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Penalty probability

Csanad Horvath, Math Experiment. Penalty probability. The Problem. In 2013, a little over 85% of the professional penalties were converted into goals. So I decided to teach the goalies how to save penalties. Some Math.

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Penalty probability

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  1. Csanad Horvath, Math Experiment Penalty probability

  2. The Problem • In 2013, a little over 85% of the professional penalties were converted into goals. So I decided to teach the goalies how to save penalties.

  3. Some Math • The recent Europa League finals were decided on penalties. The goalie (Beto) of the winning team was 2 meters and 29 centimeters off from his line when he saved the first penalty and 2 meters and 51 centimeters off from his line when /// he saved the second one. This is actually not allowed in Football.

  4. Should Goalies Stand Off Their Lines? • The job of the referee is to watch out if everyone is following the rules. Beto wasn’t but the referee didn’t notice. However, this can be avoided by jumping forward when the ball is kicked. By each 50 centimeters you come forward, you increase the probability of saving the penalty by 10%.

  5. Planning • In real life they take penalties from 11 meters, and the goals are 24 feet by 8 feet, but our goals are only 12 by 4 and so we take penalties from about 5 and a half meters away which is exactly ½. So when we were checking we made Gage stand half of the distance. This way we could get the data right.

  6. Experiment • So I checked if Gage stand on the line how many penalties will he save and he saved 3 out of 10. Then I checked if he stood a meter from the goals (proportional to real life size goals) what the result will be, and he saved 4 out of 10. And when he stood 2 meters away from the goal line, Gage saved 7 out of 10. The Kickers were: Lukas, Khalid, I.

  7. Results • So I found out that if a goalie stands off his line, he covers more area by standing close to the ball. He covers more area, and thus the percentage of making the save gets higher.

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