C an the World Deliver The Paris Agreement – with or without the USA?

1. Can the World Deliver The Paris Agreement – with or without the USA? Joan MacNaughton, Chair of The Climate Group 08/12/2017

2. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

3. Global energy-related CO2 emissions Analysis of estimated 2016 data suggests another year of flat global CO2 emissions, even though the global economy continued to grow

4. Well below 2 degrees • Efforts towards 1.5 degrees • Includes a review and ratchet system The Paris Agreement

5. What are they? • 195 signatories, 170 ratified countries, 164 submitted NDCs • Currently including the USA • Syria the only country left not to sign NDCs

6. Post-Paris work programme (CMA1) • Talanoa Dialogue (2018) • Increased ambition (2020) COP23

7. Global energy-related CO2 emissions abatement and key contributions in the SDS Energy efficiency and renewables are the two key abatement measures in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios

8. Key indicators in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios in 2040 relative to 2016 A combined energy efficiency and renewables approach delivers multiple benefits at lower energy cost

9. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

10. GHG emissions of G20 members by 2030

12. Decoupling of global GDP and fossil-fuel use for electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario A three-stage decoupling is taking place in power, separating economic growth and the growth of electricity demand, fossil-fuelled generation and fossil-fuel use

13. Global power-sector CO2 emissions by fuel in the New Policies Scenario While CO2 emissions from coal-fired electricity generation peaked in 2014, overall emissions in the power sector increase slightly by 2040

14. China policy targets and WEO projections for solar PV installed capacity and levelised costs Successive WEO projections for China show a virtuous circle of policy-driven deployment & lower costs, bringing solar PV to competitiveness with coal

15. Primary energy demand by fuel in China Growth in energy demand has slowed, coal (probably) has peaked, developments suggest that China’s energy future may look quite different from its past

16. Growth of passenger-car fuel use and car stock and EV share in China in the New Policies Scenario Passenger car fuel use diversifies and peaks in 2030 as growth in the car stock slows in the East and Central regions and electric cars make inroads

17. Installed power generation capacity in China in the New Policies Scenario Low-carbon technologies comprise 60% of total capacity in 2040 and overtake fossil fuels by 2030

18. EU 2030 Clean Energy Package • 40% cut in GHG emissions (1990 base year) • 27% share of renewable energy consumption • European Parliament support 35% target • 27% energy savings (compared to BAU)

19. US electricity generation by fuel and related CO2 emissions US power sector CO2 emissions fell by nearly 25% between 2006 and 2016, largely as a result of coal-to-gas switching

21. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

22. 205 jurisdictions • 43 countries • 6 continents

25. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

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30. Manitoba EU ETS Canada Beijing Ontario Alberta Kazakhstan (Suspended) British Columbia Ukraine Nova Scotia Quebec Tianjin Switzerland South Korea Washington New Brunswick Oregon Tokyo & Saitama RGGI US China Turkey California Hubei Shanghai Chongqing Taiwan Mexico Shenzhen Guangdong Thailand Trinidad and Tobago Vietnam Pacific Alliance Colombia Peru Chile Australia South Africa New Zealand Hybrid Carbon Pricing ETS in place Subnational ETS in place ETS Being Designed Carbon Tax with Offsets Being designed or in place Linkages

31. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

33. Cumulative investment needs in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios, 2017-40 The SDS is driven by investment in energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies in end-use sectors and power generation; fossil-fuel investment declines

34. Employment in coal industry decreasing • 440,000 less jobs in oil and gas 2014-2016 • 9.8 million jobs in renewable energy in 2016 Growth & Prosperity

37. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

38. Aviation and shipping • Agriculture and land use • Negative emissions • Managing the transition • Investment gap Issues for discussion

39. The Paris Agreement • Leaders and Laggards • Non-state actors • Subnational governments • Business and markets • The investment challenge • Elephants in the room • Climate Optimism Key Points

40. #ClimateOptimist www.climateoptimist.org 140 Seconds of Optimism