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Are East Asian countries politically stable?

Are East Asian countries politically stable?. TAN Ern Ser. Framework. What constitutes East Asia? N-E Asia, S-E Asia. Complexity, heterogeneous: race, class, religion, region, ideology. Interests, visions, strategies (violence, secession, autonomy, reform)

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Are East Asian countries politically stable?

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  1. Are East Asian countries politically stable? TAN Ern Ser

  2. Framework • What constitutes East Asia? N-E Asia, S-E Asia. • Complexity, heterogeneous: race, class, religion, region, ideology. • Interests, visions, strategies (violence, secession, autonomy, reform) • State and government/regime: strong/weak, consensus & legitimacy • Civil society: strong/weak • External factors: recession, security, health.

  3. What is political stability? Peaceful, harmonious Differences and conflict Regime change Breakdown of key institutions Demise of nation

  4. Recent developments • China: Tibet, Taiwan, natural disasters, Islamists. • Taiwan: pro-China or pro-independence. • South Korea: relationship with US and with North Korea. • Philippines: Arroyo government, Southern Philippines. • Indonesia: religious conflict. • Malaysia: post-March general election. • Thailand: Southern Thailand, urban-rural conflict. • Singapore: financial crisis.

  5. Indicators from the recent Asian Barometer Survey 2006-7

  6. Perceived current and future economic condition (1=bad, 5=good)

  7. Perceived current political condition(5=bad, 1=good)

  8. Trust in Institutions (1=lo, 4=hi)

  9. Perception of Democracy as practiced

  10. Satisfaction with the way democracy works (1=lo, 4=hi)

  11. Evaluation of extent of democracy: free and fair election? (1=free & fair, 4=not so)

  12. Evaluation of extent of democracy: accountability (1=lo, 4=hi)

  13. Evaluation of extent of democracy in Singapore: freedom of speech (1=hi, 4=lo)

  14. Evaluation of extent of democracy: freedom of association (1=hi, 4=lo)

  15. Evaluation of extent of democracy: responsiveness of government (1=hi, 4=lo)

  16. Perceived extent of corruption in government (1=hi degree of corruption, 5=lo)

  17. Perceived equality of treatment by the government (1=agree , 4=disagree)

  18. Attitudinal items

  19. Open quarrels among politicians are harmful to society (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  20. People should always support the government, (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  21. Relationship between government and people should be like that between parents and children (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  22. Conflict among political groups is NOT a bad thing (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  23. Leave complicated political issues to the future (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  24. Prefer little-by-little political reform (1=agree, 4=disagree)

  25. Conclusion • Thailand: unstable, Malaysia: intermediate, Singapore: stable. • Limitations: Broad stroke and macro-level. Need to look at social divisions. Need to use multivariate model. • Some hypotheses: • Democracy does not lead to stability. • Preference for avoidance of conflict does not necessarily lead to stability. • Good governance lead to stability.

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