Management activity

  9. 2013 workshop activities Workshop on sea level rise, ocean/ice shelf interaction and ice sheets 18-20 February, Hobart. Workshop on high-end scenarios of regional sea level changes and their uncertainties 20-22 Nov. 2013, Hamburg .

  10. Current stage/early 2014 schedule: Scoping Team • The initial scoping team will be small in representatives but who should cover most of the important topics to draft work program and TORs for the next 5-10 years. • CLIC and other partner organizations are strongly encouraged to get involved in identifying community representatives. • Final compilation of team: February 2014 • Scoping meeting: April 2014 • Report to JSC June 2014 for approval • Further discussion and refinement at pan-CLIVAR meeting July 2014

  11. Thank you!

  12. Potential Initiatives •  1. Reconstruction of past changes in regional SL and contributions to them by climate, glaciological and geodetic factors with the goal to improve understanding of possible SL changes in the 21st century and their implications. • 2. Observations, process studies and modeling of ice-sheet dynamics and thermodynamics to improve representation of ice sheets in Earth System models and quantify their future mass loss to the oceans. • 3. Observations, process studies and modeling of ocean-ice shelf-ice sheet Interactions to improve representation in climate models of key processes that affect ocean water mass properties and circulation and of the impact of the ocean and ice shelves on ice sheets.

  13. Potential Initiatives • 4. Understanding relevant aspects of current variability and projected change • Natural modes of atmospheric variability driving regional SL and how these may change in a forced climate; • Contributions of individual processes (natural and anthropogenically driven) to past and present observed regional SL changes and how they will contribute in the future; • Critical evaluation and improvement of model simulations of global and regional SL: • inter-model spread, • missing processes, • increasing resolution, downscaling, • detection and attribution studies.

  14. Potential Initiatives 5. Coastal zone processes and their community implications SL extremes, storm surges and waves (tropical and extratropical); shelf-dynamics: integration of open ocean and shelf modeling; and provision of seasonal, decadal predictions of sea level and centennial projections for societal applications including vulnerability and risk studies.

  15. challenge New CLIVAR research focus Problem: Large uncertainties on the estimate of the energy flows and storage, as well as the challenge of their accurate measurements at the global scale. To achieve the adequate accuracy necessary for climate state and variability studies, through detection and decrease ofuncertainties of the global climate observing systemsand related data and information products.

  16. Over 93% of the energy (heat) accumulation in the climate system since 1971 is found in the ocean. Increase in ocean heat content(thermal expansion) is a major contribution to global sea level rise. Rhein et al. (2013) Church et al. (2013) S Figure source: IPCCC AR5 WGI

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