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Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service

Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service. NOAA Science Advisory Board N ovember 6, 2001. Lightning. 14. 99. Flood. Tornado. 55. 193. Heat. 57. Hail. 58. 26. Cold. Heat. Flood. Hurricane. Winter Storm. Disaster Impacts.

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Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service

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  1. Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr.Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory BoardNovember 6, 2001

  2. Lightning 14 99 Flood Tornado 55 193 Heat 57 Hail 58 26 Cold Heat Flood Hurricane Winter Storm Disaster Impacts Average Annual Deaths (1990-99): 502 Average Annual Cost (1990-99): $13.1 Billion $4,969 Hurricane $5,600 Flood $469 $871 $692 $445 $34 $56 June 11, 2001

  3. National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Service Areas and River Forecast Centers River Forecast Center location (Alaska and Hawaii also have Hydrometeorological Service Areas and share the River Forecast Center in Anchorage.) (Puerto Rice has a Hydrometeorological Service Area and is covered by the Southeast River Forecast Center.)

  4. Hydrologic Service Delivery Forecast Locations National Major River Basin

  5. Emphasis on Science and Technology NEXRAD Radar Grid High Resolution Basins Current forecast locations Forecast for each grid cell Forecast for each basin

  6. Impacts of Recent NWS Reorganization • Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) leads science infusion, data acquisition, and software engineering activities to support NWS field offices • Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch provides the critical focus for collaboration with the hydrologic research community • OHD Director ensures hydrologic science issues are prominent in NWS Corporate Board deliberations • Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services identifies requirements and formulates national policy to meet emerging customer needs for hydrometeorology and hydroclimate services • The Hydrologic Services Division facilitates consistent hydrologic warning and forecast products.

  7. Water Related Challenges • 1. Monitor and forecast the water cycle • 2. Improve atmosphere/land/ocean prediction systems • 3. Translate full information content of weather and climate forecasts into hydrologic applications • 4. Improve hydrologic data assimilation, modeling, and forecasting • 5. Expand access to a consistent suite of hydrologic data and products • 6. Improve water resource services

  8. 1. Monitor and Forecast Water Cycle • The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monitor and predict: temperature, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and sea-ice • NWS advanced dynamic models support expanded weather and climate services • NCEP issues threats assessments and drought monitor products Click here to enlarge image

  9. 2. Improve Atmosphere/Land/Ocean Prediction Systems • NCEP/research community collaborate to: • refine model resolution • extend to global domain • improve ocean data assimilation techniques • more fully exploit satellite-derived data • OHD and NCEP are implementing land data assimilation systems nationally and globally Click here to enlarge image

  10. 3. Translate Information into Hydrologic Applications OHD and NCEP are developing probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) for input to hydrologic forecast models Weather and climate model forecasts, for space and time scales courser than required for hydrologic prediction, are adapted to support hydrologic models, and to incorporate forecast uncertainty Click here to enlarge image

  11. 4. Improve Hydrologic Modeling OHD is developing new generation hydrologic data assimilation techniques and process-based distributed models through Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) and participation in the GEWEX America’s Prediction Project (GAPP) OHD led Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP) is guiding NWS hydrologic model development and implementation

  12. 5. Consistent National Product: Significant River Flood Outlook Sample Product

  13. 6. Improve Water Resource Services NCEP products are used by River Forecast Centers, Bureau of Reclamation, National Resources Conservation Service, and state and local agencies for water supply management NWS Western Region Hydrologic Services Division established a position dedicated exclusively to hydroclimate services AHPS implementation will provide more accurate stream predictions critical to reservoir operations, flood forecasts, and water supply management

  14. Issues for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board Expanded Research and Development to: 1. Improve the accuracy of atmosphere/land/ ocean monitoring and prediction systems 2. Evolve distributed hydrologic models and data assimilation techniques 3. Incorporate uncertainty information into hydrologic applications

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