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INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY STUDIES (IDPS), VISAKHAPATNAM

INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY STUDIES (IDPS), VISAKHAPATNAM EXTENDS A WARM WELCOME TO THIS PRESENTATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE & IMPACT ON POVERTY.

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INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY STUDIES (IDPS), VISAKHAPATNAM

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  1. INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY STUDIES (IDPS), VISAKHAPATNAM EXTENDS A WARM WELCOME TO THIS PRESENTATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE & IMPACT ON POVERTY THIS IS A CONCEPT PRESENTATION ESSENTIALLY BASED ON PUBLISHED WORKS OF VERY DISTINGUISHED AUTHORS AND THE EXTRACT ED INFORMATION IS DULY ACKNOWLEDGED. NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE CHANGE 4TH ROUND TABLE MEET AT KOLKATA 8TH APRIL’2011 PROF. R V RAMA RAO DIRECTOR, IDPS & MEMBER, NTAG(JNNURM), GOI & MEMBER, PM’S MONITORING GROUP

  2. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE SCENARIOS IN THE COUNTRY IS PRESENTED

  3. THE SCENARIO • OCCUPIES 2.4% (3.28 MILLION SQ. KM OF THE WORLDS LAND AREA BUT SUPPORT 16.2% (MORE THAN 1 BILLION) OF THE WORLDS HUMAN POPULATION • DIVERSE PHYSIOGRAPHIC FEATURES - HIMALAYAS, COASTAL AREAS, NORTHERN PLAINS, PENINSULAR PLATEAU AND ISLANDS • DOMINATING FEATURE OF CLIMATE IS THE MONSOON • ENDOWED WITH VARIED CLIMATE, BIODIVERSITY AND ECOLOGICAL REGIONS (FOREST COVER ABOUT 675.5 THOUSAND SQ KM • 2/3 RD POPULATION DEPENDENT ON CLIMATE SENSITIVE SECTORS • POVERTY RATIO AT NATIONAL POVERTY LINE ~ 28.6 % OF TOTAL POPULATION • GDP GROWTH : 7% ANNUALLY (AVERAGE)

  4. THE SCENARIO (CONTD..) • AGRICULTURAL LAND ~ 60.8% OF TOTAL LAND AREA • CO2 EMISSIONS ~ 1. 2 T PER CAPITA • ENERGY USE~ 508.8 KG OF OIL EQUIVALENT PER CAPITA • GDP (CURRENT US$) ~ 691.2 BILLION • GDP GROWTH : 8% ANNUALLY (AVERAGE)

  5. WE HAVE ALSO THE LARGE AREAS OF THE COUNTRY WHICH ARE PRONE TO DISASTERS Salinity Drought Uncontrolled flooding

  6. GROWTH TRENDS OF INDIAN ECONOMY • BY 2020 INDIA’S GDP IS LIKELY TO QUADRUPLE FROM THE CURRENT $ 1.1 TRILLION TO ABOUT $ 4.5 TRILLION • PER CAPITA INCOME FROM RS 50,000 TO RS 1,50,000 • THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME OF MORE THAN RS 16 LACS WILL BE OVER 18 MILLION, WHILE NUMBER OF MIDDLE CLASS HOLDERS (1.5 TO 16 LACS) WOULD GROW BY 50% TO 180 MILLION • NUMBER OF DEPRIVED HOUSEHOLDERS – BELOW 1.5 LACS IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED BY 25% TO 180 • INDIAN CONSUMPTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE 3.7 TIMES TO ABOUT 113 TRILLION WITH DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE LIKELY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. • EDUCATION SECTOR TO GROW 5.7 TIMES

  7. GROWTH TRENDS OF INDIAN ECONOMY (CONTD..) • DOMESTIC PHARMA AND HEALTH CARE- 6 TIMES • MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT 5 TIMES • ORGANISED RETAIL 6.3 TIMES • AUTOMOBILE SECTOR 4.8 TIMES • URBAN PREMIUM HOUSING 6.5 TIMES • BY 2020 EXPECTED SAVINGS -$ 1.4 TRILLION MORE THAN OUR CURRENT GDP • THE MASSIVE GROWTH IN SAVINGS WILL PROPEL • 5.3 TIMES GROWTH IN BANKING • 4.7 TIMES IN BROKING • 5.7 TIMES IN ASSET MANAGEMENT AND 4.7 TIMES IN LIFE INSRANCE

  8. THIS GROWTH TREND WOULD RESULT IN • EXECUTION OF PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS • HIGHER INCOME WOULD RESULT IN INFLATION AT GRASS ROOT LEVEL, AFFECTING LOWER INCOME POPULATION • EXCLUSION OF LOWER INCOME SEGMENTS IN THE GROWTH PATTERN • THE INCOME DISPARITY LEVELS WOULD BE AMONG THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD. • IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE BOTTOM OF THE PYRAMID PARTICIPATES IN THE GROWTH PROCESS

  9. INDIA’S DEVELOPMENTAL GOALS… • REDUCING THE POVERTY RATIO BY 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS BY 2007 AND BY 15 PERCENTAGE POINTS BY 2012 • PROVIDING GAINFUL AND HIGH-QUALITY EMPLOYMENT TO THE LABOR FORCE • ALL CHILDREN IN SCHOOL BY 2003; ALL CHILDREN TO COMPLETE 5 YEARS OF SCHOOLING BY 2007 4. REDUCING GENDER GAPS IN LITERACY AND WAGE RATES BY AT LEAST 50 % BY 2007 5. RAISING THE LITERACY RATE TO 75% WITHIN THE 10TH PLAN • REDUCING THE DECADAL RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH BETWEEN 2001-2011 TO 16.2% THE GOALS IN BLUE ARE MORE AMBITIOUS THAN CORRESPONDING MDGS

  10. INDIA’S DEVELOPMENTAL GOALS… • REDUCING THE INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR) TO 45 PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS BY 2007 AND TO 28 BY 2012 • REDUCING THE MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO (MMR) TO 2 PER 1000 LIVE BIRTHS BY 2007 AND TO 1 BY 2012 • INCREASING THE FOREST AND TREE COVER TO 25 % BY 2007 AND 33 % BY 2007 • ALL VILLAGES TO HAVE SUSTAINED ACCESS TO POTABLE DRINKING WATER BY 2007 • ELECTRICITY FOR ALL BY 2012 12. CLEANING OF ALL MAJOR POLLUTED RIVERS BY 2007 AND OTHER NOTIFIED STRETCHES BY 2012 THE GOALS IN BLUE ARE MORE AMBITIOUS THAN CORRESPONDING MDGS

  11. Source: Report of Committee on Long Term Grain Policy, 2002

  12. A FEW INTERESTING STATISTICS ARE OF RELEVANCE OF EVERY 100 INDIANS ... (%) 57 LIVE IN RURAL AREAS 44 DO NO HAVE ACCESS TO SAFE WATER 49 DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO DECENT SANITATION 28 HAVE HOUSEHOLD SIZE MORE THAN FIVE 43 HAVE LESS THAN PRIMARY EDUCATION 24 ARE ILLITERATE 44 WORK IN AGRICULTURE 60 WORK IN INFORMAL SECTOR 16 WORK AS UNPAID FAMILY WORKER 42 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT SECONDARY HIGH SCHOOL 36 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT ACCESS TO TELEPHONE 25 OF THOSE AGED BELOW FIVE ARE MALNOURISHED AND 32 WERE DELIVERED BY UNSKILLED MIDWIFE

  13. A FEW INTERESTING STATISTICS ARE OF RELEVANCE (CONTD..) BUT OF EVERY 100 POOR INDIANS… (%) 69 LIVE IN RURAL AREAS 52 DO NO HAVE ACCESS TO SAFE WATER 73 DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO DECENT SANITATION 48 HAVE HOUSEHOLD SIZE MORE THAN FIVE 55 HAVE LESS THAN PRIMARY EDUCATION 16 ARE ILLITERATE 64 WORK IN AGRICULTURE 75 WORK IN INFORMAL SECTOR 22 WORK AS UNPAID FAMILY WORKER 50 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT SECONDARY HIGH SCHOOL 49 LIVE IN VILLAGES WITHOUT ACCESS TO TELEPHONE 28 OF THOSE AGED BELOW FIVE ARE MALNOURISHED AND 47 WERE DELIVERED BY UNSKILLED MIDWIFE

  14. 1. Food Needs ONE SHOULD THUS ALSO REMEMBER, THAT ALL THESE ASPECTS LEAD TO THE VICIOUS CIRCLE AND LINKS OF POVERTY 2. Health 3. Education 10. Participation 4. Work 9. Human Security 8. Natural resources 5. Housing Quality of Human Resources 7.Land 6. Clean water

  15. WORRYING ISSUES • NEWS OF STARVATION DEATHS & FARMERS’ SUICIDES FROM MANY STATES • STAGNANT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AND FALLING FOOD AVAILABILITY • UNEMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED FROM 4 TO 8% IN TEN YEARS • REGIONAL DISPARITIES ARE INCREASING • IMR STAGNATING AROUND 60 PER 1000, IT IS 46 IN BANGLADESH • IMMUNISATION COVERAGE FELL FROM 60 TO 40% IN 5 YRS • MORE THAN 50% WOMEN ARE ANEMIC • 46% CHILDREN ARE MALNOURISHED • DECLINING CHILD SEX RATIO DURING 1991-2001 • THERE IS NO WILL TO IMPROVE ADMINISTRATION IN POOR STATES

  16. CHRONIC HUNGER AND STARVATION PERSIST IN LARGE SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION. THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINING CALORIE CONSUMPTION ESPECIALLY IN THE BOTTOM 30% OF THE POPULATION.

  17. THERE IS A CLEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PREVALENCE OF RAINFED RICE AND THE LEVEL OF POVERTY.

  18. THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF POVERTY - INDIVIDUAL LEVEL

  19. LET US NOW BRIEFLY EXAMINE THE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

  20. KEY VULNERABLE RIVER BASINS • Acute physical water scarce conditions • Constant water scarcities and shortage • Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions • Rare water shortages

  21. AGRICULTURE • DECREASE IN YIELD OF CROPS AS TEMPERATURE INCREASES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF INDIA - FOR EXAMPLE A A 2°C INCREASE IN MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE, RICE YIELDS COULD DECREASE BY ABOUT 0.75 TON/HECTARE IN THE HIGH YIELD AREAS AND BY ABOUT 0.06 TON/HECTARE IN THE LOW YIELD COASTAL REGIONS. • MAJOR IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE ON RAIN FED CROPS (OTHER THAN RICE AND WHEAT), WHICH ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY 60% OF CROPLAND AREA. IN INDIA POOREST FARMERS PRACTICE RAIN FED AGRICULTURE. • THE LOSS IN FARM-LEVEL NET REVENUE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9 AND 25% FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF 2-3.5°C. • FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 1600 KG/HA TO BELOW 1400KG/HA, A DECLINE OF ABOUT 8.5% IN A SINGLE YEAR • VARIOUS ESTIMATES INCLUDING BY FAO SAY THAT INDIA COULD EXPERIENCE 18%-30% DECLINE IN FOOD PRODUCTION

  22. COASTAL ZONES • SIMULATION MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL PARTICULARLY INTENSE EVENTS ARE PROJECTED DURING THE POST-MONSOON PERIOD • SEA LEVEL RISE IS PROJECTED TO DISPLACE POPULATIONS IN COASTAL ZONES, INCREASE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, LOSS OF CROP YIELDS FROM INUNDATION AND SALINIZATION. 7500 km COAST LINE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE INDIAN COAST DUE TO SLR

  23. 30-10-2007 ดร.จิรพล สินธุนาวา 27

  24. A FEW FACTS FROM AGRICULTURAL SECTOR • 70% OF INDIA’S POPULATION IS RURAL • AROUND 65% INDIANS ARE ENGAGED/EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE OFFICIALLY, • 27% - or 270 MILLION - INDIANS LIVE IN ABSOLUTE POVERTY • AROUND 200 MILLION POOR LIVE IN RURAL AREAS • PER CAPITA FOOD AVAILABILITY HAS DECLINED IN INDIA FROM 177 KG TO 155 KG ANNUALLY. 155 KG WAS THE PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY OF FOOD IN 1941, THE YEAR OF THE BENGAL FAMINE • STARVATION DEATHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM VARIOUS PLACES IN INDIA REPORTEDLY, ABOUT 1 MILLION FARMERS COMMITTED SUICIDE BETWEEN 1993-2003

  25. VULNERABILITY OF THE INDIAN COASTLINE 26% of Indian population live within 50km from the shoreline. Most of the coastal areas are low lying and vulnerable to oceanographic hazards like tsunamis, storm surges, sea level rise etc.

  26. IDENTIFIED AREAS OF NATURAL HAZARD ALONG THE COASTLINE • SEA LEVEL RISE LEADING TO INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS WILL PLACE ABOUT 2.5 MILLION PEOPLE AT RISK IN THE STATES OF GOA AND MAHARASHTRA. • COST OF POTENTIAL DAMAGES TO BOMBAY, THE FINANCIAL CAPITAL OF INDIA, ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND EURO 40 BILLION

  27. FORESTRY 77% AND 68% OF THE FORESTED GRIDS IN INDIA ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SHIFT IN FOREST TYPES INDICATIONS SHOW A SHIFT TOWARDS WETTER FOREST TYPES IN THE NORTHEASTERN REGION AND DRIER FOREST TYPES IN THE NORTHWESTERN REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF HUMAN INFLUENCE. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION AND CLIMATE WARMING COULD ALSO RESULT IN A 50 TO 70% INCREASE UNDER THE B2 SCENARIO

  28. HEALTH MALARIA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN MANY STATES AND NEW REGIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES MAY BECOME MALARIA-PRONE THE DURATION OF THE MALARIA TRANSMISSION WINDOWS IS LIKELY TO WIDEN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN STATES AND SHORTEN IN SOUTHERN STATES. REGIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY MALARIA IN 2050S ENDEMIC REGIONS OF MALARIA

  29. A FEW STARTLINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE BANGALORE’S FUEL CONSUMPTION BANGALORE HAS 27 LAKH VEHICLES ON THE ROADS THAT CONSUME 260 MILLION LITRES OF FUEL PER YEAR. FOR EVERY LITRE OF PETROL USED WE RELEASE 2.3 KGS OF CO2 BANGALORE CO2 EMISSION ESTIMATE FROM ONLY PRIVATE VEHICLES IS CLOSE TO 13,00,000,000 KGS OF CO2 PER YEAR. AVIATION FUEL PER DAY : 1,200,000 LITRES. BROUGHT FROM CHENNAI IN TANKERS INDIA’S CONSUMPTION OF POWER INDIA’S CONSUMPTION OF POWER IN INDIA 67% OF OUR POWER COMES FROM COAL POWER PLANTS FOR EVERY 1 MW OF COAL POWER USED 970 KGS OF CO2 IS RELEASED THEREFORE FOR EVERY 1 MW OF POWER USED 650 KGS OF CO2 IS RELEASED IN 2004, BANGALORE’S PEAK USAGE WAS 1000 MW, EQUAL TO OVER 20 MILLION KGS OF CO2 RELEASED PER DAY.

  30. INDIA NEEDS MORE ENERGY FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT • THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT HAS TARGETED AN 8% GDP GROWTH RATE PER ANNUM TO ACHIEVE ITS DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES • IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THESE DEVELOPMENTAL ASPIRATIONS, SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION WILL BE NECESSARY AND COAL, BEING THE ABUNDANT DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCE, WOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE.

  31. SUGGESTED ACTION INITIATIVES IDENTIFICATION OF ADOPTION TECHNOLOGIES AND MEASURES WHICH ARE AREA SPECIFIC IN NATURE AS A MITIGATION MEASURES AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE. THE GDP GROWTH RATES RESULTING IN INCREASED FDI’S LEADING TO MAJOR INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE & INDUSTRY SECTOR SHOULD NOT LEAD TO INCREASE IN POVERTY LEVELS. SPECIAL ACTION PROGRAMMES HAVE TO BE INITIATED AT MICRO WATERSHED LEVELS ALL ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY IN VULNERABLE DISTRICTS BASING ON SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECT ENDEAVOURS. JNNURM INITIATVES TO BE FOCUSED IN RELATION TO URBAN POOR WITH INTEGRATION OF NATIONAL HEALTH MISSION, FOOD SECURITY AND OCCUPATIONS.

  32. GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS • UNDERTAKE A RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE MUNICIPAL AREA TO IDENTIFY THE MOST SIGNIFI CANT AREAS OF RISK AND TO ESTABLISH PRIORITIES • INCORPORATE POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTIONS INTO STRATEGIC PLANNING WHERE APPROPRIATE. • NEW BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE • WHERE PRACTICABLE, ADOPT CLIMATE SENSITIVE BUILDING DESIGN THAT CONSIDERS LOCAL COOLING AND HEATING REQUIREMENTS • DESIGN BUILDINGS TO ALLOW FOR CONSIDERATION OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND INCORPORATION OF FUTURE ADAPTATION • EXISTING BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE • MONITOR ANY CHANGES TO THE CONDITION IN STRUCTURES SO THAT ANY MODIFICATIONS/RETROFITTING OCCURS ON TIME AND PRIOR TO FAILURE

  33. GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS (CONTD..) • IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS SHOULD THE EXISTING BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE BE IMPACTED UPON IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN SERVICES AND CONNECTIONS, E.G. TO MINIMISE ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES DURING AN ADVERSE STORM EVENT THAT PUTS THE INFRASTRUCTURE AT HIGHER RISK • DESIGN RETROFI TTING TO A HIGHER STANDARD THAN THE MINIMUM SET WHERE POSSIBLE AND PRACTICAL • PROGRESSIVELY INCORPORATE HIGHER DESIGN STANDARDS INTO ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANS AND ROLLING CAPITAL WORKS PROGRAMMES. • COMMUNITY HEALTH AND RECREATION • ESTABLISH THE LEVEL OF RISK TO THE COMMUNITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO ASSIST IN PRIORITISING POTENTIAL ADAPTATION ACTIONS • CONTROL PLANNING AND ACTIVITIES IN AREAS OF HIGH RISK • ENCOURAGE BUILDING DESIGN AND PUBLIC SPACES THAT PROVIDE IMPROVED LEVELS OF THERMAL COMFORT AND SECURITY, E.G. PROTECTION DURING FL OODS OR EXTREME WIND.

  34. GENERAL THEMES OF ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN URBAN AREAS (CONTD..) • NATURAL ENVIRONMENT • ANALYSE THE RISKS FROM THE INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT, SUCH AS FL OOD LIABILITY, STORM SURGE, SPECIES EXTINCTION, SECURITY OF WATER SUPPLY • REDUCE OTHER EXTERNAL STRESSES E.G. POLLUTION OR DEVELOPMENT.

  35. IMPACTS ON MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG’S) MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS) AND RELATED NATIONAL POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES. UNLESS CONCRETE AND URGENT STEPS ARE UNDERTAKEN TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY AND ENHANCE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF POOR PEOPLE, AND UNLESS THESE ACTIONS ARE INTEGRATED IN NATIONAL STRATEGIES FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MEET SOME MDGs by 2015 STRATEGIES TO STRENGTHEN CAPACITY TO COPE WITH CURRENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES AND TO ADAPT TO EXPECTED FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ARE MUTUALLY SUPPORTIVE AND WILL HAVE IMMEDIATE BENEFITS. THEY WILL ALSO HELP IDENTIFY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE POSITIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

  36. THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND INDULGENCE

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