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Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa

Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa. David Backer Ken Kollman University of Michigan presented at Democracy Seminar Series Electoral Institute of Southern Africa January 21, 2003. Agenda. Project Origins Aims Sources Data Missing Data Measures

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Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa

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  1. Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa David Backer Ken Kollman University of Michigan presented at Democracy Seminar Series Electoral Institute of Southern Africa January 21, 2003

  2. Agenda • Project Origins • Aims • Sources • Data • Missing Data • Measures • Elections in Africa • Comparative Analysis • Discussion • Looking Ahead

  3. Project Origins • Chhibber & Kollman (APSA 1998) • Party aggregation, i.e., relationship between local and national party system • Dependent variable: effective number of political parties • Principal explanatory factor: distribution of fiscal resources across levels of government • Data from U.S. and India • Chhibber & Kollman (forthcoming 2003) • Addition of data from U.K. and Canada

  4. Aims • Explore applications of Kollman & Chhibber to African cases • Gather details on electoral systems and party systems in Africa • Build archive of African electoral data • Assess impact of political environment on electoral outcomes, with reference to Africa

  5. Sources • Books • Elections in Africa (Nohlen, Krennerich & Thibaut 1999) • Democracy and Political Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (Wiseman 1990) • Politics of Opposition in Contemporary Africa (Olukoshi 1998) • Electoral Territoriality in Southern Africa (Rule 2000) • Voting for Democracy (Daniel, Southall & Szeftel 1999) • Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa (Reynolds 1999) • Rise and Fall of Nigeria’s Second Republic (Falola & Ihonvbere 1985) • African Democracies and African Politics (Salih 2001)

  6. Sources • Official Sources • Electoral Commissions • Government Websites • On-Line Resources • Adam Carr’s Election Archives • Electionworld.org • Electionguide.org • Electionresources.org • Democraf.com • IPU • IFES • Organizations • EISA • Personal Collections • Judy Geist (Kenya)

  7. Data • National • 47 countries • 299 elections • Seat allocations, by party • Votes, by party (where possible) • Turnout (where possible) • District-Level • 9 countries • 30 elections • 3,415 contests • Votes by candidate (with party affiliation) • Turnout (where possible)

  8. District-Level Data Botswana 1969, 1974, 1979 1984, 1989, 1994 1999 Burkina Faso 1997 The Gambia 1997 Kenya 1963, 1969, 1974, 1979 1983, 1988, 1992 1997, 2002 Lesotho 1993 1998 2002 Ghana 1996 2000 Zimbabwe 1990 1995 2000 Zambia 1991 1996 2001 Malawi 1999

  9. Missing Data • National • Seats: 0 countries, 0 elections • Votes: 24 countries, 41 elections • District-Level (Single-Member) • 20 countries • 60 elections • 9,226 contests • District-Level (Other Electoral Systems) • 13 countries • 56 elections • ???? contests

  10. Missing District-Level Data Burundi1965 Central African Republic1993, 1998 Comoros1972, 1992, 1993, 1996 Congo1992, 1993, 2002 Ethiopia1995, 2000 Gabon1990, 1996, 2001 Gambia1966, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992 Ghana1956, 1969, 1979 Lesotho1965, 1970 Malawi1994 Mali2002 Nigeria1959, 1964, 1979, 1983, 1992, 1999 Sierra Leone1962, 1967, 1973, 1977 Sudan1953, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1986, 1996, 2000 Swaziland1993, 1998 Tanzania1995, 2000 Togo1958, 1994, 1999, 2002 Uganda1962, 1980, 1996, 2001 Zambia1964, 1968 Zimbabwe1985

  11. Measures • Vote and seat shares • Effective number of political parties j = jth district i = ith party d = number of districts n = number of parties receiving votes • SF ratio: 3rd place votes vs. 2nd place votes National District District Average

  12. Effective Number of Political Parties

  13. Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Choice of Electoral System - 47 Countries 22 Single-Member 20 PR 8 Single- and Multi-Member 5 Mixed 21 Multi-Member Note: 22 countries have changed their electoral system; 7 have employed three systems.

  14. Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Opportunities for Competition - 47 Countries 299 Elections 183 Multi-Party 7 No Parties 109 One-Party

  15. Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Multi-Party Elections by System - 47 Countries 183 Multi-Party Elections 81 Single-Member 12 PR 25 Single- and Multi-Member 14 Mixed 51 Multi-Member

  16. Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- One-Party Elections by System - 32 Countries 109 One-Party Elections 29 Single-Member 44 PR 12 Single- and Multi-Member 3 Mixed 21 Multi-Member

  17. Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Overview of Multi-Party Contests -

  18. Impact of Political Environment on Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

  19. Impact of Political Environment on Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Multi-Party Elections -

  20. Elections and the Political Environmentin Sub-Saharan Africa Note: Averages of Freedom House scores, which range from 1 (best) to 7 (worst).

  21. Single-Member District Elections inSub-Saharan Africa- Competitiveness -

  22. Single-Member District Elections inSub-Saharan Africa- Party Systems -

  23. Single-Member District Elections inSub-Saharan Africa- Third Party Strength -

  24. Single-Member District Elections inSub-Saharan Africa- Winners & the Local Party System -

  25. Single-Member District Elections inSub-Saharan Africa- Third Parties & the Local Party System -

  26. Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems Around the World -

  27. Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems Around the World -

  28. Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems in Africa -

  29. Discussion • Conventional image of African elections • ban on opposition parties • boycotts • suppression of political activity • single-party dominance • attenuated competition • Underappreciated phenomena • heterogeneity of outcomes • domination + fragmentation within local party systems

  30. Discussion • Winner-take-all electoral systems (i.e., single-member districts) not necessarily less favorable to competition • highest share of votes for opposition parties • similar share of seats for opposition parties, despite premium to top party • Inverse-U relationship between political environment and national party system • Patterns of electoral results in Africa not so different from those in established democracies, except with respect to the variability of outcomes

  31. Looking Ahead • Data • compilation of missing historical results • updating with latest results on an ongoing basis • standardize reporting by individual countries • timely • detailed • complete • accessible • user-friendly format • Utilization Issues • effective dissemination  widely available public resource • relevance to policy-making and research

  32. Looking Ahead • Audiences • government officials • international policy-makers • academics • think tanks • NGOs • Research Issues • influence of electoral systems on political competition • nature and evolution of party systems • impact of political environment on electoral outcomes • comparative analysis • within Africa • Africa vs. developing democracies • Africa vs. established democracies

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