Overview

1. Review of Ocean Modeling at NCEP/EMCDr. Louis UccelliniDirector, NCEPJuly 15, 2003“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

2. Overview • NOAAProducts Dependent on Ocean Models • Current Status of Ocean Models run at NCEP • Future Plans and Related Partnerships • Issues for SAB consideration and review

3. Examples of Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling Short-term regional ocean/marine forecasts (out to day 5) • Winds • Waves • Currents • Marine hazards Applicable Models • Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) • Wave Watch III • PORTS (NOS) Physical Oceanographic Real-time System (coupled to Eta, GFS, RUC)

4. Examples of NOAA Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling (Cont.) Weather forecasts out to day 7 • General weather forecasts • Coastal storms • Hurricane track (to day 5) and intensity (to day 3) Applicable Models • GFS & Eta – Passive ocean-atmosphere link (ocean SST forces atmospheric evolution) • GFDL Hurricane model – Active link (forcing goes both ways)

5. Examples of NOAA Products Dependent on Ocean Modeling (Cont.) Climate – Week 2, to seasonal to interannual • Hazard assessment • Monthly temp-precip anomaly forecasts • Seasonal to interannual forecast • Climate events (El Nino; La Nina) Applicable Models • GFS run out to day 16 (ensemble) • passive ocean-atmosphere link • Coupled global forecast model (EMC/GFDL) • lower resolution (200km,28L); run out to 7 months • first attempt to link oceans (Pacific) to atmospheric prediction

6. Current Status of Ocean-linked Models run at NCEP • Many models run operationally that link ocean and atmosphere • GFS • Eta • ROFS • Wave Watch III • GFDL Hurricane Model • Global Climate Model • “Linkage” of Ocean and Atmosphere is simple and limited • Regional extent • Generally one-way: SSTs force atmosphere or atmosphere winds force waves but interaction is not generally two-way ( “coupled”)

7. Future Plans Vision • Implement unified, fully coupled global atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice models • Apply to all operational weather, climate, ocean and sea ice products • Apply within a community model framework for all major components (atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice)

8. Future Plans/ Related Partnerships • Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) (NCAR, GFDL, NASA GSFC, EMC, MIT) • Ocean model under consideration at NCEP • HYCOM ( NOPP partnership) • Implement MOM3, and move toward MOM4 ( GFDL) • Eventual merging of MOM, HYCOM through HOME (Hybrid Ocean Modeling Environment) • Run ESMF/with unified model as an “Ensemble System” • Use as a basis for all assimilation (including ocean) • Retain options for deterministic applications • Couple NOS operational estuarine models with ROFS and hydrologic/river models. • Couple seasonal-to-interannual SST and river flux models to NOS estuarine ecosystem models.

9. Issues for SAB Consideration/Review • Role of ESMF for providing the overall framework • Architectural issues and standards • Which ocean model(s) for specific applications • Focus on “coupling” procedures • Assimilation approaches for ocean observations • Role of ensemble model approach vs. deterministic approach for future ocean forecasts • Opportunities for other partnerships and applications (e.g., NOS operational models, ecosystem models)