Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy

1. Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Jahorina, Bosnia and Herzegovina September 11th 2012

2. Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth

3. Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference: • Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages; • Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs • Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development; • Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all • Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

4. The proposed process Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 SEE Min Vision adopted SEE IC First draft targets Targets discussed Second draft targets Task Force Meeting Written procedure & third draft 2nd Task Force Meeting SEE IC Final draft targets SEE Min Targets adopted

5. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

6. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

7. Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU 46% Source: World Bank

8. Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU Sources: IMF, World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

9. Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services 600,000 250,000 Source: World Bank

10. Overall Strategic Targets:Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

11. Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit Source: World Bank

12. Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

13. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

14. Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies Years: 2004 and 2009 For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€

15. Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies Year: OECD data for 2009; ALB (goods only), BIH, HRV, MKD, and SRB (goods only) submitted data for 2010

16. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows Source: World Bank

17. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows 15, 000 Source: World Bank

18. Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

19. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

20. Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed 31,000 ? Source: World Bank

21. Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

22. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

23. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Enterprise Creation Source: SEE economies Year: 2010; ALB submitted data for 2011

24. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita Source: World Bank

25. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita Source: World Bank Year: 2010

26. Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita Sources: World Bank (both for the export data and the population data) and SEE economies Year: 2010

27. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

28. Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020 46% Sources: World Bank; data for Kosovo* found from statistical office

29. Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020 Sources: World Bank (National statistics office for Kosovo*) and SEE economies Year: 2008; ALB submitted 2009; HRV, MKD, MNE, and SRB submitted 2010 data

30. Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment 36% EU2020 target Source: Eurostat Note: SEE average contains HRV, MKD, ROU, BLG

31. Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment EU2020 target Sources: Eurostat (Proportion of the population aged 30 to 34 having tertiary educational attainment) and SEE economies Economies’ data (proportion of population 15+) Year: 2011; MNE submitted data for 2008; MKD and HRV gave data for 2010; SRB submitted data for 2002

32. An initial set of target indicators • Sustainable Growth • Growth of enterprise creation • Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth • Growth of overall employment rate • Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth • Increase government effectiveness • Overall Strategic Targets: • Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU • Growth of total trade of goods and services • Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth • Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services • Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth • Growth of GDP per person employed

33. Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness Source: World Bank Year: 2010

34. Thank you for your attention