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CHIMERE air quality forecasts : results during Pays de la Loire summer 2004 experiment

CHIMERE air quality forecasts : results during Pays de la Loire summer 2004 experiment and end-user point of view. ACRI-ST. Arnaud REBOURS - AIR PAYS DE LA LOIRE. 1st CHIMERE workshop 21, 22 March 2005 -Palaiseau France. French air pollution control networks organization.

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CHIMERE air quality forecasts : results during Pays de la Loire summer 2004 experiment

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  1. CHIMERE air quality forecasts : results during Pays de la Loire summer 2004 experiment and end-user point of view • ACRI-ST • Arnaud REBOURS - AIR PAYS DE LA LOIRE 1st CHIMERE workshop 21, 22 March 2005 -Palaiseau France

  2. French air pollution control networks organization • 2 missions : air quality survey and information PARIS NANTES Air Pays  de la Loire Pays de la Loire region : 3 200 000 inhab.; 32 000 km2

  3. Laval St-Nazaire Cholet La Roche/Y Air Pays de la Loire • Territorial cover Le Mans • 10 survey zones • 50 survey sites • continuous control • 15 minutes time resolution Angers Nantes

  4. Regional scale : Calgrid • Street scale : OSPM 10 august 2003 NO2 - Nantes 2001 • Industrial scale : Calpuff 11 feb. 2003 - refinery • Modelisation tools Scenario mode

  5. Summer 2004 experiment : operation by ACRI-ST of an air quality forecast system based on MM5-CHIMERE over the Pays de la Loire region CONTEXT • 18 june 2004 french regulation : during pollution episodes, air quality public information is based on observations or on risk of exceedings of thresholds -> necessity of forecasting development • Period : 13 july - 12 october 2004

  6. GWEST 15 km • 2zones : Great West area (15 km) and Pays de la Loire region (5 km) APL 5 km • 2pollutants : O3 and NO2 • 4daily outputs : D-1, D, D+1 and D+2 • hourly time step LOCAL FORECASTING PLATFORM

  7. Interface computer Job programmer Forecast computer : MM5-CHIMERE LOCAL FORECASTING PLATFORM Inputs Outputs Emissions inventory : 5km and 50 km 2D Data Maps Meteorological data : NCEP Platform publication Continental chemistry : PREV ’AIR

  8. pollutant 4 days forecasts zone pollution Meteo- rology WEB INTERFACE

  9. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS • Observation data : 20 survey sites • Statistical criteria : BIAS and NMSE

  10. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS ozone

  11. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS ozone

  12. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS ozone

  13. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS ozone

  14. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS NO2

  15. FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS NO2

  16. calculation validation POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS • Vigilance maps improve public information • 2 ways : forecasting observation • 13 alert zones :5 departments (counties), 7 agglomerations, 1 industrial area • 3 symbolic colours : green, orange, red

  17. Forecasted exceeding POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS • Vigilance maps improve public information Procedure activating conditions - agglomerations : 2 sites - departments : 2 agglomerations or 30% of the zone

  18. POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS • Vigilance maps improve public information communiqués(fax and e-mail) web site : www.airpl.org

  19. POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS • Air quality index prediction • Exceedings evaluations of limit values, quality objectives and target values Annual maps ,...)=

  20. CONCLUSION • Forecast results are acceptable for ozone and better than continental modeled values for NO2 • Local platform brings helps to diagnosis : background pollution in the great west of France, influence of Paris pollution, meteorological forecast parameters • Post processing improve air quality information in connection with alert system or daily pollution

  21. PROSPECTS • Integration of detailed emission calculations (AIREMIS) • Statistical adaptation of modeled results with observations for D-1 and D steps • Integration of meteorological and pollution vertical profiles • Local platform should be operated by Air Pays de la Loire during summer 2005

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