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Democratization

Democratization. By Sam Dembling. Democracy and its Variants. Democracy - Government by, of and for the people in which all citizens have a say in which leaders are chosen. Procedural Democracy - Free and fair elections. Minimum.

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Democratization

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  1. Democratization By Sam Dembling

  2. Democracy and its Variants • Democracy- Government by, of and for the people in which all citizens have a say in which leaders are chosen. • Procedural Democracy- Free and fair elections. Minimum. • Substantive Democracy- Procedural + civil liberties and political rights. • Illiberal Democracy- Elections but lack of civil liberties and elections may be unfair. • Managed Democracy- Democracy that leans towards autocracy.

  3. Democratization • Democratization- Transformation from Nondemocratic to Procedural then *possibly* to Substantive. • Three Waves of Democratization- • 1st Wave- Late 19th century to late 1920’s. Western Europe. • 2nd Wave- Post WWII to 1960’s. Colonies in Africa, Asia, and Caribbean. • 3rd Wave- Late 1970’s to mid 1990’s . First Southern Europe, then Latin America/Asia, then collapse of Soviet Union, then Africa. • 4th Wave?- Arab Spring once hailed as fourth wave. But, well…

  4. Preconditions: Modernization • Modernization- Process of moving from a traditional, agriculture based society to a modern, industry or service based society. • Traditional: • Modern:

  5. Preconditions: Level of Economic Development • Modernization- Often brings democracy. • Better infrastructure (roads), communication (newspaper, radio, television). • Mass education needed for citizenry to learn how to use new technology. • Employment shift from agriculture to industry to services. • Changing age demographics—longer lives—more concern for the elderly. • *Better economy= less polarization of resources.*

  6. Preconditions: History of Democracy • History of Democracy- Predictor of success of democracy: countries w/ long-term experience of it tend to have fuller democracies. Explains why exporting wholesale rarely works. • Deeply entrenched Nomenklatura system has enfeebled democracy in Russia.

  7. Preconditions: History of Democracy • Senegalese president MackySall explains why his country has remained democratic when so many of its neighbors have failed: • 1) History of voting under colonial role beginning in 1848. • 2) Semi-presidential, only “one chief executive”, precludes “tensions that can end in coups.” (think South Sudan)

  8. Preconditions: International Environment of Democracy • 3 Ways Other Countries Influence Political Transitions: • 1) Prohibit or Impose Democracy- Ex: Post-WWII, Russia prohibits democracy; US/Western powers impose it. US in Iraq/Afghanistan.

  9. International Environment of Democracy • 2) Prestige- How attractive is democracy? Ex: Fascism in depressed 1930’s, communism in growing 1950’s/60’s Soviet Union, and authoritarianism in disillusioned modern Africa. • Paul Kagame’s successful “benevolent dictatorship” of Rwanda has gained the admiration of other African countries.

  10. International Environment of Democracy • 3) Incentives- Economic rewards for becoming democratic. Ex: EU is most obvious example. PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain—Italy sometimes included) inspired by economic prospects.

  11. Authoritarian Breakdown: Top-Down • May transition from five broad types of authoritarianism: • 1) Top-Down Transition- Democracy is implemented by the govt. Usually requires long negotiation between opposing forces in govt. • 1688- Glorious Revolution part of slow top-down evolution of British democracy.

  12. Authoritarian Breakdown: Top-Down Cont. • Top-down transitions can be engineered by external powers. • US has intervened to create (or sometimes destroy) democracies: Iraq, Afghanistan. • The current Iraqi parliament.

  13. Authoritarian Breakdown: Bottom-Up • 2) Bottom-Up Democratization- Enacted by citizenry. Ex: Soviet Union and its “satellite states” in 1980’s/90’s. Typically triggered by mass demonstration—sometimes violence. Rebels often must be willing to negotiate/compromise. • 1991- Yeltsin on a tank! 1980- Polish leader, Lech Walesa, addresses supporters.

  14. Authoritarian Breakdown: Military Dictatorships • 3) Military Dictatorships- Economic conditions may cause fissure in powerful military—potential civil war must be averted. Military criminals often pardoned for crimes. Can be plagued by threat of military resurgence—esp. if linked w/ elites. • 1999- Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria 2013- Egypt: “About our military…”

  15. Authoritarian Breakdown: Personalistic Regimes • 4) Personalistic Regimes- (Cult of Personality) Based on a single leader and his/her personality, alliances, or even ethnic group. Rewards those loyal. Often dissolves when leader dies. Guess who? Muammar Gadaffi, Libya, 2011.

  16. Authoritarian Breakdown: Single Party Rule • 5) Single Party Rule- Domination by single party. Can be democratic in name but authoritarian in nature: Russia. Ex: Mexico’s PRI forced to hold multiparty elections by 1994 recession, devaluation of peso—also democracy sweeping Latin America. Often deeply ingrained.

  17. Will It Last? • Concept of “transition paradigm” (sequence of democracy) largely rejected. • Difficult to prove factors linked w/ democracy. At best, slightly more than tangential. • Factors predicting durability of democracy essentially the same as factors that cause democracy: modernization, external pressure, prestige, incentives. Also history of democracy.

  18. Sources • http://www.mbhs.edu/~swaneyda/files/AP%20Comp.%20Gov./Themes,%20Concepts,%20Vocabulary/Democratization/ap05_comp_govpol_demo_42252.pdf • http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/10/paul-kagame-rwanda-success-authoritarian • http://www.democracyweb.org/elections/poland.php • http://www.nber.org/digest/jul08/w13915.html • http://www.coha.org/democracy-in-mexico-the-past-present-and-future/ • http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/04/opinion/mexico-s-democratic-breakthrough.html • http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1192.pdf • http://www.unc.edu/~kurzman/cv/Kurzman_Waves_of_Democratization.pdf • http://www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/interviews/africas-turn • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16276956 • http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/03/2012326133458592301.html • http://www.du.edu/korbel/hrhw/researchdigest/reconstruction/iraqdem.pdf • http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/readinglists/what-to-read-on-modernization-theory • http://www.cato.org/policy-report/januaryfebruary-2008/can-we-export-democracy • http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/iraqs-new-dysfunctional-democracy/274275/

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