Kelvin Hirsch Research Management Advisor, Canadian Forest Service Dan Ohlson

1. Vulnerability Assessment / Risk ManagementApproach to Climate Change Adaptation in the Forest Management Sector Kelvin Hirsch Research Management Advisor, Canadian Forest Service Dan Ohlson Partner, Compass Resource Management Ltd.

2. Outline • Vulnerability Assessment • Definitions • Concepts and Background • Methods • Risk, Risk Assessment, Risk Management • Definitions • Concepts and Background • Our Workshop Framework

3. Placeholder for Kelvin • in the beginning, there was impact assessment………. • then came vulnerability assessments……….

4. RiskRisk AssessmentRisk Management

5. Defining Risk So what do we mean by Risk Management anyway?

6. Defining Risk Common usage of the term “Risk”, even by experts, is inconsistent and imprecise (five examples): • Risk as uncertainty: What is the “risk” in your estimate? • Risk as hazard: What are the “risks” to timber supply? • Risk as probability: What is the “risk” of a fire? • Risk as consequences: What are the health “risks” from smoke? • Risk as trade-offs: Is that company a good investment “risk”?

7. Defining Risk • Poor definition leads to lack of clarity and provides little management direction…….. “The overall risk in our assessments varies, based on the scenarios in question. On a province-wide basis, the risk is low, but for specific vulnerable wildlife, the risk could be high. The risk of potential high magnitude impact is coupled with scientific uncertainties that prevent precise forecasting of the situations that will be highly risky.”

8. Defining Risk So lets rely on the standards: • Canadian Standards Association (1997): • “The chance of loss defined as a measure of the probability and severity of an adverse effect” • International Standards Organization (2002): • “The combination of the probability of an event and its consequence”

9. More Definitions • Risk = The combination of the probability of an event and its consequence • Risk Assessment = The systematic use of information to define risk • Risk Management = The entire process of assessing risks (i.e., vulnerabilities), developing and evaluating strategies, making decisions under uncertainty, implementing actions and communicating effectively with decision makers and stakeholders.

10. Risk Management Probability Probability High High * * * Proactive Intervention Mitigation Monitoring * * * Low High Low High Consequence Consequence * * Emergency Plans Do Nothing * * * Low Low From Risk Assessment to Risk Management Risk Assessment

11. Links to Climate Change Adaptation There is a growing recognition of the need to adopt risk management approaches to vulnerability assessment and adaptation: • “Given the tremendous uncertainties, it is not surprising that adaptation strategies frequently are described as forms of risk management” (Smit & Pilifosova, 2002) • “Climate change adaptation strategies can be viewed as a risk management component of sustainable forest management plans” (Spittlehouse and Stewart, 2003)

12. Links to Climate Change Adaptation (Source: UKCIP, 2003)

13. Risk Management Risk Management is the entire process of: • Identifying what matters (i.e., assessment endpoints) • Assessing risks (i.e., vulnerabilities) • Developing and evaluating actions and strategies • Making decisions under uncertainty • Implementation and monitoring (i.e., adaptive management) • Communicating effectively with stakeholders and policy makers

14. The Good News! • Risk assessment and risk management methods already exist, we don’t need to re-invent them to address climate change problems! • Examples: • USEPA: Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment • CSA Standard: • UKCIP: Guidelines for Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making • BC Government: Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment

15. A Warning……. • Risk assessment and risk management is NOT(exclusively) a scientific endeavor: • Risk itself cannot be objectively defined or measured – it is not parallel to “temperature” • Risk assessment and management is a function of: • Scientific facts • Human values • The trade-offs associated within a specific planning or decision context

16. OPTION 1 Suppression policy across entire park OPTION 2 Some zones identified for natural wildfire For Example: Consider the problem of managing fire disturbance in a protected area with high ecological value and significant recreation infrastructure. • Is this a risk management problem? • Which option is better?

17. Risk Management = YES! Some probability and consequence issues to think about: • Option 1 will reduce the probability of wildfire effects on recreation in the short term (good), but will have negative ecological effects in the long term (bad). • Option 2 will cost less on average due to reduced suppression (good), but will introduce a small probability of catastrophic outcome, e.g., escape fire into a timber supply area (bad).

18. Which Option is Better = ???? That depends, on: • your perspective, i.e., conservationist vs. timber supply manager • your tolerance for accepting low probability, high consequence outcomes • your confidence in the risk assessment (data, models, etc.) • more…………..

19. A Good Risk Management Process • What you should expect to see… • Unambiguous problem scope and definition • Clear and concise set of objectives • Discrete, internally consistent management alternatives • Explicit expression of uncertainty and its impact on decisions • Trade-offs exposed • Appropriate use of expert judgment (we never will have all the data and information we want) • Clear statement of stakeholder preferences

20. Assess Vulnerabilities (Current and Future) Iteration as Required Develop Risk Management Strategies Formal Adaptive Management Cycle Evaluate and Decide Implement and Monitor Our Workshop Framework Analyze Situation Set Management Objectives