Gustavo Jorge Goni National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

1. Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting Gustavo Jorge Goni National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida, USA Mark DeMaria, NOAA, USA. John Knaff, NOAA, USA. Charles Sampson, NRL, USA. Isaac Ginis, Univ. Rhode Island, USA. Francis Bringas, Univ. of Miami / CIMAS, USA. Alberto Mavume, Univ. of Cape Town, South Africa. Chris Lauer, NOAA, USA. I-I Lin, National Taiwan University, Taiwan. M. M. Ali, National Remote Sensing Center, India. Paul Sandery, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia. Silvana Ramos-Buarque, Mercator Ocean, France. KiRyong Kang, National Typhoon Center, South Korea. Avichal Mehra, NOAA, USA. Eric Chassignet, Florida State University/COAPS, USA. George Halliwell, University of Miami, USA. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

2. NW Pac Atlantic NE Pac N Indian SE Indian SW Pac SW Indian Global tropical cyclone genesis 1990-2005 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

3. 1990-2005 = 15% reduction 72h lead time = 0% reduction 24h lead time 1970-2005 = 50% reduction 72h lead time Error reduction in track and intensity forecast (North Atlantic) TC track prediction  Intensity prediction GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

4. Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05) Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98) NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03) Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03) The oceans and TC intensification Hurricane force winds > 64 kts 1972: Leipper and Volgenau 2000: Shay et al Adapted from DeMaria and Kaplan 26oC GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

5. Tropical Cyclone IntensificationHurricane Katrina GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

6. Altimetry-derived isotherm depths GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

7. Global validation for May 30, 2007 www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone Rms dif = 15 kJ/cm2 Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

8. TC : ocean models and efforts GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

9. TC and ocean models and efforts GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

10. Error reduction in Intensity forecast North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

11. Ivan 20% Katrina, Rita 5% Wilma 13% Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes Mainelli et al, 2008 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

12. Observed w/o NHC OHC Assimilation With NHC OHC Assimilation NOAA/NCEP intensity predictionRita (2005) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

13. HYCOM - Hurricane Ivan (2004) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

14. GOM: Interannual variability GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

15. Pacific Ocean GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

16. Mozambique Channel Goni et al, 2008 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

17. North Indian Ocean May 2003 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

18. OceanMAPS SH OHC50m OHC200m SSTA TCHP D26C …….. UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MONITORING & FORECASTING • Routine analysis and forecasting of heat content measures in Australian region based on BLUElink OceanMAPS http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hcf/ocean_hcf.shtml http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hc/ocean_hc.shtml Applications in the Australian region GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

19. CLAM COUPLED LIMITED AREA MODELLING AND PREDICTION SYSTEM • Regional version of BLUElink ocean model coupled to Bureau of Meteorology TC Prediction Model TCLAPS • Designed to investigate impact of coupling on ocean and weather prediction skill. • Main application is directed towards improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Applications in the Australian region GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

20. Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPa Cat 2 : 979  Pa 965 hPa Cat 3 : 964  Pa 945 hPa Cat 4 : 944 Pa920 hPa Cat 5 : Pa920 hPa GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATOR TC RAMMASUN TC RAMMASUN 8-13 May, 2008 Averaged Temperature in the Oceanic Mixed Layer Mixed Layer Temp GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

21. Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPa Cat 2 : 979  Pa 965 hPa Cat 3 : 964  Pa 945 hPa Cat 4 : 944 Pa920 hPa Cat 5 : Pa920 hPa GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATOR Gulf of Mexico PSY3V1 Global (regular grid 1/2°) POSTER: Investigation on an oceanic index for monitoring Tropical Cyclones GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

22. 1 or 3 altimeters ? (left) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1, GFO and Envisat. (right) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1 only. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

23. 1 or 3 altimeters ? (left) 1993-2005 average degradation in the field of TCHP after two altimeters (ERS2 and GFO) are removed. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

24. Work Ahead • Research to Operations • Analysis of key issues: TC translation speed, inner core - ocean interactions, positive-negative feedback. • Improve models performance. • Ocean observing system. • Continue to have the international community involved in this type of studies. • Only possible if real-time sea height fields able to resolve mesoscale from altimetry are available GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France