Migration, the Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

1. Migration, the Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence & Frank Laczko, Head of Research and Publications, International Organization for Migration, Geneva. Flaczko@iom.int.

2. Outline • Presentation of findings from edited volume “Migration the Environment, and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence“, IOM 2009. • Overview of current research, concepts, data, drivers, consequences, policy challenges. • Suggestions for enhancing the evidence base

3. Migration and the Environment: Re-discovered • Topic completely ignored in Global Commission Report on International Migration (GCIM) in 2005. • Yet as early as 1990 IPCC warned that “the gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration”. • First IOM report, published in 1992 “Migration and Environment”: “It is not natural disasters alone that generate risk, but rather the state of human development that shapes vulnerability to disasters”. • Between 2007 and 2009, numerous meetings and media articles, but migration/development and climate change largely discussed in separate global fora.

4. Contested Area of Research Literature tends to fall into two categories: (A) work done by “minimalists” who suggest that the environment is only a contextual factor in migration decisions (B) “maximalists”, who claim that the environment directly causes people to be forced to leave their homes (Fraser, et. al 2008). Overwhelming focus on potential negative impact of environmental migration/displacement; less emphasis on migration as a possible adaptation/coping strategy.

5. Selective review of past and recent research findings focusing on 6 main thematic areas: 1) Conceptualizing the migration and environment nexus, UNU-EHS 2) Challenges to measuring the migration and environment nexus, Dominic Kniveton, University of Sussex 3) Collecting data on migration and the environment, Richard Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina 4) Migration and natural disasters, Asmita Naik, Consultant 5) Managing environmentally induced migration, Susan Martin, Georgetown University 6) Legal frameworks and policy responses, Roger Zetter, Oxford University New IOM report “Migration and Environment: Assessing the Evidence” 5

6. Concepts/definitions: displaced, migrant or refugee ? • Do those who move for environmental reasons have a choice? • In some situations, such as natural disasters, people have little choice but to move. • In other situations of gradual environmental change movement likely to be more voluntary. • Population mobility is probably best viewed as being arranged along a continuum ranging from totally voluntary migration,… to totally forced migration, very few decisions are entirely forced or voluntary (Hugo, 1996) • Key policy implication from a human development perspective is ensuring people have a real choice between choosing to stay or leave

7. Concepts/definitions: IOM working definition No agreed international definition of “environmental migration” • A Working Definition • “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad”. (IOM 2007) • Purpose of Definition • Seeks to encompass population movement or displacement: • Temporary or permanent; internal or cross-border • Regardless of whether voluntary or involuntary • Due to sudden or gradual environmental change

8. Data: numbers affected by certain types of natural disasters 1979-2008 Slow-onset disasters, such as droughts and floods, appear to affect far greater numbers than do sudden events. • Earthquakes 134 million • Droughts 1.6 billion • Floods 2.8 billion • Volcanoes 4.2 million • Storms 718 million Source: EM DAT (Emergency Disasters Database) • 1991-2005, 884,845 deaths due to natural disasters in developing world compared to 61,918 in OECD countries (Basher, 2008) 8

9. Data Challenges: current and expected trends • Most reliable data related to « natural disasters » • Recorded natural disasters have doubled from approximately 200 a year to over 400 a year over the past two decades. • Latest research indicates approx. 20 million persons displaced in 2008 due to climate-related disasters (OCHA/IDMC, 2009). • But no global data on migratory movements prompted by natural disasters; displacement may be short-distance and temporary. • How has the increase in disasters affected the scale and pattern of migration flows ? 9

10. Towards better data • Clearer definitions of what is being measured. • Make better use of existing data sources – for example EM-DAT database gives most globally comprehensive data on number, location and type of sudden-onset disasters, numbers affected and displaced. • But EM-DAT database includes little on-the-ground monitoring of disaster-related displacement and the human dimension of disasters and their impact on migratory flows. • Add migration questions to existing environmental surveys and environmental questions to migration-related surveys – censuses, national living standards, and labour force surveys. • Invest in specialized surveys – to date few recent studies have large or representative samples. • Improve data on internal migration, as most environmental migration likely to be internal. 10

11. Need for quantitative research • There are many good studies on the impacts of migrants on environments, on land use, deforestation etc. • But there is almost no reliable evidence on the effects of environmental factors, “controlling for other influences, on out-migration, particularily from rural areas” (Bilsborrow, 2009). • In a review of literature over the past 50 years, of 321 publications, including 153 articles in peer.reviewed journals and 29 books, only two articles found, which investigate the effects of environmental factors on out-migration based on quantitative mutlivariate methods(Morinière, 2009). • Focus of these few studies tends to be on impact on effects of too much or too little rainfall on migration. 11

12. Fostering closer co-operation between environment and migration researchers • Few social scientists who focus on migration – and rely on data from censuses and household surveys – have been engaged in data collection or research on the environment. • Relatively few of those who focus on the environment, whether social or natural scientists, work on migration. • The study of migration has come to mean the study of international migration, and much of the current research is dominated by scholars in the north. • To better understand the likely impact of climate change will likely require shifting the migration research agenda towards a stronger focus on internal migration, and more emphasis on South-South migration. 12

13. Building Research and Data Collection Capacities • Most environmental migration likely to occur within and between developingcountries where research capacities likely to be limited. • Over 98 per cent of persons affected by climate-related disasters live in developing countries. • DFID new research strategy, 2008-2013, highlights lack of capacity in South: 48 researchers for every million Africans living south of the Sahara compared with nearly 3,000 for every million people in OECD countries. • Example of new initiative – ACP Migration Observatory – 5 year programme to develop research network and build research capacities in ACP countries. 13

14. Policy Challenges: Legal and normative frameworks for environmentally displaced • UNFCC does not include any provisions concerning special assistance or protection for those who will be directly affected by climate change • There is however, considerable scope for adapting or building on existing norms and instruments to develop a framework of guidelines to protect the forcibly displaced (Zetter, 2009). • But new research needed to explore how far governments and civil society at national level have the capacity to implement adaptation and resilience strategies • An exception and gap concerns the rights of transborder migrants and those who become stateless • Important to develop protection policies which do not focus solely on the protection needs of those who move; many of those unable to migrate may be even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 14

15. Policy Challenges: Can migration be a form of adaptation ? • Migration can be a form of adaptation, when migration is a voluntary coping strategy that allows people time to weigh alternatives and use migration as a way to reduce household risk. • Leaving environmentally degraded and agriculturally unsustainable regions can be seen as a legitimate coping strategy for affected populations. • Migration could potentially help slow the process of environmental degradation • Migration and its link to adaptation is recognized in some of the National Adaptation Programmes for Action (NAPAs)

16. Assessment of current policy frameworks: Migration and National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) • NAPAs = principal frameworks adopted to identify priorities to adapt to climate change in least developed countries (38 countries have submitted plans) • Review, by S. Martin, in IOM study indicates many plans includeawareness of migration - especially concerns about increased rural to urban migration. - Bangladesh: awareness that high depth of standing water is preventing crop cultivation leading to migration to cities - Tanzania:erosion and rising sea levels leading to loss of settlements in coastal areas • Fewer NAPAs focus on migration as an explicit adaptation process in itself, either to help fragile eco-systems by reducing population pressures or to protect populations affected by natural disasters or sea-level rise. 16

17. Policy coherence :Linking migration, development and adaptation policies • Ensuring coherence between development, adaptation and migration policies will become increasingly important • NAPAs – one entry point for LDCs – migration recognized in many NAPAs as a factor which can influence adaptation • Key source countries for international migrants, India, China and Mexico, include few references to migration in their national climate change strategies (S. Martin) • Few destination countries as yet have any special provisions to accept persons forcibly displaced due to climate change; some examples of returns being delayed post disasters. 17

18. Conclusion • Likely impact of climate change/environmental degradation on migration highly uncertain • States through processes such as the Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD), have begun to explore again how migration can contribute to development. • It is unhelpful to frame the climate change and migration research agenda solely in terms of the potential negative impacts • Climate change and migration policies should be closely linked to development cooperation efforts and not viewed as separate fields • A more informed policy debate requires much greater investment in data collection, new studies, and research capacity-building.

19. THANK YOU Migration & the Environment

20. Key findings: data • Definitions: How should we define those who move for environmental reasons? (many different categories and definitions developed since 1980s) Is environmental migration inherently a form of forced displacement ? • Data: How many will move? Who is likely to move? When, and where will people move? • Drivers: To what extent can environmental factors be identified and shown to be a primary cause of movement? • Policy responses: Do those displaced for environmental reasons need special protection? How adequate are existing legal and normative frameworks? 20

21. Enhancing the knowledge base: priorities for further research 1) Definitions and concepts 2) Enhancing data collection, capacities and analysis 3) Developing new research methods to better identify causes of environmental migration 4) Understanding the consequences and impact of environmental migration/displacement. 5) Developing coherent and effective policy responses, and legal and normative frameworks 21