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Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde , Germany

Modelling the turbulent Wadden Sea: What’s needed most . Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde , Germany Cooperation: Thomas Badewien 1 , Johannes Becherer 2 , Götz Flöser 3 , Ulf Gräwe 2 , Volker Mohrholz 2 ,

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Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde , Germany

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  1. Modelling the turbulent Wadden Sea: What’s needed most Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany Cooperation: Thomas Badewien1, Johannes Becherer2, Götz Flöser3, Ulf Gräwe2, Volker Mohrholz2, Rolf Riethmüller3, Joanna Staneva3, Lars Umlauf2 1. University Oldenburg, Germany 2. Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany 3. Helmholtz CenterGeesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research, Germany

  2. The WaddenSeacirculation in a nutshell WarmingPrecipitation Land Ocean Compareto: Downwardsurfacebuoyancyflux Seabed Weaktidalmixing: verticallystratified River? Thermohalineestuarinecirculation Strong tidalmixing: horizontallystratified

  3. Climatology: Salinitydifference HW-NW Burchard et al. (JPO 2008)

  4. Climatology: Temperaturedifference HW-LW Burchard et al. (JPO 2008)

  5. Climatology: Densitydifference HW-LW Burchard et al. (JPO 2008)

  6. Longitudinal densitygradients & tidaloscillationsleadto: e.g., tidalstraining 75% level 75% level MacCready & Geyer (2010) after Jay & Musiak (1994)

  7. Does this happen in nature?

  8. 75% level flood ebb Becherer et al. (in prep.)

  9. Thermohaline estuarine circulation (observed) Becherer et al. (in prep.)

  10. Withdensitydifferences Modelling theimpact ofdensitygradients on SPM transport Relative SPM content V / km3 Romo (DK) Withoutdensitydifferences Relative SPM content V / km3 Sylt (D) Burchard et al. (JPO 2008)

  11. Seasonalityoftidalforcing Howdoesthisaffect sedimenttransport due totidalasymmetries (M4)? Gräwe et al. (in prep.) Müller et al. (in prep.)

  12. Sealevelrise & tidal flat growth (DanishWaddenSea) ? Data andgraphicsfrom Morten Pejrup, Copenhagen University

  13. WaddenSea model Model systembased on GETM: NA: 5.4 km X 5.4 km (2D) NSBS: 1.8 km X 1.8 km (3D) SNS: 600 m X 600 m (3D) WaddenSea: 200 m X 200 m (3D) PACE project (NWO-BMBF): „The futureoftheWaddenSea sedimentfluxes: Still keepingpace withsealevelrise?“ (2011-2014) Gräwe et al., in prep.

  14. Tides in theWaddenSea (asseen in 200 m resolution model) Gräwe et al., in prep.

  15. WaddenSea model: M4tidalelevations (phaseandamplitude) asvalidationdata. Gräwe et al., in prep.

  16. Seasurfacesalinityin theWaddenSea (asseen in 200 m resolution model) Personal communication Matias Duran Matute (NIOZ)

  17. MOdular System for Shelf andCoasts (MOSSCo) atmospheric physics atmosphericchemistry waves water physics riverdischarge cohesivesediments adaptive ecosystem& elementcycles oceanphysics oceanBGC benthic biogeochemistry benthic geoecology

  18. Major messages The Wadden Sea is as complex as other marine systems. An Earth system modelling approach is needed to understand its sensitivity to climate change and direct human intervention. Components of (multi-scale) Wadden Sea Earth system model: • 3D baroclinic hydrodynamics • Sediment (sand & mud) transport model • Morphodynamic module • Benthic & pelagic biogeochemical modules • Atmospheric module • Wave module • Hydrological module • etc ... ... all interactively linked

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