Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)

1. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014

2. Outline • A short introduction to GIPPS • Implementation of GIPPS • WWRP Polar Prediction Project • WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative • Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin • Coordination

3. GIPPS • Global Integrated Polar Prediction System • Global: International effort and poles have global influences • Integrated: Interconnection between systems and system will be integrated (research, observations and services) • Polar prediction will be central • Three time scales • Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal) • Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal) • Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries)

4. Benefits • Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate • Improved models • Improved data assimilation systems • Optimized observing system • Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term planning)

5. The WWRP Polar Prediction Project(2013-2022)

6. OpportunitiesandRisks • Some statements from the report: • The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn) • The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions • Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently • http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/reports/climate-change/arctic-report-2012

7. PPP Mission Statement „Promote cooperative international researchenablingdevelopmentofimprovedweatherand environmental predictionservicesforthe polar regions, on time scalesfromhourlytoseasonal“ An importantaddition: „This constitutesthehourlytoseasonalresearchcomponentofthe WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“

8. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group • Thomas Jung (chair) • Peter Bauer • David Bromwich • Paco Doblas-Reyes • Chris Fairall • Marika Holland • TrondIversen • Brian Mills • Pertti Nurmi • Don Perovich • Phil Reid • Ian Renfrew • Gregory Smith • Gunilla Svensson • Mikhail Tolstykh SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013 • Jonny Day (APECS liasion) • Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)

9. WWRP-PPP Plans

10. Research Areas Source: PPP Implementation Plan

11. Connections – p24 of PPP IP

12. Observational Challenges Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMPandPILOT Polar datacoverageofconventionalobservations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 • P. Bauer (ECMWF)

13. RoleofSeaIce in WeatherPrediction T2m Difference: Observed Minus PersistedSeaIce • P. Bauer (ECMWF)

14. Seaiceprediction Mean September seaiceconcentrations (1979-2007) MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) andRignot et al. (2012)

15. PPP FlagshipActivities • Seaiceprediction • Explorepredictability • Developpredictionsystems • Linkagesbetween polar regionsandlower-latitudes • Determinemechanismsandstrengths • Implicationsforpredictions in themid-latitudes • Improvedavailabilityofobservationsfrom polar regions • The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

16. Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 • YOPP mid- 2017 to mid-2019 • Consolidation Phase mid-2019 to 2022 Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) • Preparation Phase2013 to mid-2017 • Consolidation Phasemid-2019 to 2022 Community engagement Intensive observing periods Data denial experiments Align with otherplanned activities Dedicated model experiments Model developments Develop imple- mentation plan Research into use & value of forecasts Dedicated reanalyses Preparatory research Intensive verification effort Operational implementation Summer schoolWorkshops YOPP publications Summer school Liaise with funders YOPP conference

17. YOPPKey Elements • Comprehensiveobservationalsnapshot • In situ andsatellitedata • Observingsystem design (datadenialexperiments) • Supersites (modelgridboxesMOSAiC) • Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP) • Community datasets (reforecasts, specialarchiving etc.) • Frontierexperiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling) • See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1

18. Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki • 8 April 2014 • One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on observations and many partners invited (including IICWG) • 9 April 2014 • Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel as part of AOS-2 on 9 April • “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater)

19. Immediate PlansWWOSC & Linkages • 16-21 August 2014 • PPP session at World Weather • Open Science Conference, Montréal • PPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this will “finalise” YOPP Plan • 10-12 December 2014 • International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI

20. PPP – Take homemessges • Polar predictionis a topicofincreasingimportance • Decisionmaking in the high-latitudes • Implicationsforthelower-latitudes • PPP promotesresearchin polar prediction • PPP also promotesresearchintotheuseandvalueof polar predictions in decisionmaking • PPP has a strong educationalcomponent • PPP flagshipthemes • Seaiceprediction • Linkagesbetween polar and non-polar regions • YOPP (seedraft YOPP Implementation Plan)

21. Coordination • EC-PORS • International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI) • PPP and PCPI

22. International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction

23. Recommendationsof EC-PORS to Cg-17 Points Raised Earlier: • Regular feedback on progress • Coordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of ICO for Polar Prediction at AWI • Coordination with other organisations • Promote GIPPS with • Member states (Trust Fund) • Funding agencies • Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budget Suggestion: • Draftproposaltobediscussedandpossiblyrevised in Research break out group • Discussionoftheoutcomewith all panelmembers

24. Thankyou!