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VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET INFLOW OUTLOOKS LONINO

VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET INFLOW OUTLOOKS LONINO. Paul Trimble Jayantha Obeysekera Ph.D., P.E., D.WRE South Florida Water Management District. In lake Environment & Recreational Use. Lake Okeechobee is a Regional Multiple Purpose Water Resource.

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VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET INFLOW OUTLOOKS LONINO

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  1. VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET INFLOW OUTLOOKSLONINO Paul Trimble Jayantha ObeysekeraPh.D., P.E., D.WRE South Florida Water Management District

  2. In lake Environment & Recreational Use Lake Okeechobee is a Regional Multiple Purpose Water Resource

  3. Regional Hydrologic System of South Florida • Water Supply • Agriculture • Urban • Natural Systems • Flood Protection • Environmental and Ecosystem Preservation and Restoration • Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone • Caloosahatchee, and St Lucie Estuaries • Everglades Hydroperiod Restoration • Recreational

  4. Lake Okeechobee Inflows & Outflows Taylor Crk Kissimmee Nubbin Slough C-41A, C-40 & C-41 S-135 S-308 St Lucie may inflow if Lake is < 14.5 Fisheating Creek (Uncontrolled) & C-5 Lake Okeechobee C-10 S-77 80% East & West 20% South S-352 Inflowcapacityexceeds outflowcapacity. S-354 S-351 S-2 & S-3 under large rainfall may pump to Lake Lake Okeechobee's drainage basin covers more than 4,600 square miles

  5. Water Shortage Lake Okeechobee Management Zones (Rule Curves) Flood Control

  6. Potential Predictors of Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow • Antecedent Conditions of the Tributary Basins • El Nino/La Nina • Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation • North Atlantic Oscillation • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Atlantic Meridional Mode • Extent of the Atlantic Warm pool • Various Scales of Solar Activity

  7. Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook (LONINO) • Estimation of the change in lake stage over the next 6 months (Seasonal Forecast) and 7-12 months (Multi-seasonal Forecast) • Forecasts are part of WSE decision-making process

  8. Seasonal Forecast • Always 6-months in duration • Methods: • For Development of WSE: • Artificial Neural Network Modeling • For Application • Croley’s method • HSM Experimental • AMO/ENSO Subsampling • CPC climate forecasts applied to Lake Inflow time series

  9. Multi-Seasonal Forecasts • Multi-season: Remainder of current season + next season. Duration: • For Development of WSE: • Neural Network based seasonal forecasts + forecasts for the remaining months based on ENSO in dry season, and AMO/PDO in wet season • Application • Croley • HSM Experimental • AMO/ENSO Subsampling

  10. (Next Six Months)

  11. Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone Everglades Hydro-pattern Flood Protection Water Supply Estuaries Water Level Based Includes Climate Based Multi-Objective Analysis for Climate Based Operational Guidelines

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