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Leasing Industry Results in H1 201 2. Polish Leasing Association Press Conference 30th J uly 2012 Intercontinental Hotel War saw. List of Polish Leasing Association M embers. Masterlease Polska S.A. Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o.
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Leasing Industry Results in H1 2012 Polish Leasing Association Press Conference 30th July 2012 Intercontinental Hotel Warsaw
List of Polish Leasing Association Members Masterlease Polska S.A. Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o. NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o. Nordea Finance Polska S.A. ORIX Polska S.A. PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o. PKO Leasing S.A. Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A. Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o. SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o. Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o. VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A. VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o. Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Polski Związek Wynajmu i Leasingu Pojazdów BAWAG Leasing & Fleet Sp. z o. o. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o. BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A. Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o. De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A. Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A. DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o. Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. Getin Leasing S.A. Handlowy-Leasing S.A. IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o. Immoconsult Polska Sp. z o.o. ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o. Kredyt Lease S.A.
I-III 12 / IV-VI 12 / IV- I-VI 12 / I-III 2011 I-III 2012 IV-VI 2011 IV-VI 2012 I-VI 2011 I-VI 2012 I-III 11 VI 11 I-VI 11 Vehicles 3 611 4 019 4 411 4 447 8 022 8 467 11,3% 0,8% 5,6% Passenger Delivery Cars 1 941 2 305 18,8% 2 608 2 462 -5,6% 4 548 4 767 4,8% Trucks 1 481 1 497 1,1% 1 607 1 690 5,2% 3 088 3 188 3,2% Other vehicles 189 217 14,5% 196 295 50,9% 385 512 33,0% Machines 2 271 2 436 2 796 2 922 5 066 5 357 7,3% 4,5% 5,7% IT 115 146 133 146 248 292 26,6% 9,5% 17,4% Planes, ships, railway 101 164 343 279 443 443 62,7% -18,6% -0,1% Other movables 57 85 76 69 133 154 48,4% -8,5% 16,0% Movables – total number 6 155 6 850 11,3% 7 758 7 863 1,4% 13 912 14 713 5,8% Real Estate 479 205 -57,2% 164 208 27,0% 643 413 -35,8% Financing altogether (leasing+loans) 6 634 7 055 6,3% 7 921 8 071 1,9% 14 555 15 126 3,9% Leasing Industry Results in H1 2012 (1) Total number of assets financed by leasing companies • 2012 reported the end of growth on the movables leasing market which commenced in March 2010. Indeed, Q2 2012 reported the final growth of the financed assets value but the monthly estimations in April and May proved negative dynamics (YOY). • After 14.9% growth of the financed movable assets in 2011, movables leasing market reported the 5.8% growth in 2012. The market slows down since in Q1 the dynamics amounted to 11.3%. • Machines remain the main equalizer of the market growth, which is connected to the high exploitation of production capacity in comapnies (79.9% at the end of Q2 2012). • The end of Q2 reported the improvement of results on trucks leasing market. It is significant as the monthly data for the period of March-May showed gradual degradation. • The situation on light vehicles market significantly deteriorated in Q2 2012, mainly due to 15.6% drop of the value of leased trucks and delivery vehicles up to 3.5 tons. Meanwhile, the dynamics of passenger cars leasing market amounted to -2.6% YOY. The drop in the value of light vehicles finansing derives from gradual decrease of domestic demand, especially the decrease of individual consumption. • The value of machines financed by leasing companies in 2012 was significantly supported with loan, which constitutes 30% share in total production. • So far 2012 has not brought any improvement on the real estate leasing market. The high dynamics (YOY) in Q2 results mainly from the low base of 2011.
I-III 12 / IV-VI 12 / IV- I-VI 12 / I-III 2011 I-III 2012 IV-VI 2011 IV-VI 2012 I-VI 2011 I-VI 2012 ` I-III 11 VI 11 I-VI 11 Vehicles 3 528 3 942 4 255 4 353 7 783 8 294 11,7% 2,3% 6,6% Passenger Delivey Cars 1 925 2 291 19,0% 2 474 2 451 -0,9% 4 399 4 742 7,8% Trucks 1 461 1 436 -1,7% 1 587 1 628 2,6% 3 047 3 064 0,6% Other vehicles 142 214 51,5% 195 274 40,6% 336 488 45,2% Machines 1 824 1 775 2 206 1 983 4 031 3 758 -2,7% -10,1% -6,8% IT 113 145 131 143 244 288 27,9% 9,3% 17,9% Planes, ships, railway 98 161 340 275 438 436 64,1% -19,0% -0,4% Other movables 57 84 75 69 132 153 46,3% -8,5% 15,1% Movables – total number 5 620 6 106 8,6% 7 007 6 822 -2,6% 12 627 12 929 2,4% Real Estate 347 201 -42,1% 136 208 52,8% 483 409 -15,4% Leasing altogether 5 967 6 307 5,7% 7 143 7 030 -1,6% 13 110 13 337 1,7% Leasing Industry Results in H1 2012 (2) Assets financed with leasing Source: Polish Leasing Association
I-III 12 / IV-VI 12 / IV- I-VI 12 / I-III 2011 I-III 2012 IV-VI 2011 IV-VI 2012 I-VI 2011 I-VI 2012 I-III 11 VI 11 I-VI 11 Vehicles 83 78 156 95 239 173 -6,4% -39,1% -27,7% Passenger Delivery Cars 15 14 -5,5% 134 11 -91,8% 149 25 -83,0% Trucks 20 61 203,6% 21 62 202,0% 41 123 202,8% Other vehicles 48 2 -95,4% 1 22 1700,5% 49 24 -51,1% Machines 447 660 589 939 1 036 1 599 47,9% 59,4% 54,4% IT 2 1 2 3 5 4 -41,1% 21,5% -8,8% Planes, ships, railway 2 3 3 4 6 7 7,9% 27,6% 18,8% Other movables 0 1 0 0 0 1 2438,7% -7,0% 427,6% Movables – total number 534 743 39,1% 751 1 041 38,7% 1 285 1 784 38,9% Real Estate 132 4 -96,7% 28 0 -100,0% 160 4 -97,3% Loans altogether 667 748 12,1% 778 1 041 33,7% 1 445 1 789 23,8% Machines financed with loans Other Machines and Devices 6% Medical Equipment Building Equipment 8% 7% Machines for Food Industry 1% Machines for Plastics Production and Metalwork 6% Agricultural Machines Printing 70% Machines 4% Leasing Industry Results in H1 2012 (3) Assets financed with loans • All the assets financed with loans constitute 11.8% of the whole leasing companies production in 2012. In 2011 the index amounted to 11.0%. • Machines constitute the main pillar of investment financed with loans. Their share in the whole production grew to 89.4% in H1 2012in comparison to 74.7% in 2011. • The use of loans in the case of finansing light vehicles and real estate reported significant decrease. • The use of EU funds by the farmers results in dominant share of agricultural machines in loan financing sector. Source: Polish Leasing Association
2 000 220% Total number of assets financed in H1 2012 [PLN mln] 170% Sales YOY 1 500 1 305 1 181 120% 932 937 1 001 891 1 000 70% 857 31% 649 614 607 -2% 20% -14% 26% 29% 500 -30% 3% 6% -6% -12% -30% 0 -80% ING EFL BRE Getin Pekao BZ WBK Raiffeisen VB Leasing Millennium PKO Leasing Company Results in H1 2012 • Positive 4% dynamics of assets value financed by leasing companies in 2012 origins from very good sales results obtained by individual companies. • Data for H1 2012 shows that there were six companies which increased the turnover of 40% and ten companies where the dynamics of financed assets exceeded 25%. • Out of 33 companies which provide data for the Polish Leasing Association 18 reported negative production dynamics in 2012 (including 4 of TOP 10). There were 6 such companies in 2011. • Lower turnover in real estate segment affects total results of companies more involved in this sector in 2011 (ING, BRE, Raiffeisen). • Good results in 2012 were obtained owing to the companies of more corporate character, which took greater advantage of investment revival among medium and small companies. These were particularly the companies belonging to bank groups which are leaders in corporate banking sector. • Clearly higher pace of development is visible among medium and small leasing companies. The sales results of five leading companies in 2011 dropped in 2012 of 6.9% in movables sector while it grew of 14.0% YOY in other sectors of the market . Even greater difference is noted for TOP 3 of 2011: -14,1% vs. +13,4%. Source: Polish Leasing Association
Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market PKO Leasing Others 25,5% Others Raiffeisen 18,1% 15% 1,2% SGB 1,5% BZ WBK Industrial 1,9% Buiildings 50% Commercial Millenium and Service Centres ING 1,9% 20,6% 35% BNP Paribas BRE 14,4% 14,8% Leasing Industry Results in H1 2012 – Real Estate • The value of leased real estate units in H1 2012 amounted to PLN 413 million, which proves 35.8% decrease per year. • The value of granted finances in Q1 and Q2 2012 was at the similar level: 205 mln PLN in Q1 and 208 mln PLN in Q2, which is significantly below average quarterly result of 2004-2009 (618 mln PLN) and proves the difficulties with obtaining so called long money. • The number of reported contracts in 2012 slightly increased in comparison to H1 2011: 111 vs. 98. Clearly negative dynamics of the financed assets results from significant drop of the average transaction value. In 2012 it amounted to 3.04 mln PLN and decreased of 35.7% in comparison to 2011, which means it is still significantly lower when compared to early years – in 2004-2009 the average amounted to 14.83 mln PLN. • Real estate leasing market becomes more concentrated. We estimate that 92% of transactions were valuably (90% quantitatively) concluded by four leading companies. In the whole 2011 the index of turnover value amounted to 72% and of the number of transactions – 79%. High concentration of the market results from lower number of companies which concluded the transactions of real estate financing: up to 8 in H1 2012 in comparison to 12 in 2011. PKO Leasing became a new leader and overtook ING. • Industrial buildings and commercial &service centres are dominant in the objective market structure. No leasing transactions concerning office facilities and hotels& recreational centres were noted. Source: Polish Leasing Association
100% 100% Currency Structure of New Production – real estate 90% 90% Currency Structure of New Production - movables Leasing in PLN 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% Leasing in PLN 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Leasing in Foreign Currency 10% 10% Leasing in Foreign Currency 0% 0% 2007 2007 I Q 2008 I Q 2009 I Q 2010 I Q 2011 I Q 2012 II Q 2008 II Q 2009 II Q 2010 II Q 2011 II Q 2012 IV Q 2008 IV Q 2009 IV Q 2010 IV Q 2011 I Q 2008 I Q 2009 I Q 2010 I Q 2011 I Q 2012 III Q 2008 III Q 2009 III Q 2010 III Q 2011 II Q 2008 II Q 2009 II Q 2010 II Q 2011 II Q 2012 IV Q 2008 IV Q 2009 IV Q 2010 IV Q 2011 III Q 2008 III Q 2009 III Q 2010 III Q 2011 Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market • In 2012, similarly to earlier years, financing in PLN was dominant in the structure of new production for movables leasing. Still, the share of leasing in foreign currency increased: from 23.7% in 2011 to 25.9% in 2012. In the case of loans we may observe the drop in the share of financing in foreign currency: from 13.8% in 2011 to 9.9 in H1 2012. • In 2012, similarly to early years, leasing in PLN prevails in new production structure in the case of movable leasing. Its share decreased, though, from 84.0% in 2010 to 77.0% in H1 2011. The index of loan financing is constant: 89.1% in 2011 and 88.8% in 2010. • In the following quarters of 2010, 2011 and 2012 we can see the gradual increase of intrest in financing the purchase of movable fixed equiment with foreign currency leasing. In H1 2010 the share of such leasing amounted to 14.7%, in H2 2010 – 17.0% but in H1 2011 such share amounted to 13.0%, in H2 2011 – 24.3% and in 2012 – 25.9%. • The share of foreign currency in financing the investment purchase in H1 2012 approaches the record level of 32.3% which was obtained in Q4 2008. It is visible that entrepreneurs expose their credit exposure to currency risk. • In previous years real estate leasing was financed mainly with foreign currency. The share of PLN in financing the segment start growing in 2008. As a result, in 2011 56% of real estate leasing transactions were financed with PLN. In 2012 such share increased to 76.5% but low production noted in 2012 makes it impossible to assess the constancy of this tendency. Source: Polish Leasing Association
45 60% 50% leasing market [PLN billion] 19% 50% % of investment financed with leasing 40 34% 40% 17,0% 35 32,6 32,9 32,0 31,1 28% 17% 30% 30 27,3 15% 14% 15,2% 20% 25 23,0 15% 14,1% 21,8 10% 20 13,1% 16,3 19% 0% 13% 3% 14,2 15 12,4% 1% -10% 12,7% 11,8% 12,6% 10 -30% -20% 11% 5 10,5% -30% 9% 0 -40% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (P) (P) 350 20% Investment [PLN billion] 14,9% Investment dynamics YOY 300 15% 257 17,6% 240 250 219 217 216 8,5% 192 10% 6,5% 200 6,4% 155 9,6% 150 131 120 5% 4,5% 100 0% 50 -0,2% -1,2% 0 -5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (P) Leasing and Investment between 2004 and 2011 change YOY • The average annual increase on the leasing market in years 2004-2007 amounted to 32% and significantly overtook the dynamics of investment in economy amounting to 11%. As a result, the considerable increase of leasing share in financing was reported. • In 2008 the leasing market reacted to the approaching economic slowdown in advance and in May 2008 reported decrease of turnovers. The slump of leasing market took place in 2009. • Relatively low drops of investment in 2009 and 2010 resulted from the public infrastructural investments which were cofinanced with the EU funds. Realization of private investments started in H2 2010. • Development of leasing market observed from 2010 reflects on gradual increase of the leasing penetration index in invetment. Currently, it is similar to the average level of this index for Europe (12.6% in 2010). • Leasing market will probably not exceed in 2012 the level of financing noted in 2008 and 2009. The investment in economy is higher than before the slowdown. Source: Polish Leasing Association, Central Statistical Office
80 25% 70 25% total value of active portfolio value of the real estate leasing active portfolio change in relation to the previous period change in relation to the previous period 70 60 20% 20% 61,1 60,8 16,2% 52,4 52,4 56,6 60 56,5 55,9 55,3 48,4 54,9 48,0 47,7 47,8 47,3 50 53,4 15% 45,4 43,9 49,8 15% 9,1% 50 37,8 40 10% 9,4% 5,2% 40 10% 10,2% 30 5% 13,7% -1,4% 30 -0,9% 3,6% 5% 0,9% -3,9% 20 0% 20 0,5% -0,1% -2,8% -2,8% 0% 10 -5% 1,8% 10 -0,2% -0,5% 0 -10% 0 -5% 2007.12 2008.06 2008.12 2009.06 2009.12 2010.06 2010.12 2011.06 2010.12 2012.06 2008.06 2008.12 2009.06 2009.12 2010.06 2010.12 2011.06 2010.12 2012.06 100 100% 80 bln 90 90% 80 80% 70 70% 60 60% 50 50% 40 40% 30 30% Investment loans granted to companies by banks [mln PLN] 20 20% Deposits/loans for companies index 10 10% 0 0% Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 12 May 07 Sept 07 May 08 Sept 08 May 09 Sept 09 May 11 May 10 Sept 10 Sept 11 May 12 Investment Financing – Leasing vs Investment Credit • Total value of active portfolio at the end of June 2012 amounting to 60.77 bln PLN (52.39 bln PLN for movables and 8.39 bln PLN for real estate) is comparable to the value of balance of the investment credits granted to companies by banks (80.30 bln PLN). Leasing is the main, apart from credit, external source of financing investments working in economy. • The value of this portfolio increased within the last 12 months of 9.0% obtaining the rate comparable to the situation reported at the end of 2011. • Data provided by National Bank of Poland concerning money supply (of 30th June 2012) proves gradual slowdown of the dynamics in the case of banks credit action within investment. The last 12 months showed that the balance of investment credits increased in banks of 19.1% compared to 27.6% dynamics YOY reported on 30th June 2012. The present balance is higher than the level noted at the end of 2011 only of 1.2%. Source: Polish Leasing Association, National Bank of Poland
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association(PZWLP)Results after Q2 2012
PZWLP H1 2012 Results PZWLP 2011 – 17 member companies Results provided by 16 companies PZWLP – in total after H1 2012– 100.450 vehicles leased, including: FSL 80.807 (FSL – Full Service Leasing) LS 10.474 (LS – Leasing Service) FM 9.160 (FM – Fleet Management) Source: PZWLP
PZWLP Q2 2012 Results • More vehicles in PZWLP fleets within a year • Increase of 14% (12.357vehicles) in relation to Q2 2011 • Including 80% of FSL and 20% of LS and FM • FSL – within a year more of 8.335 vehicles 100.450 Dynamics of PZWLP fleet growth between 2011 and 2012 (total number of FSL, LS and FM vehiclesin thousands) 95.150 93.216 88.093 Source: PZWLP
Leaders of Fleet Industry(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP) • Leaders of long-term rental: • 1. Masterlease 20.231 (including FM 215) • 2. LeasePlan Fleet Management18.823 (including FM 3.508) • 3. Arval Service Lease 16.152 (including FM 325) • 4. Alphabet Polska 10.590 (including FM 110) • 5. Carefleet 8.412 (including FM 595) • FSL Leaders • 1. Arval Service Lease 15.700 • 2. LeasePlan Fleet Management 15.285 • 3. Masterlease 13.399 • 4. Alphabet Polska 8.897 • 5. Carefleet 7.817 Source: PZWLP
Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLPLeaders of Fleet MarketTotal Numerical Representation by Product Based on the results of 17 companies • Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – in total after Q2 2012: 120.681 vehicles • Growth of 12.33% in relation to Q2 2011 (YOY) Source: PZWLP
change change YOY change YOY change YOY change YOY 2011 2012 (P) 2012/2011 I Q 2012 II Q 2012 III Q 2012 IV Q 2012 Vehicles 16 874 17 582 4,2% 11,3% 0,8% 0,4% 5,1% Passenger Delivery Cars 9 565 9 734 1,8% 18,8% -5,6% -5,0% 2,6% Trucks 6 681 6 998 4,8% 1,1% 5,2% 6,0% 6,1% Other vehicles 629 849 35,0% 14,5% 50,9% 29,5% 53,0% Machines 10 797 11 425 5,8% 7,3% 4,5% 2,1% 9,3% IT 605 722 19,5% 26,6% 9,5% 18,4% 23,0% Planes, ships, railway 925 932 0,7% 62,7% -18,6% -3,8% 11,0% Other movables 313 353 12,8% 48,4% -8,5% 5,0% 15,1% Movables – total number 29 513 31 013 5,1% 11,3% 1,4% 1,3% 7,3% Real Estate 1 629 963 -40,9% -57,2% 27,0% -16,0% -55,8% Leasing altogether 31 142 31 976 2,7% 6,3% 1,9% 0,7% 2,4% Leasing Industry Forecast (1) Total number of assets financed by leasing companies • Movables leasing market shall maintain the positive dynamics of development in 2012, however, it will be lower than at the beginning of the year. • Trucks and machines remain the main drive of growth in 2012. Nevertheless, we do not expect any improvement in real estate sector, where the value of the financed assets by the end of the year may stay at the level not exceeding 300 mln PLN quarterly. • Low chance for comeback of „cargo partition” in 2013 will not cause significant slowdown of demand for passenger cars in 2012. • The growth of the market in 2012 shall stay slightly below the expected level of investment growth in domestic economy, mainly due to worse condition of micro and small companies and greater influence of negtive information concerning the recession in Euro zone on these companies. • The latest macroeconomic data (June dynamics of the industrial production at the level of +2.6% YOY, PMI readout for June equal to 48.0 points or stagnation on labour market) proves gradual economic slowdown. It is not sudden enough to stop the investing activity of companies ( investments of medium and big companies were growing of 12.4% YOY in Q1 2012 and the investment of whole economy – of 6.7% YOY). Taking into consideration high exploitation of production capacity, we may expect the growth of investment in 2012 at the level of 4-5%. • The expected growth of private investment will be financed mainly with loans. Such situation will be favoured by high absorption of EU funds and greater interest of leasing companies in this product, which will reflect on slight increase of the loan share in investment financing. Source: Polish Leasing Association
change change YOY change YOY change YOY change YOY 2011 2012 (P) 2012/2011 I Q 2012 II Q 2012 III Q 2012 IV Q 2012 Vehicles 16 406 17 226 5,0% 11,7% 2,3% 0,1% 6,6% Passenger Delivery Cars 9 315 9 684 4,0% 19,0% -0,9% -3,8% 4,5% Trucks 6 515 6 721 3,2% -1,7% 2,6% 3,2% 7,2% Other vehicles 576 821 42,4% 51,5% 40,6% 29,5% 53,8% Machines 8 228 7 795 -5,3% -2,7% -10,1% -7,4% -0,5% IT 588 710 20,7% 27,9% 9,3% 20,0% 25,0% Planes, ships, railway 917 917 0,0% 64,1% -19,0% -5,0% 10,0% Other movables 312 351 12,5% 46,3% -8,5% 5,0% 15,0% Movables – total number 26 450 26 998 2,1% 8,6% -2,6% -1,9% 5,1% Real Estate 1 254 959 -23,5% -42,1% 52,8% 15,0% -45,0% Leasing altogether 27 704 27 957 0,9% 5,7% -1,6% -1,4% 1,5% Loan Loan Loan Loan change 2011 2012 (P) share Q1 share Q2 share Q3 share Q4 2012/2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 Vehicles 469 356 -24,0% 1,9% 2,1% 1,9% 2,1% Passenger Delivery Cars 250 50 -79,9% 0,6% 0,4% 0,5% 0,5% Trucks 166 278 67,3% 4,1% 3,7% 3,8% 4,2% Other vehicles 53 28 -46,2% 1,0% 7,3% 1,3% 1,3% Machines 2 569 3 629 41,3% 27,1% 32,1% 33,3% 33,6% IT 17 13 -24,1% 0,9% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% Planes, ahips, railway 8 15 78,7% 1,6% 1,4% 1,5% 2,0% Other movables 1 2 155,9% 1,5% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Movables – totalnumber 3 063 4 015 31,1% 10,9% 13,2% 13,6% 13,8% Real Estate 375 4 -98,8% 2,1% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Leasing altogether 3 438 4 020 16,9% 10,6% 12,9% 13,2% 13,3% Leasing Industry Forecast (2) Assets financed with leasing Assets financed with loan Source: Polish Leasing Association
Związek Polskiego Leasingu (Polish Leasing Association ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawa tel.: (22) 542 41 36 fax: (22) 542 41 37 e-mail: zpl@leasing.org.pl www.leasing.org.pl