Target setting for SEE 2020 strategy

1. Target setting for SEE 2020 strategy Update for the South East Europe Investment Committee RCC Headquarters Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 24 April 2012

2. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

3. Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference: • Integrated Growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages; • Smart Growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs; • Sustainable Growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development; • Inclusive Growth – skills development, employment creation &labour market participation by all; • Governance for Growth – improve the capacity of public administration to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption. A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

4. The proposed process Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 SEE Min Vision adopted First draft targets SEE IC Targets discussed Second draft targets Written procedure & third draft SEE IC Targets discussed Final draft targets SEE Min Targets adopted

5. An initial set of dimensions for target setting is proposed at this meeting • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Ratio of estimated female to male earned income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as a % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) • Business expenditure on R&D (BERD) • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology exports as a % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as a % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

6. Objectives for this session • Get input on target setting: • Are the chosen dimensions relevant? • Which ones need to be added or deleted? • Which dimensions are within the scope of the SEE IC? • If not within the SEE IC, which forum can assume their monitoring? • Wherever possible, give a level of ambition for the target dimensions presented • Agree about the process • Is the proposed process adequate to arrive at a result for the Ministerial? • What are the specific constraints to take into account?

7. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

8. Dimensions for Integrated Growth • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Ratio of estimated female to male earned income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as a % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) • Business expenditure on R&D (BERD) • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology exports as a % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as a % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

9. Integrated Growth: Regional trade openness in goods

10. Integrated Growth: Global trade openness in goods

11. Integrated Growth: Total value of trade in goods SEE

12. Integrated Growth: Estimated software piracy rates

13. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

14. Dimensions for Smart Growth • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Ratio of estimated female to male earned income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as a % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) • Business expenditure on R&D (BERD) • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology exports as a % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as a % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

15. Smart Growth: Gross expenditure on R&D EU-27 SEE

16. Smart Growth: Business expenditure on R&D

17. Smart Growth: Tertiary education attainment

18. Smart Growth: GDP per person employed

19. Smart Growth: High technology as a % of manufactured exports EU-27 SEE

20. Smart Growth: Internet usage EU-27 SEE

21. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

22. Dimensions for Sustainable Growth • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Gender ratio of income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D • Business expenditure on R&D • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology as % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

23. Sustainable Growth: Trade balance in goods as a % of GDP

24. Sustainable Growth: Entrepreneurship Note: The EU average is based on data from France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Poland and Sweden only

25. Sustainable Growth: CO2 emissions

26. Sustainable Growth: Energy efficiency

27. Sustainable Growth: Fossil fuel consumption SEE EU-27

28. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

29. An initial set of dimensions for target setting is proposed at this meeting • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Ratio of estimated female to male earned income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as a % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) • Business expenditure on R&D (BERD) • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology exports as a % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as a % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

30. Inclusive Growth: Employment Note: EU2020 foresees an increase of employment in the category 20-64 which is to evolve from 70.3% to 75% in 2020

31. Inclusive Growth: Gender ratio of income Note: The data for EU-27 and SEE show exactly the same ratio: 61.9%

32. Inclusive Growth: Poverty headcount Note: EU2020 foresees a reduction by 20 million, or 17% of the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion

33. Inclusive Growth: Early leavers from school EU-27 SEE

34. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

35. Dimensions for Governance for growth • Inclusive Growth • Employment • Gender ratio of income • Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty • Early leavers from school • Governance for Growth • Government debt as % of GDP • Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent • Rule of law • Regulatory quality • Integrated Growth • Regional trade openness in goods • Global trade openness in goods • Total value of trade in goods • Estimated software piracy rates • Smart Growth • Gross expenditure on R&D • Business expenditure on R&D • Tertiary education attainment • GDP per person employed • High technology as % of manufactured exports • Internet usage • Sustainable Growth • Trade balance in goods as % of GDP • Entrepreneurship • CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency • Fossil fuel consumption

36. Governance for Growth: Government debt as a % of GDP

37. Governance for Growth: Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent EU-10

38. Governance for Growth: Rule of law OECD

39. Governance for Growth: Regulatory quality OECD SEE

40. Thank you for your attention Alan Paic Head OECD Investment Compact for South East EuropePrivate Sector Development DivisionOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Alan.Paic@oecd.org www.investmentcompact.org