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111005 ICFA seminar @CERN. On-going & Near Future for q 13. Takashi Kobayashi KEK. Contents. Introduction T2K results and near future prospect MINOS results Global fit Near future prospect in the world Implication of large q 13 on future Summary. n e. n m. n t.
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111005 ICFA seminar @CERN On-going & Near Future for q13 Takashi Kobayashi KEK
Contents • Introduction • T2K results and near future prospect • MINOS results • Global fit • Near future prospect in the world • Implication of large q13 on future • Summary
ne nm nt 3 flavor mixing of neutrinos Flavor eigenstates Mass eigenstates m1 m2 m3 Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata Matrix (CKM matrix in lepton sector) Atm/Acc Acc/Reactor Sol/Reactor 6 independent parameters govern oscillation q12, q23, q13, d Dm122, Dm232, Dm132 Dmij=mi2-mj2 3
Present knowledge (before June, 2011) ne?? Sol/Reactor n3 Atm/Acc n2 OR n1 dunkown Which?? Big diff from KM matrix
Why q13 so important?nmne appearance and CPV CPV Sol term CPV effect Unknown! (sinq12~0.5, sinq23~0.7, sinq13<0.2) The size of q13 decides future direction! 5
Brief history and present situation • In 1998, evidence of nm nx (disappearance) discovered SK in atmn observation • In 1999, as a next critical step toward CPV search, importance of nmne appearance search pointed out (K.Nishikawa&Y.Totsuka) • In 2001, LoI of T2K • After 10yrs of hard work worldwide for various experiments to discover non-zero q13, now we are getting into “harvest” season • Final conclusion on q13 will come very soon (hopefully)
Searches for non-zero q13 By using reactor neutrino • :<E> ~ a few MeV edisappearance • P(ee) = 1- sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + O(m221/m231) • Almost pure measurement of q13. • Small deficit signal systematics dominated By using accelerator neutrino • nm:<E> ~ O(GeV) neappearance • P(me) = sin2q23・sin2213・sin2(1.27m231L/E) + many terms(incl. d) • Appearance measurement of q13. • Statistics limited T2K (2009~), NOvA (2014~) Double Chooz(2011~), RENO(2011~), Daya Bay(2012~) 7
Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment • Intense off-axis (2.5deg) nm beam from J-PARC MR tuned at osc. max. • Reached 145kW (~0.9x1014ppt) • Data taking Jan. 2010 ~ Mar.11, 2011 • All data (1.43e20POT) analyzed 1.43e20pot accumulated (Jan2010~Mar2011) 8
PRL 107, 041801 (2011) T2K analysis results One of most critical selection criterion validated by Atm-nelike data &Atm-ndata+MC hybrid control sample • All data analysed • Event selection • Signal Efficiency = 66% • Background Rejection: • 77% for beam νe • 99% for NC • 6 candidate events remain • 1.5±0.3 BG expected • Probability to observe >=6 evts w/ sin22q13=0: 0.7% • 2.5 s excess observed
PRL 107, 041801 (2011) T2K allowed regions Chooz 90%CL upper bound @dCP=0
T2K&J-PARC status and plan • J-PARC has not been operated since Mar. 11, 2011 • Intensive recovery works are on-going • We will resume J-PARC operation in Dec. 2011 • First, LINAC will start operation on Dec. 12, 2011 • We plan to have >2 “cycle”(~month) beam for users within JFY2011 (by the end of Mar,2012) • In FY2012 (Apr.2012-Mar.2013) J-PARC plan to operate fully (~9month) (budget requested) • LINAC energy recovery from 181MeV to 400MeV originally scheduled in 2012 was delayed to start July 2013 • User’s needs to take longer beam after long shutdown by the earthquake • Delay of preparation caused by earthquake
Prospect of beam power • Highest priority is to establish non-zero q13 and precise measurement of q13 as soon as possible • T2K is still very much statistically limited (only 2% of approved POT has been taken) • Accelerator power improvement is CRITICAL (At present 145kW) • Short term • Replacement of inj. Kicker before next beam • Addition of RF (planned) for higher rep&ppb • Higher capacity for beam loss (collimator) • Tuning of present MR power supply for higher rep rate (3.042.6 more) • High power beam study • Longer term (few yrs) toward design intensity and beyond • R&D of high gradient RF core • R&D of high rep rate MR power supply (~1Hz or more)
T2K sensitivities and milestones • We have : 0.07[MWx107s] = 0.143e21 pot We aim to have • By Summer 2013: ~0.5[MWx107s] ~ 1e21pot • Conclude non-zero q13 • >5sigma for present T2K central value • Within a few yrs : ~ 1[MWx107s] ~ 2e21pot • > 3sigma for sin22q13 > 0.04 • Approved goal : 3.75[MWx107s] ~ 8e21pot • > 3sigma for sin22q13 >~ 0.02
MINOS (1st gen. exp.) FNAL 120GeV Main Injector Soudan mine (735km) Horn-focused wide band nm beam (magnetized)Iron-scintillator sampling calorimeter 5,400tons @ far, 980tons @ near Taking data >6yrs 8.2e20pot data w/ neutrino run is used for ne appearance search Far detector
Exclude q13=0 at more than 3s level Best fit : sin2q13=0.021 sin22q13 = 0.084 Most urgent & important task: EXPERIMENTALLY DEFINITELY conclude A global fitting G.L.Fogli, et.al, arXiv:1106.6028v1 [hep-ph]
Near future prospects in the world • 1st gen LBL experiment • OPERA • Expected (6.6E19POT) • Beam ne: 48.5 • NC : 5.2 • Signal : 5.2 (sin22q13=0.1) • (No kinematical cut) • Results expected in 2012 • q13 optimized experiments • Reactor experiments • NOvA
16.1GW reactor & 2x16ton detectors (1.4km) Started data taking with both near & far detectors from Aug. 1, 2011. First results on sin2(2q13) ~0.5 are expected to be available within a half year. sin2(2q13) > 0.02 at 90% within ~3yrs RENO experiment FD ND T2K center Fogli Global fit center Co
Double Chooz • 8.2GW reactor & 2x8ton detector (1.05km) • Far detector completed, started data taking since Apr. 13, 2011, >120dys w/ 75% phys data live • Data taking w/ near det expected from early 2013 • Sin22q13 sensitivity (90%CL) ~0.08 in half yr, 0.03 ultimately 4 T2K center
6x2.95=17.4GW & 4x20t far/4x20t near det’s (1.6~2km) 4/8 det’s filled, 2det’s taking data Data taking with full det’s from Summer 2012 sin22q13 <0.03(0.02) at 3s in 1(3) yrs Daya Bay experiment
FNAL NuMI off-axis beam Power upgrade 320kW700kW Recycler: anti-proton proton Rep cycle 2.2s 1.33s New 14kton liquid scintillator fine grained detector @810km Far detector will complete and start full operation in 2014 NOvA 21
Can measure large q13 (~T2K center) very soon For smaller q13 good competition Have some sensitivity on mass hierarchy NOvA expected sensitivities Fogli T2K region T2K Fogli T2K
Implication of large q13 on Future • If sin22q13> ~0.01 • Make conventional Multi-MW super beam long baseline experiments possible to explore CPV in lepton sector • Although big step needed • IF not • Need “ideal” beam such as Neutrino Factory or beta beam to probe CPV T2K region
Implication of large q13 on Future 1st peak @ 295km (0.6GeV) • CPV asymmetry get smaller for larger q13 • Severer requirement on systematic error • Matter effect becomes comparable even at @295km • Need energy spectrum information to disentangle CPV and Matter effect • ~20% CPV effect at sin22q13=0.1 w/ sindCP=1 (max. vio.) at 1st peak • To detect CPV >3s for sind>0.2 (Asym=4%) O(10k) events necessary • Much higher statistics is necessary >MW proton & huge detector mandatory T2K 90% region Matter effect Pure CPV effect Next talk
Summary • Quest for non-zero q13 is turning around final corner • T2K detected first indication of ne appearance at 2.5s significance • 0.03(0.04)<sin22q13<0.28(0.34) (inv hier) • MINOS presented consistent results • New reactor experiments are getting online • NOvA will come in 2014 • Discovery of finite q13 will come very soon (hopefully)! • Large q13 makes possible to explore CPV with upgraded >MW beam and Huge high sensitivity detector