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NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Energy Security Forecast MAJ Chris Miller

NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Energy Security Forecast MAJ Chris Miller. US Energy Security . How might changes in energy markets affect US foreign policy? What are the relevant trends? Gradual economic recovery/growth Growing energy industry What are the game changers? Shale New pipelines

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NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Energy Security Forecast MAJ Chris Miller

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  1. NS4053 Fall Term 2013Energy SecurityForecastMAJ Chris Miller

  2. US Energy Security • How might changes in energy markets affect US foreign policy? • What are the relevant trends? • Gradual economic recovery/growth • Growing energy industry • What are the game changers? • Shale • New pipelines • Potential outcomes? • US retraction vs smaller footprint

  3. US Energy Security Today • BLUF: US still heavily reliant upon imported energy • Since 1973: • Production is up • Consumption is up • Efficiency is up • Energy diversification continues to rise • Shale products entering market • Energy institutions in place

  4. Middle East Today • Arabian monarchies remain most reliable producers • OPEC likely to remain key influencer in energy markets (short-term) • Iraqi oil industry back to pre-war production levels • Increasingly autonomous Kurdish regions preparing for production • Iran emerging from sanctions to boost energy production • Turkish reliance on Russian / Iranian energy • MENA economies battered by Arab Spring

  5. Europe Today • Russian energy dominates Central / Easter European energy markets • Turkey • Ukraine • Germany • Poland • UK (coal)

  6. Global Energy Today • Americas approaching self-sufficiency and export status • Canada, US, Mexico, Brazil • Chinese / Indian consumption growing and reliant on Persian Gulf and bad African investments • Nuclear development underway • Renewables aid in diversification • Global Strategic Reserves • Shale optimal when gas prices are high

  7. Middle East Tomorrow • Arabian oil production increase • OPEC challenged by shale • Iraqi production peak by 2020 • Kurdish oil to Turkey? • Iranian oil to Turkey? (post-sanction normalization) • Eastern Med energy basin • Jordanian shale? (Still waiting for that one) • MENA recovery from Arab Spring is just around the corner, right?

  8. Europe Tomorrow • Energy imports diversified among Russia, Americas, MENA • American competition with Russia • Polish shale • Increased Turkish security

  9. Energy Tomorrow • Americas expands to Australia • Chinese / Indian consumption still growing • Rise of Indian Ocean / SE Asian economy • Nuclear power improvements • Renewables and Efficiency on global scale • Global Strategic Reserves • Effects of shale on global prices?

  10. Energy Tomorrow

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