1 / 13

Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013

Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013. The context: summary . Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double – and sometimes more than triple – the state average.

winka
Download Presentation

Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Stockton/San Joaquin County CeasefireSummary & UpdateAugust 2013

  2. The context: summary • Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double – and sometimes more than triple – the state average. • Over the past five years, homicides have reached an average of 47 per year and a high of 71. • Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers University, found that during the implementation of “Ceasefire I” in Stockton (1998-2002), overall homicide was reduced by 43%. • This was the longest period of sustained reductions in the past 28 years. • During that period, homicides averaged 31 per year. • (Today we’ll be talking about Ceasefire II.)

  3. The context: violent crime in Stockton

  4. Context: Groups play a key role Historically, gangs, sets, crews and other groups play a significant role in violent crime in Stockton. These active groups and individuals play a role in over 60% and up to 80% of the homicides in Stockton. There are 34+/- groups citywide, but over the past two years only 18 have been actively violent. These 18 groups have a current membership of approximately 700 – even fewer of these individuals are at very highest risk of violence at any one time.

  5. Findings: Summary of group member-involved violence

  6. Ceasefire: the Research • Study Main Outcome • Boston Operation Ceasefire -63% youth homicide • Indianapolis IVRP -34% total homicide • Stockton Operation Peacekeeper -42% gun homicide • Lowell PSN -44% gun assaults • Cincinnati CIRV -42% GMI homicide, -22% nonfatal shootings • Newark Ceasefire No sig. reduction in gunshot wound incidents • LA Operation Ceasefire Sig. short-term reduction in violent, gun crime • Chicago PSN -37% homicide, -30% recidivism rate • High Point DMIs 3 of 4 neighborhoods had -44%-56% in part I UCR crime; all up to -74% in drug offenses • Nashville DMI -55% reduction in drug offenses • Rockford DMI -22% non-violent offenses • Hawaii HOPE -26% recidivism rate • Boston Re-entry Init. -30% recidivism for violent crime

  7. Ceasefire: the research (2) Effective – imagine flipping a coin 13 times & getting heads 12 times – effective across different cities, groups& economic conditions. Driven by communication: Makes highest-risk individuals & groups aware of the personal & community costs involved in violence by sharing in a direct, respectful manner. Ceasefire’s hard. Many cities that start fail to fully implement/sustain. Long term correlations between quality of implementation & results (Boston, Cincinnati).

  8. 10 Control Variables Gun Recoveries Sentence Length 5 Forums 0 -0.8 -1 -2.2 -5 -2.7 Prosecutions -10 -11 -15 Combined Effect -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -40.1 -45 The role of direct communication Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment” In Chicago, the impact of direct communication (“call-ins”) on violence was the most powerful part of the strategy. **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression

  9. What we mean by “communication” • SMALL MEETINGS: “CALL INS” • Places of community importance: churches, community centers. Seating: square or circle. • Highest-risk young men (& families, supporters): 5-20+. • Neighborhood leaders, formerly incarcerated, LEspeak: 8-10, to the point (3-4 mins), 1 hr max. • Message: we care about & respect you, cost of violence to them & community (including consequences): no lectures/scare tactics: clearly stated that violence must stop SCP

  10. Call-Ins: The Basic Set Up Supporters Time-keeper

  11. Call-ins: Speaker Order CO-HOSTS:CLERGY LEADER, POLICE CHIEF FORMERLY-INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER FORMERLY- INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER CLERGY/SPIRITUAL LEADER VICTIM OF VIOLENCE HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL PD REP DISTRICT ATTORNEY: PROBATION OFFICER: US ATTORNEY: CO-HOSTS: SUMMARIZEMESSAGING… (…TRANSITION TO DINNER, STATEMENTS OF COMMITMENT BY SERVICE PROVIDERS & CONVERSATIONS W/COMMUNITY VOLUNTEERS) 45 Min TOTAL

  12. Implementation update, early results • Night walks begin in fall 2012. • One-on-one Ceasefire messaging begins in mid-November 2012. • Call-ins convened on April 11 & August 8, with next scheduled for November 2013 • (Analysis is ongoing, including May 7, 2013 SPD/Probation Dept. Social Network Analysis workshop w/Andrew Papachristos of Yale University. • YTD 2013 homicides are down approx. 60% compared to 2012, YTD non-fatal injury shootings are down approx. 50%.

  13. Next steps: institutionalize & expand reach, with continued focus on core implementation cycle

More Related