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U.S. National Security

U.S. National Security. National Security As Decision Making. Levels of Analysis. Decision Making Theories. Rational Choice Problems with Rational Choice. Rational Choice. Rational Choice:

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U.S. National Security

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  1. U.S. National Security National Security As Decision Making

  2. Levels of Analysis

  3. Decision Making Theories • Rational Choice • Problems with Rational Choice

  4. Rational Choice • Rational Choice: • People make decisions by weighing the costs and benefits (along with their probability of occurring) of each option. • An individual will choose whichever option has the highest expected utility. • E(u)=Benefits(probability) -Costs(probability)

  5. Rational Choice • Backbone of the social sciences, including political science and economics • Basis of game theory • More recently - theorists and researchers beginning to explore the problems • Some have adapted old models • Others have created new decision making theories

  6. Problems with Rational Choice • Problems external to the decision maker • Problems internal to the decision maker • (Not perfectly separated categories)

  7. External Problems of RC • Previous interactions / history / reputation -can lead to threat misperceptions • Domestic politics - can constrain options • Public opinion • Public salience • Party politics • Bureaucratic politics

  8. External Problems of RC (cont’d.) • Principal-agent problem - the principal can’t ensure that the agent will carry out the decision • Information problems • Incomplete information • Misinformation • Information screens/filters

  9. Internal Problems of RC • Prospect theory • Experimental economic studies conducted since the 1970s show that… • People are less likely to make rational decisions after suffering losses. • Think: gambling • After a loss, an individual is more risk-acceptant - more likely to make risky decisions.

  10. Internal Problems of RC (cont’d.) • Analogical reasoning • E.g., making a decision about Rwanda b/c of Somalia • Personality theories • Neuroscience findings about human behavior and emotion • In-group/out-group dynamics • Influence of trust • Influence of threat (including crises) and fear • Influence of reputation / status

  11. What are the main points of the article “Obama’s Way”? If the article had a slogan or tagline, what would it be? What concepts of decision making do your selections show? Small Groups

  12. Rational choice / goals, benefits, costs Reputation / status Public opinion Public salience Party politics Bureaucratic politics Principle-agent problem Incomplete info. Misinformation Information screens Prospect theory / risk-acceptant / risk-averse Analogical reasoning Personality Neuroscience, emotion In-group / out-group Threat / fear / crises Terms

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