The Lone Wolf Threat in Global neo- Jihadi Terrorism

1. The Lone Wolf Threat in Global neo-Jihadi Terrorism Marc Sageman, M.D., Ph.D. sageman@post.harvard.edu

2. What is the threat? • Global neo-Jihadi Terrorism in the West • Use of violence by non-state collective actors against non-combatants in the West in pursuit of a global neo-jihad • What is the trend in the West since 9/11 (duplicated x 3) • In the name of global neo-Jihad • Acts in furtherance • No sting operations • No loners with mental disorders and no link to global neo-Jihad • 63 Plots in the West

3. Global neo-Jihadi Terrorist Plots in the West since 9/11

4. AQ Plots in the West

5. AQ Plots in the West • 16 AQ plots in the West since 9/11 • Only 1 successful (7/7/05 London bombings) • 13 dependent on homegrown wannabes linking up with AQ in the Af/Pak border • Only 3 were outside infiltration • AQ is being decimated by drone campaign & the death of UBL

6. AQ Affiliates Plots in the West

7. Al Qaeda Affiliates’ Plots in the West • 8 AQ affiliates’ plots • Most were Western wannabes linking up with terrorist organizations abroad • Only 3 outside infiltration • ↑ collaboration between Pakistani groups & AQ

8. GnJT Homegrown Plots in the West

9. AQ Inspired Plots in the West • 39 plots: 62% of all plots • 6 successes: • Madrid ’04; Bouyeri ’04; Maj Hasan ’09; Chowdhry ’10; Abdulwahab ’10; Uka ’11 (2 bombs, 3 guns, 1 knife: amateurs) • In past 3 years • Most recent mostly L.W. or duos (>3/4 of cases in past 3 years) • Threat to West is mostly homegrown, scattered, leaderless • Only 10 % were pure infiltration, and 37% had trained abroad

10. The turn to political violence • Political violence emerges out of a specific context • 2-STEP PROCESS 1. Involvement in political protest community (still legal) 2. Turn to violence (illegal: extremist violence) • SPECIFICITY: • Focus on transition from 1 to 2, by comparing violent bunches of guys with controls in the political protest community

11. Discursive Political Protest Community • Politically active • Demonstrations, internet forums, social media • Anchored by specific symbols & rituals • Jihadi cool youth counter-culture life style • Rejects both Western society AND parental traditions • Political protest social movement: social blob • Vague, diffuse, porous & fuzzy boundaries • Internally very fluid • No central command & control

12. Influence of the Internet • Survivability: built in redundancy • Promiscuous simultaneous participation in several for a • Greater protection: semi anonymity • Massive migration to the Internet 8 years ago • Egalitarian structure • Undermines hierarchy, initiative to followers • Self selection of active participants • Shift to social media 3 years ago (Facebook, YouTube) • Not passive victims “vulnerable, at risk, or brainwashed…” • Active: trying to make sense of their world, constructing meaning from available models, & making choices accordingly • Transforms the threat: ↑ teenagers, women & geeks

13. 2nd Step: Turn to political violence • Moral Outrage: Emotional driver for violence • Disillusionmentwith effectiveness of blob • Too involved to simply abandon political activism • Criticism of blob leaders or imams (“talk, talk, talk…”), leave mosque • Rejection of blob & non-violent tactics: “enough is enough” • Personal duty to protect ummah: Fard ‘Ayn

14. Emergence of Lone Wolves • Inclusion criteria of study underestimate # of lone wolves • Trend is ↑ # of lone wolves  state of leaderless jihad • Effect of Internet chat-rooms or social media • Forum for individual w/ extreme views in hostile environment • Seek out similar others online with little risk via social media • Revenge of the nerds: shy individuals drop inhibition that prevent their participation in F2F communication  very active on Internet • Positive feedback  validates one’s beliefs  ↑ important part of one’s life  confident & assertive of online collective ID • Hardens one’s beliefs: illusion of numbers • ↑willing to act out: shy online participant  offline lone wolf

15. Gradual increase in suspicious activities • ↑ interest in legitimacy of killing • ↑ interest in terrorist activities (may be illegal) • Downloading information for skill acquisition • Discussing terrorist activities online, practicing, casing targets • Financing operations: personal $/ fraudulent loans (not expensive) • Getting means of destruction (may be illegal)

16. Turn To Violence: 2 Step Process Political Protest Community “Blob: A loose amorphous collection of people who act without a central command” 16

17. Turn to political to violence • Violence comes at the tail end of political social movement • ↓ blob  ↑ people frustrated w/ it & turning to violence • Disorganized, scattered: lone wolves • Not linear path: 2 step process • Fits & starts; zigzag patterns of commitments according to local & foreign historical contingencies • Not deterministic: most give up even at advanced stage • Very rare events: • Hostile environment & lack of availability • Dependent on chance connections & perseverance of active core in pursuit of conspiracy despite ubiquity of difficulties & obstacles