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NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Climate Change, Energy and Security

NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Climate Change, Energy and Security. Overview. Uncertainty? Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo Type of security concerns? Adaptation Consequence management Policy responses Implications for energy security. Climate Change I.

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NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Climate Change, Energy and Security

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  1. NS4053 Fall Term 2013Climate Change, Energy and Security

  2. Overview • Uncertainty? • Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo • Type of security concerns? • Adaptation • Consequence management • Policy responses • Implications for energy security

  3. Climate Change I • Little uncertainty over the direction of change • Statistical analysis of data on climate • Some uncertainty over speed of change • Wide variety of sources and models on data • Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions • Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur

  4. Climate Change II • Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change • Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact: • Reduce use of fossil fuels • Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels • Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change • Implications for energy security are mixed.

  5. Climate Change III

  6. Climate Change IV

  7. Climate Change V Types of Climate Change Issues • Not just data in temperatures • Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems • Decline in polar icecaps • Increase in number and duration of droughts • Increased frequency of extreme weather events • Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration • Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes • Long term challenges of adaptation

  8. Climate Change VI Consequence management concerns • Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces • Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important? • Consequential for budgets, planning and programs? • Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change • International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

  9. Climate Change VII • Adaptation Concerns • Population support • Food and water • Health • Energy • Human security • Migration • Armed conflict • Governance • State viability • Economic viability

  10. Climate Change VIII • Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries

  11. Climate Change IX • Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090

  12. Climate Change X • Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

  13. Climate Change XI • Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers

  14. Climate Change XII

  15. Climate Change XIII Role of environmental policy • Case of both market failure and government failure • So what should government focus on? • Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change • Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right • Establish simple rules of the game • Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right

  16. Climate Change XIV Policy Tools • Wait and see -- • Internalize climate change costs • Create markets • Regulate sources • Market facilitation (information) • Stimulate technological development • Ease economic adaptation • Pursue international coordinated response

  17. Climate Change XV Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy • Identify gaps in climate data • Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes • NOAA/NSA • Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations • DNI • Climate change>human security>national security? • Develop indicators

  18. Climate Change XVI Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.) • NSC • Coordinate whole of government approach • DoD • Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather • Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water • Enhance partner resilience • Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts • Focus on Africa as region at high risk • Littoral risk assessment and adaptation

  19. Climate Change XVII Implications for energy security • Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and associated emissions • Benefits to energy security • Greater focus on efficiency • Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America • More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower • Cons for security in general

  20. Climate Change XVIII Final Thoughts • Already successful states • Cost to address/mitigate climate change • Competition for capital with other states • Magnets for migration • Looked to for aid and disaster response • Less developed states • Varying impact of climate change • Poor governance increases risks • Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural economies • Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources • Less able to manage uncertainty?

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