2014 CCC Environmental Scan

1. 2014 CCC Environmental Scan Link to Watch Live Version

2. 2014 CCC Environmental Scam Definition of Environmental Scan: Careful monitoring of an organization's internal and external environments for detecting early signs of opportunities and threats that may influence its current and future plans.

3. Organization of Report: • National Theme: Accountability & Transparency • Demographics & CCC Enrollment • Occupational Data Sets • Coconino Community College • Student Groups • Enrollment Patterns • Programs / Majors & Awards • Big Picture: Course Activity and Student Success • Student Support Services • Finance

4. Accountability & Transparency- Performance Based Funding State funding has been based on FTE student enrollment. Provides incentives for access, but not for program completion. • 25 States have a funding formula in place based on: • Completion • Time to Degree • Transfer Rates • # Degrees Awarded • # Low SES Graduates • 5 States are transitioning to PBF • Source: • http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/performance-funding.aspx

5. Associates Degree has the Largest Default Rate 18% AZ 2010 Public Community College AVG Default = 24% CCC’s 2010 3 YR Default = 23% Accountability & Transparency - Student Aid Sources: http://projectonstudentdebt.org/2013_CDR_Spreadsheets.vp.html http://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr.html https://www.nslds.ed.gov/nslds_SA/defaultmanagement/search_cohort_3yr2010.cfm No Loans No Loans

6. Accountability & Transparency - Technology Using Technology to Provide cost effective access to opportunity. Online & Blended Learning – Evolution of Pedagogy in Virtual Space Consistency in Curriculum Content, Design, Presentation & Assessment Across All Delivery Modalities and Programs READ • Universal Course Shell Template Design and Implementation to Enhance Student Outcomes in Online Coursework.pdf • Using a Learning Management System to Facilitate Learning Outcomes Assessment.pdf

7. 2013 Demographics - Arizonans Lived Worked

8. 2013 Demographics – Coconino Residents Lived Worked http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

9. Demographics Source: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml### Despite lower earnings in Flagstaff for those with Bachelors and Graduate degrees, there is a larger proportion of them here. Flagstaff is a desirable place to live. Flag has lower proportion of Natives than Coconino County

10. Demographics – CCC Enrollment Map of FA13 CCC Enrollment - Permanent Address Conclusions: Most CCC students originate from Flagstaff. Though 30% of CCC students originate from outside of the county, Race / Ethnicity is fairly representative of Coconino County.

11. CCC Enrollment from Coconino County High Schools 6 of 13 Coconino County H.S. are located in Flagstaff, and they account for 64% of total 2013 County H.S. enrollment. After accounting for the size of the H.S. Grad. Class, most Flagstaff H.S. have greater CCC enrollment than H.S. outside of Flagstaff.

12. CCC Enrollment – Dual, CAVIAT, & High Schools High Rate of Program Participation Participants enroll at CCC after HS graduation more than non-participants Dual / CAVIAT that go on to be CCC students earned 3 X more degrees / certs than those that did not participate in the H.S. programs.

13. Definitions for Occupational Data Sets Bureau of Labor Statistics & National Center for Education Statistics Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) The SOC system is used by Federal statistical agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of 840 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition. Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) The CIP is a taxonomic coding scheme that contains titles and descriptions of primarily postsecondary instructional programs. It was developed to facilitate NCES’ collection and reporting of postsecondary degree completions by major field of study using standard classifications that capture the majority of reportable program activity. Sources: http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2002165 http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/resources.aspx?y=55 Select SOC to CCC CIP.xlsx SOC Definitions.xlsx

14. Definitions for Occupational Data Sets Bureau of Labor Statistics Education by Occupation Most Occupations List a Typical Education Needed for Entry Source: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_occupational_data.htm

15. Definitions for Occupational Data Sets Bureau of Labor Statistics State Occupational Employment Projections Developed in the labor market information sections of each State Employment Security Agency. Employment may not be sufficient to warrant the development of occupational projections in every occupation in each State, or the data may be confidential. Occupations for which projections are not available are indicated by empty cells. Source: http://www.projectionscentral.com/ Additional Information on Occupation Projections http://www.bls.gov/ooh/

16. Definitions for Occupational Data Sets • Bureau of Labor Statistics • May 2013 Occupational Employment Statistics • The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program produces employment and wage estimates annually for over 800 occupations. These estimates are available for the nation as a whole, for individual States, and for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. NOTE: Coconino County = Flagstaff Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) • Uses of OES data • Analysis of occupational employment • Analysis of occupational wages • Development of occupational projections • Vocational counseling and planning • Industry skill and technology studies • Market analysis • Source: • http://www.bls.gov/oes/home.htm

17. Definitions for Occupational Data Sets Living Wage Across all family sizes, the living wage exceeds the poverty threshold, often used to identify need. The cost of housing and childcare for families with children exceeds all other expenses. The living wage varies based on the cost of living and taxes where families live. http://livingwage.mit.edu/

18. Occupational Data Sets (Arizona & Coconino)Data SourcesStandard Occupational Codes (2013)Typical Education for Entry in an OccupationCCC Degree/Cert mapped to OccupationsTotal Employment by Occupation for AZ & Coconino CountyShort & Long Term AZ Occupation Projections (% Change & Annual Openings)Occupation Median Hourly Wage for AZ & Coconino CountyOccupation Median Annual Wage for AZ & Coconino County Select 2013 Arizona.xlsx2013 Coconino.xlsx

19. 2013 AZ & Coconino Data Sets _General Conclusions Coconino CountyMany occupations barely pay a living wage for 1 adult with no children.Many occupations that provide a higher wage, require more than an associates degree, also tend to employ few in the county, and have poor projections for employment growth. Promising occupational areas: Healthcare, Protective Services, & Construction. Though many occupational areas may not be promising overall, there are specific occupations within some areas that may be good options for CCC students. ArizonaOccupation wages are greater and cost of living is less than in Coconino County.Most promising occupational areas: Healthcare & Construction.Overall, there are more occupational options for CCC students. Read Overview of Occupational Projections to 2022 Job Growth & Education Requirements through 2020

20. Coconino Community College: Enrollment Groups We are particularly interested in the 1st time to Continuing path. CCC FA11 – FA12 Retention 65%, AZ average 77%. Select Pipeline New Tran. Award Dual / CAVIAT Cont. Cont. 1st Time Transfer Other New Stop Out

21. Coconino Community College: Enrollment T_1 First Time Students 1) Many distinct patterns of enrollment. 2) Few of which support the traditional notion enrollment. 3) Conventional characterization of part-time or full-time students is questionable. 4) Variation in enrollment patterns create program completion challenges. Select 1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdf

22. Coconino Community College: Enrollment & Awards T_1 First Time Students 1) Few students earn a degree or certificate from CCC. 2) The greatest % of awards occurs around 7-10 semesters or in years three and four. 3) Students that started out in the Full Time group earned more awards. NOTE: Correlation ≠ Causation Select 1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdf

23. Coconino Community College: Enrollment & Transfer T_1 First Time Students 1) CCC students transfer at a very high rate. 2) Transfer is highest (7%) just after students first Fall term at CCC (T_2). 3) Transfer is nearly as high (6%) in the subsequent Fall (T_4). 4) There is a gradual decrease in transfer rates each Fall Term (T_4-6%, T_7-5%, T_10-4%). Select 1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdf

24. Coconino Community College: Awards & Transfer CCC Very Few Annual Awards 16% (AZ 30%) Many Transfers without CCC Award 37% (23%) Read AZCC 2014 District Outcomes Report.pdf AZCC 2014 Student Progress and Outcomes Report.pdf CCC 2014 Student Progress and Outcomes Report.pdf

25. Coconino Community College: Programs (Declared Majors) Warning: Gainful Employment 80% CAUTION: Declared Majors may not be a good way to gauge program activity. Students are free to declare and change majors in most programs at any time. Looking at program completion and/or the specific classes taken by students is a better estimate of program activity!

26. Coconino Community College: Awards Completion 81% Lib Arts & Sciences General Studies & Humanities Associates most popular in AZ. Flag College of America Associate Awards were 95% in Health Professions (n=69). AZ Community College Program Activity.xlsx Select

27. Coconino Community College: Bigger Picture Data Content: FA13 Student Groups:Dual/CAVIAT, 1st Time, New CCC Transfer, Continuing AY2013-14 Courses: 316 (Subjects: 56) Active Programs/Majors: 64 Instructional Method: In Person, Remote Course Success: Pass (A,B,C) Fail (D,F,W) Exploratory Data Analysis Data Key In Person Pass Pass Remote In Person Fail Remote Fail In Person Remote Select AY2013-14 Dual CAVIAT Course Activity.xlsx AY2013-14 1st Time Course Activity.xlsx AY2013-14 New Transfer Course Activity.xlsx AY2013-14 Continuing Course Activity.xlsx AY2013-14 Course Activity by Subj-Level.xlsx

28. Coconino Community College: Bigger Picture Observations Dual / CAVIAT had highest success rate 95% (1st 79%, Transfers 82%, Continuing 84%). Classes grouped into Subjects & Levels: Remedial, 100 Level, 200 Level Subject and Level activity is similar across student groups !? 1st time student course success is substantially lower than continuing students in specific subject areas. Transfer student course success rate is substantially lower than continuing students in specific areas. Similar Activity Different Success Activity & Success by Level.xlsx Select

29. Coconino Community College: Bigger Picture Start of Term No Refund FTSE Grades: Withdraw (W) 1 8 • Early Drops: Impact • Students $$$ • FT/PT Fin. Aid • Section Size Calc. 45 Course Success Rates Dashboard End of Term Select

30. Coconino Community College: Support Services Graduating Student Survey AY2013-14

31. Coconino Community College: Support Services What would you tell new first year students? “Be careful what major/program you invest your time in.” “Don’t waste time taking classes that don’t have any relation to your major. stay focused.” “Make sure you get an advisor who can point you in the right direction with a plan for classes to take each semester so you’re not wasting your time on classes that may not really be necessary for your program of interest.” “Meet with advising to plan out schedule.” “Meet with advisors to develop the best plan for graduation.” “Meet with an advisor as often as possible, monthly even.” “Meet with an advisor every semester.” “Meet with an advisor right away, develop a plan, and stick to the plan.” “Find the one teacher who will help you no matter what.” Graduating Student Survey AY2013-14 Advising was the top rated service, with 80% indicating that it is Extremely Important! Select Grad Surveys 2013-14.xlsx

32. Coconino Community College: Support Services 21 Colleges Which Colleges are like CCC and what are they doing? Identifying Comparison Institutions • Campus setting • Miles to University • Housing • Student Population • Student Faculty ratio • % Full time • % Native American • % White • FT Fall-to-Fall Retention • Grad Rate • Transfer-out rate • Athletics • Loan default rate Select Comparison Institutions.xlsx Student Services Programs.docx Blue Mountain Career Pathways

33. Coconino Community College: Finance Recent Past Revenue and Expenditures calculated at the program level. Near Future Revenue and Expenditures calculated at the subject level.

34. Long-Term Financial Planning • The College has a long-term structural deficit because of very low property tax rates and State Aid. The chart below shows the General Fund revenues and expenses after the implementation of the Financial Austerity Plan where the expenses exceed revenues in FY 2022. • Assumptions: • Revenues – Average growth of 2.4%: • Property Tax Collections – 2% levy increase plus 1% new construction growth • Tuition rates – $2 increase per year to standard rate • Enrollment growth - 1% per year based upon county population growth trend • State Aid – 0% growth • Expenditures - Average growth of 3.4%: • Personnel cost – 11 yr. average increases of 3.8% - This average increase includes increased part-time faculty associated with 1% enrolment growth and the planned increase of 3 advisors when the TAACCCT grant ends. • All other expense categories – average increases of 2.5% per year including increased supplies associated with 1% enrollment growth per year.

35. Long-Term Financial Planning

36. Summary:Performance Based Funding – Report our Student SuccessStudent Loan Default Rates - Success in EmploymentConsistency - Student SuccessCCC Programs & Occupations – Offering Viable OptionsDual / CAVIAT (3 x Degrees Certs & 95% Course Success)1st Time Student to Continuing Student Pathway – WeakProviding Many Options but Enrollment & Completion in FEW areas!SS- Advising, Advising, Advising – Mandatory?Financial Sustainability- Long Term Plan