1 / 28

ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation ( APAEC 2010-2015 )

ASEAN People Forum Thailand’s Perspectives on Energy Industry and Investment in ASEAN 19 October 2009 Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen Palang Thai www.palangthai.org. ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation ( APAEC 2010-2015 ). *ACE = ASEAN Center for Energy.

zena
Download Presentation

ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation ( APAEC 2010-2015 )

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ASEAN People ForumThailand’s Perspectives on Energy Industry and Investment in ASEAN19 October 2009Chuenchom Sangarasri GreacenPalang Thaiwww.palangthai.org

  2. ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC 2010-2015) *ACE = ASEAN Center for Energy

  3. Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in the GMS • Benefits : • Exchange energy e.g. during different peak periods • Reduce shared reserve margin • Maximize efficient utilization of resources in the GMS

  4. Reality of GMS Power Grid:expensive, risky investment • Based on unrealistically cheap hydropower costs • NT2 power at 1.4 US cents/kWh • Costs excluded in analysis: • Control center • Water usage • Regulator & reliability coordination • Transitional costs • Increased vulnerability: events in Laos/Cambodia determine reliability of Thai Grid *Cost savings of extended power cooperation scenarios over base case Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.

  5. Projects under construction: Thailand – Lao PDR Roi Et – Nam Theun 2 Udon Tani – Nabong Lao PDR – Vietnam Lao PDR – Cambodia Projects under design or study 1) Sarawak – Peninsular Malaysia 2) Peninsular Malaysia – Sumatra 3) Batam - Bintan - Singapore 4) Sarawak - West Kalimantan 5) Philippines - Sabah 6) Sarawak - Sabah - Brunei 7) Thailand - Myanmar 8) East Kalimantan - Sabah ASEAN Power Grid Projects Source: APAEC 2010-2015

  6. Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline Projects Source: APAEC 2010-2015

  7. Thailand’s perspectives

  8. Projects within Thailand implemented with government’s force Example of the Thai-Malaysian Gas Pipeline

  9. Nam Theun 2 (1000 MW) Mainly to serve Thailand 6,200 people in Laos resettled Dam will dry Nam Theun River and swell Xe Bung Fai River Endangered species, elephant habitat to be flooded When resistance is tough at home, ASEAN “Grid” allows cross-border exports of environmental, social and HR problems of securing energy

  10. ASEAN framework is used to explore and expand business opportunities for Thai energy corporations • Power projects by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)’s subsidiaries • RATCH • EGCO • EGAT International • Activities in Laos, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia • Gas/petroleum projects by • PTT (partially privatized gas/petroleum utility) • PTTEP and its various subsidiaries • Activities in Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines EGAT PTT

  11. Power and gas utilities are main drivers EGAT PTT Support by Government Energy plan and policy decisions (at national or ASEAN levels) dominated by business interests Source: APAEC 2010-2015

  12. Conflict of interest : policyv business Board of directors Permanent secretary of ministry of energy Chairman of PTT Chairman of EGAT Board member of PTT chemical Chairman of Rayong refinery Director general,Energy fuel Dep. permanent secretary Board member of Thai oil Board member of RATCH Dep. permanent secretary Board member of PTTEP Dep. permanent secretary Director general of energy business Board member of PTT Director general of Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency energy Board member of RATCH Director of Energy Policy and Planning official Board member of PTTEP Senior official of ministry of energy Board member of Aromatics PLC Senior official of ministry of energy Board member of Bang chak Board member of RATCH Board member of Ratchaburi generation company Senior official of ministry of energy

  13. Energy policy and its impacts on share prices of energy companies in the stock market • The coup-installed government announced its policy on energy investment opportunities on 3 Oct 2006 • Energy policy, PDP approval and IPP bidding resulted in significant windfall benefits for selected companies • 1 year later, the share prices of companies benefiting from the PDP jumped 66% (other companies had a 8.7% rise)

  14. 30,305 28,153 Forecast_Mar07 (Base case) 22,586 22,568 Source : EGAT More investments NOT equal to greater benefits for Thais Generation capacity in excess of demand (2007-2008) Under centralized monopoly structure Excess gas/ pipeline capacity/ generation capacity economic waste + excess burden for consumers

  15. Power Demand: Projections vs. Actual1992 – 2009Repeated number errors with real consequences for affected ecology, communities andconsumers MW

  16. Incentive structure for utilities:the more expansion, the more profits • Financial criteria for utilities link profits to investments • Thailand uses outdated return-based regulation • WB’s promoted financial criteria such as self financing ratio (SFR) also have similar effects • ROIC (Return on Invested Capital means: the more you invest, the more profits 4.8% Result: Demand forecast have systemic bias toward over-projections Too many expensive power projects get built

  17. Cycle of over-investment Deterministic planning based on demand forecast leads to over-investment in capital-intensive power projects Power demand (over-)projections 1 2 Utilities’ Profits 3 Tariff structure that allows pass-through of unnecessary investments

  18. Energy security (or handsome profits) at the expense of ???

  19. Electricity production and consumption (GWh) Siam Paragon 1700 families relocated 123 Loss of livelihood for >6200 families MBK 81 Loss of 116 fish species (44%) Central World Mae Hong Song Fishery yield down 80% 75 65 Impacts of Pak Mun Dam alone Source: MEA, EGAT, Searin, Graphic: Green World Foundation Pak Mun Dams Malls Province

  20. การกระจายของจำนวนผู้ใช้ไฟและปริมาณการใช้ไฟฟ้าDistribution of number of power users & energy consumed Agricultural pumping Government Specific businesses Large industrial/commercial) Small industrial/commercial Small industrial/commercial Large houses (>150 kWh/mo) Small houses (<150 kWh/mo) Number of customers Electricity consumption ที่มา : รายงานการปรับโครงสร้างอัตราค่าไฟฟ้า (มติ ค.ร.ม. วันที่ 3 ตุลาคม 2543)

  21. "Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed." - Gandhi

  22. In conclusion • ASEAN = expanded ground ?? • to which Thailand can export its envi, social & human rights problems from securing energy? • from which Thailand’s centralized energy corporations can grow and profit? • In which Thailand’s cycle of over-investment and excess consumer burden is aggravated? • ASEAN energy decisions dominated by utilities and senior officials with conflict of interests

  23. What to do? • Need to empower the grassroots • Need to reform the centralized monopoly structure and liberate decentralized solutions (local planning & control, energy efficiency and conservation, small-scale renewable energy) • Need to democratize national governments as much as ASEAN (Can we democratize ASEAN without democratizing our own governments?) MEDITATE, CONNECT, EMPHATIZE, BE GENTLER, BE KINDER

More Related