Public Opinion and Political Action

Public Opinion and Political Action Part I

Unanimity rare in public opinion (9/11 the exception) 2. American people? a. Very diverse b. Pop. 310 million c. Founded on of tolerating diversity and individualism d. One of most diverse countries in the world I. Public Opinion

3. Study of public opinion- aims to understand the distribution of the population’s belief about politics and policy issues Not easy not a homogeneous people People are not often well informed about the issues b. The least informed= least likely to participate in the political process= creates an imbalance in who takes part in political action

1. demography- the science of population changes 2. The census= valuable tool for understanding our demographic changes a. Required by the Constitution every 10 years b. Not an easy job c. 1990 Census= @ 4.7 million people not counted d. Mainly minority groups e. 2000- Clinton administration wanted to scientifically estimate these numbers II. The American People

f. Why? Representation/Reapportionment g. Conservatives argued this as unconstitutional h. Department of Commerce v. U.S. House of Representatives- Court ruled scientific sampling= unconstitutional 3. The Immigrant Society Today @ 800,000 new immigrants per year Historically….3 great waves Pre-19th century= from NW Europe Late 19th to early 20th= S. and E. Europe Recently= Latinos and Asians c. Immigrants bring their political views with them

4. The Melting Pot? The mixing of cultures, ideas, and peoples that have changed the U.S. The minority majority? America will cease to have a white majority 2000 Census= 69% white Americans Hispanics- 13% African-Americans- 12% Asians- 4% 1980-1990- minority populations grew at a much higher rate than white Census bureau estimates mid-21st century- whites= 52%

b. African-Americans 22% live below the poverty line (9% of whites) Mostly in urban areas Over the years= more and more political power- mayors, governors, Senate, President c. Hispanics 2000 Census= 1st time= largest minority Mostly in urban areas Big goal= escape poverty Growing political power in SW states Issue of illegal immigration

Simpson-Mazzoli Act- requires that employers document the citizenship of employees According to law only U.S. citizens or legal immigrants can work One proposal- deny all govt. benefit programs to any that cannot prove they are legal residents d. Asians - goal new class of professional workers “the super-achievers of immigrant groups” 42% of those over 25= college degrees= 2 times national average Political power is increasing

e. Native Americans • Worst off minority- less than 1% • Least healthy, poorest, least educated- almost no political power 5. America= increasingly multicultural, multilingual- but most Americans share a common… • Political culture- an overall set of values widely shared • example- principle of equality b. Still “a magnet for conflict and hostility”

6. The Regional Shift Most of American history- majority of population= north of Mason-Dixie line, east of Mississippi River Changing- West and South- the Sunbelt 1990-2000- CA- ^14%, TX^23%, FL^24% c. Political change too= reapportionment in the House of Representatives Example California= 1900- 7 representatives, today= 53- NY has lost 1/3 of its reps in 50 yrs. SC, GA, NC increase in 2010

7. The Graying of America Nationwide fastest growing group= people over 65 Decline in birthrate Medical advances b. 2020- 2 workers for every person on Social Security! c. America’s most costly public policy after National Defense d. Both parties won’t touch it- why?

III. How Americans Lean About Politics: Political Socialization • Political Socialization: • the process by which an individual acquire his particular political orientation • his knowledge, feelings, and evaluations about his political world a. The older we get= the firmer our political orientations b. Governments aim socialization efforts at the young * More subtle in the U.S. than say the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany

2. Process of Political Socialization In America only a small portion is formal High School govt. classes = bare nuts and bolts Most done without teachers Most informal socialization agents- the family, the mass media, school 3. The Family Most important Why? Has a monopoly on 2 crucial resources during early years time and emotional commitment Number one socialization predictor on voting behavior

d. Youth rebellions of 1960s, 70s- the radical youth 4. The Mass Media • The “new parent” • Average kid= more hours in front of electronics than in class • Today= chief source of political information for kids (over parents too) • …but not from TV news or newspapers • Average TV news person= 58 years • Young adults pay least amount of attention to political news

5. School The Pledge of Allegiance (Again Nazi Germany) Schooling= most obvious intrusion of govt. into American socialization process Textbooks chosen by school boards, teachers, licensed by state govts. d. Better educated citizens= more likely to vote, know more about political issues, more tolerant of opposing view points 6. Political Learning over a Lifetime a. Lifelong process- ageing increases political participation and party attachment

I. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information 1. How do we know what % of young people favor abortion, what % of Hispanics supported Bush in the 2000 Election, what % of Americans favored immediate airstrikes against Afghanistan after 9/11? Polls Lots of skepticism about polls- how accurate when 1000-1500 people all over the country are interviewed?

2. How Polls are Conducted A relatively new science 1st developed by George Gallup- he did some polling for his mom-in-law- running for office in Iowa c. She was a long shot, but did well= use of polling spread d. Asking every American their opinion= too expensive, time consuming e. Polls rely on a sample of the population- a small proportion of the people, chosen to represent the whole

e. Famous analogy of the blood sample f. In general public opinion polling= 1000-1500 people represent the population g. Key to its success= random sampling- operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being included in the sample Example out of 1000 polled- 13% should be African-American, 50% female etc. h. The science involves estimation- a poll can never have 100% confidence level

i. Sampling error- the more people interviewed in a poll= the more confident one can be about the results Typical poll= + or – 3%= results are within 3 % of what entire population thinks Therefore if 60% respond in a poll they think Obama is a terrorist- we can be pretty sure 57-63% of people think this j. To get best results- have to follow proper sampling techniques

1936 Literary Digest poll- polled 2,376,000 Americans and predicted Republicans would win Presidency by 19% margin…FDR won. Moral of this story= accurate representation makes a poll accurate not the number of people polled k. Today- computers and phones have made surveying less expensive, more common No longer door-to-door- now use phones and random-digit-dialing Some trade-offs- 7% of population have no phone, people are less likely to participate over phone Recent issue of cell phones? What to do with polling?

3. The Role of Polls in American Democracy Polling supporters insist it = a tool for democracy. Argue policy makers can stay in touch with changing opinions about the issues Do not have to wait until election time to see how people feel about govt. policy b. Critics argue it makes politicians more concerned with following than leading Political pandering- Argument that politicians use polling to win support for their policies- not to set policies, but sell policies

d. Weakening of democracy- the bandwagon effect- voters who support a candidate/policy because they see others are doing it Presidential campaigns= steady flow of poll results? e. Most widely criticized poll= the election day exit poll- voting places are selected randomly around the country- major pollsters send workers to these places to interview every tenth person to predict the electoral winners quickly Historically, media reports likely winner before people on the West Coast have voted= the Time Zone Effect- discourages voting (2000)

2000 Election Popular Vote Results

f. Biggest criticism of polls= by altering the wording of questions, pollsters can get the results they want example- rather vague ‘Should the U.S. go to war against Iraq at some point after Jan. 15 or not?’…vs. ‘Should the U.S. start military action against Iraq, or wait longer to see if the trade embargo and other economic sanctions work?’ = very different results g. Do not take polls as solid fact- think about the sampling and the wording of the questions

4. What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information It is true that you may fool all of the people some time; and you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time –P.T. Barnum or Mark Twain Jefferson’s and Hamilton’s views about wisdom of the common people * Jefferson trusted people’s good sense and believed education would enable them to undertake the tasks of citizenship- the University of Virginia * Hamilton- Your people, sir, are a great beast

b. If polling had existed- Hamilton would have loved to show Jefferson the results The one thing public opinion analysts agree on= the public’s knowledge about politics is dismally low Most so among young people Less than ½ of Americans can name their Representative Any flare up in a foreign country? Large % of Americans do not have any idea where the country is located During 1980s- 75% of people could answer that Bush did not like broccoli…but his position on tax cuts?

c. Even more depressing…America = the most information rich society in the world and in history The fault of the schools? No longer teach enough “cultural literacy” to follow what politicians are talking about Over last 40 years- more Americans going to school…but no increase in political knowledge Lots of media information…but is much of it meaningful? (more on this later) d. The “paradox of American politics” that the American political system works as well as it does given the lack of political knowledge

5. The Decline of Trust in Government a. Over last 4 decades American trust in government has decreased b. 1950s, early 1960s- 75% of Americans trusted govt. to do the right thing always or most of the time c. Following Election of 1964- this started to decline Vietnam Watergate Carter: economic troubles, Iran hostage crisis d. 1980= about 25% trusted govt. – went up a bit during Reagan years 

e. 1994- back down again- all time low f. Brief time period- 9/11 up again, but today back down to all time low….only 20% trust government. g. Some argue public cynicism good- keeps politicians on their toes h. Others see it as proof that people do not think govt. is serving them well i. Some wondered if cynicism was so bad U.S. would not unite in a national emergency- 9/11 dispelled this

III. Political Ideologies 1. A coherent set of values and beliefs about public policy a. liberals- often support a wide scope for central government, often involving policies that aim to promote equality b. conservatives- support a less active scope of government that giving more control to the private sector 2. Who are the Liberals and Conservatives? a. Most Americans consistently choose conservative ideology over liberal Recent data= 42% conservatives, 34% moderates, 24% liberals The predominance of conservative thinking= a reason for the restrained scope of govt. compared to European nations

b. Some groups= more liberal than others Under 30= just as many conservatives as liberals- the younger the person is= less likely to be conservative- but since older people vote- liberals are underrepresented at the polls c. In general those with more political clout= usually conservative African-Africans= much more liberal- due to Civil Rights Movement, strong support of social welfare programs, affirmative action Hispanics= generally more liberal

d. women= 54% of population- not a minority, but historically politically and economically disadvantaged More likely than men to support social services, oppose higher spending on military The gender gap- the regular pattern by which women are more likely to support Democratic candidates e. Financial status= used to be a huge predictor of political ideology- but not any more- unless upper 1/3 in income= conservative f. religion= not as big of a predictor as it used to be * Catholics and Jews used to = highly liberal, today just Jews who = by far most liberal demographic group in U.S.

Today ideological gap between Catholics and Protestants= small Ideology now is determined more by religiosity- the more important religion is in one’s life= more conservative The Christian right- Catholic or Protestant fundamentalists or “born-again”- have tied morality and traditional family values to politics= currently largest Conservative demographic group Those with no religious affiliation= much more likely to be liberal IV. Do People Think in Ideological Terms? 1. The American Voter- study on if people let political ideology guide their voting

a. Public divided into 4 groups according to their political sophistication b. Ideologues (12%)- people who show evidence of thinking in ideological terms, and connect their beliefs and opinions with policy positions of parties or candidates c. Group BenefitVoters (42%)- vote for parties based on which groups they think the parties like- example- vote for Republicans because they like small businesses, or Democrats because they like the working class d. Nature of the Times Voters (24%)- their political knowledge was limited to whether or not the times seemed good or bad- if bad blame it on the party in power, if good- don’t vote for the opposing party

e. No Issue Contest Group (22%)- devoid of any ideological or issue content in their political evaluations- simply voted routinely for a party or based vote simply on a candidate’s personality f. The study was done from 1956-1972- not much has changed, if not worse g. Some conclude= most Americans do not think of themselves as conservatives or liberals as clearly as political elites do- political ideology not as important as integrity and competence

I. How Americans Participate in Politics 1. Political participation= the many activities in which citizen engage in to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue a. Both subtle and overt- mass demonstrations to writing a letter to a congressman b. Can be violent or peaceful, organized or individual 2. In general- U.S. culture values political participation 87% say they are proud to be American Only 51% of adults voted in the 2004 Presidential Election, 2006 midterms were worse, 2010 midterms up slightly Local level= the worst- often 10% participation

3. Political scientists distinguish between 2 types of political participation- II. Conventional Participation 1. Includes many widely accepted modes of influencing the government • Voting, trying to persuade others, ringing door bells for a petition, running for office 2. Very small number of people consider political activity an important part of their lives- out of U.S. maybe tens of thousands

3. Millions take part in political activity beyond voting a. but voting is only form of political activity a majority claim to have done- even this is declining • Working in campaigns • Contacting government officials • Working on local community issues III. Unconventional Participation 1. Often dramatic activities- protest, civil disobedience, violence (assassination and rebellion)

IV. Protest as Participation 1. Americans have engaged in many- The Boston Tea Party, burning of draft cards 2. Protest= a form of political participation designed to achieve policy change through dramatic and unconventional tactics a. Media usually covers protests- so worth while for attention

b. Today protests are planned with TV cameras in mind 3. Civil Disobedience a. A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences 1840s- Henry David Thoreau and the Mexican War Martin Luther King his civil disobedience to segregation laws Letter From a Birmingham Jail- classic defense of civil disobedience

4. Violence a. Political participation can turn violent U.S. born out of rebellion 1960s- urban riots, college campuses and protest of the Vietnam War Few people support it, but violence has been a means of pressuring govt. to change its policies

V. Class, Inequality, and Participation 1. Rates of political participation in the U.S. are unequal a. Citizens of higher social economic status participate more- higher the income, education, occupation= more likely to participate politically b. Not only voting- also donations, campaign workers, protests, letters etc. Those who argue U.S. is run by small, wealthy elite use this as evidence c. African-Americans= on average- 12% the national average

d. Hispanics= 11% below the national average e. ….but when African-Americans, Hispanics, Whites of equal income and education are compared- minorities= more likely to participate f. A cause for concern- most politicians do not listen to the concerns of those who do not vote= young people and low income people V. Public Attitudes Towards the Scope of Government 1. 1989- many Eastern European countries protested= said they wanted to be democratic just like U.S.

a. They had not real idea how America works b. Average person is not well informed about the political issues 2. Is the scope of American government too broad and wide-ranging? a. Central to Republican ideology Government is not the solution to society’s problems- it is the problem…get off the backs of the American people- Regan

b. 1980 poll- 50% of Americans agreed 2. Recently questions on the scope of government today= no opinion at all a. 2000 Election poll- 42% answered they never thought about this (60% of young adults) b. It is a complex question- but a major controversy about our government today c. These answers again prove public is not as concerned with political issues as it should be 3. Of those who do say government is too big…

a. A plurality has called for more spending on education, health care, aid to big cities, protecting the environment, fighting crime= a contradiction 4. Conclusion= Average Americans are: ideological conservatives, but operational liberals a. They oppose the idea of big government in principle, but favor it in practice b. Can lead to gridlock- politicians don’t always know which aspect of the public to respond to. (2010 Midterms)

VI. Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action 1. American democracy= representative not direct a. We don’t decide what government should do, but who should decide what it should do 2. Major problem of U.S.- If we know so little about the candidates and where they stand on issues, how can we make rational choices? a. Most of those who do vote chose performance criteria over policy criteria Base decision based on what life was like during incumbent’s administration- no need of precise economic, foreign policies If things are going well- stick with the same

VII. Political Participation Beyond Voting and the Advantages 1. Protest/ Civil Disobedience • Advantages: • Brings public attention and sympathy • Low costs • Response from policy makers is usually more immediate 2. Litigation • Advantages * Do not need a numerical majority like you do in voting

In using the courts you appeal to principle/law- no opinion 3. Contacting the media or public officials Advantages Direct access to leaders Magnify representation Ability to express specific policy area 4. Campaign work/ voter registration Advantages Contact with potential officials Good training ground Meet others with same political interests

5. Campaign contributions Advantages Access to public policy officials Ability to multiply one’s force of individual preference- beyond voting 6. Running for political office/ holding office Advantages Direct influence on policy making Set policy agenda

Public Opinion and Political Action