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Polls, Surveys and Statistics

Polls, Surveys and Statistics. Reading, Reporting and Editing Numbers in Journalism. “There are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics.” - Benjamin Disraeli. Polls, Surveys and Statistics. What is the purpose? When do we use them? Where do we get the information?

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Polls, Surveys and Statistics

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  1. Polls, Surveys and Statistics Reading, Reporting and Editing Numbers in Journalism

  2. “There are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics.” - Benjamin Disraeli

  3. Polls, Surveys and Statistics • What is the purpose? • When do we use them? • Where do we get the information? • How do we use them? • Why do we use them? • Are they important in agricultural news coverage? Examples…

  4. Surveys and Polls • Why are surveys used? • to gather information and opinions on the issues of the day. • How are surveys used? • Prediction, change, proof • Examples… • What types of surveys do the media use? • Polls, sampling of readers, etc.

  5. Editing Stories with Numbers • Sources • Who are the participants? • Who sponsored the survey? • Know whom you are dealing with. • Sample • How many people were questioned? • Whom do they represent?

  6. Editing Stories with Numbers • Sample • Systematic or stratified sample • Increases reliability • Divide respondents into specific groups • Age • Gender • Education • Income • Marital status • Party affiliation • Location • Ethnicity

  7. Editing Stories with Numbers • Margin of Error • Opinion surveys • Plus or minus percentage points • Example – candidate is leading the polls 52 percent to 48 percent with a margin of error of +/- 4 points. What can we report? • Scientific study • Confidence level • What is the probability that the results are due to chance? • .95 confidence level, So what?

  8. Be Skeptical • How do you know? • Have you done a study? • Compared to what? • Other studies • Consistent results

  9. Checking the Numbers • Calculate percentages 15/60 * 100 • One out of: 60/15 = 1 out of 4 • More than vs as much • $10,000 building purchased for five times more than it is worth, what price did you pay? • $10,000 building purchased for five times as much as it is worth, what price did you pay?

  10. Checking the Numbers • Increase or decrease • Increased to 6 percent from 1 percent • Increased from 1 percent to 6 percent • Decreased to 1 percent from 6 percent • Decreased from 6 percent to 1 percent • More than or Less than • Be aware of rounding • Percent Change increase to 6 – from 4 = 2 2/4 = .5 *100 = 50 percent increase

  11. Checking the Numbers • Percentages should equal 100. • Round to a single decimal • Percent increase vs. Percentage points • Government spending increases to 20 percent of the budget from 10 percent, that is a 10 percentage point increase or 100 percent increase. 20-10 = 10/10 = 1*100 = 100 percent

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