Public Opinion and Political Action

1. Public Opinion and Political Action Chapter 6

2. Introduction • Some Basics: • Demography • The science of population changes. • Gender • Occupation • Race • Religion • SES - social class

3. America’s Demographics: Who are we and how do we know? • Census • A valuable tool for understanding population changes- required every 10 years. • 2010 Census (1:35): • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf1f2MhKLmg • Immigrant Society and the Melting Pot ideal • First wave -- NW Europeans • 2nd wave - Eastern Europeans • 3rd Wave - Hispanics + Asians • Minority/majority is influencing the great melting pot. • By 2050 - Whites will be only 52% of society • At one time Blacks were the largest “reluctant” minority. Now w/ affirmative action, they are moving up.

4. The American People Figure 6.1

5. The American PeoplePolitical Culture: An overall set of values widely shared within a society. • Simpson/MazzoliAct requires employers to document the citizenship of employees or face fines. • Asian influx has brought an educated elite into America. . .the typical downtrodden immigrant now is highly educated • Even with gambling, Native Americans maintain a dismal ranking in acquiring the American dream. Which party will benefit from the minority/majority?

6. The American People: The Regional Shift • Demographics has also changed with the MOBILE society • Frost Belt to Sun Belt: SW, SE and Texas dramatic population increases (20% growth rates) while North has 5% growth • Reapportionment • The process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives (435) every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census. • Redistricting is done by state legislatures.

7. The Graying of America • GRAY POWER • Baby boomers graying rapidly (fastest growing group) + • They wish to collect their $5 trillion in Social Security benefits! Potential drain by 2020 • Their SIGS possess clout – i.e. AARP • One advantage that no other group has- we are all going to get older

8. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization • Political Socialization: the process through which an individual acquires his or her political orientation • The Process of Political Socialization • How it is developed? • Who establishes our political values?

9. HOW is political socialization developed? • Weight of tradition + customs • Impact of events • Changes in the way of political elites • Families • School • Relationships (as the paradigms shift)

10. WHO establishes our political value system. . .Who sets the agenda? • Single Interest Groups (SIGS) • Political institutions • Media “The New Parent” • Family • Social Economic Stratification (SES) as one grows older.

11. Family. • Strongest. • Time & emotional commitment • Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings • Fairly equal influence of mother and father. • When parents differ, child tends to associate w/beliefs of parent with whom he/she more closely identifies.

12. Family Influence http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110407121337.htm

13. Mass Media • TV displaces parents as chief source of info. • Generation gap in TV news viewing and newspaper reading

14. Schools • Impart basic values • civic duty, patriotism. • Used by government to socialize the young into the culture and government • High school government classes apparently do not change political orientation of students. • College students tend to be more liberal than general population. • College students at most prestigious schools tend to be the most liberal. • College students in social sciences more liberal than those in natural/physical sciences.

16. Other Sources of Influence • Religion • Protestant, Catholic, Jewish • Race • White, Black, Hispanic (Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban) • Income • Gender

17. The Gender Gap • Women vote for the Democratic candidates at higher rates than Republican candidates.

19. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • 5 ways to measure public opinion • Elections (useful but not 100% accurate) • Interest Groups (Useful to use) • Media (Only the vocal are heard) • Straw Poll (Very unreliable) • Scientific Polling (Most reliable if 5 steps are followed- developed by Gallop) • Nate Silver’s method- a poll of polls- is the MOST accurate scientific polling method

20. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • 5 Steps in Scientific Polling • Define the universe • Entire population the poll will measure (women, men, children, whites, blacks, etc.) • Construct the Sample (See next slide) • Develop valid and unbiased questions • Must be very specific and non-leading • Control how the poll is conducted • Phone (usually best way to get honest answers), e-mail, face-to-face (careful that the interviewer doesn’t influence the answers • Analyze and report the findings (See the two slides after the next on sampling)

21. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • How Sample Sizes Can Be Constructed -Random Sampling: The key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers; operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample -Representative Sample: Draws from all groups -Sample size 1500 -Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll, +/-3% (will be accurate 95% of the time if the 5 steps are followed)

22. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • Analyzing the Results: How Polls Influence Government (The Good Part) • Help candidates and politicians figure out public preferences. • Inform the public about issues. • Exit Polls- used by the media to predict election day winners so we don’t have to wait! • Polls reflect the policy agenda—problems the people inside and outside of government believe must be addressed. • Politicians use polls to help get themselves reelected and do what their constituents want

23. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • Analyzing the Results: How Polls Don’t Influence Government (The Bad Part) • Politicians don’t want to be seen as indecisive (only votes for what the polls say, not for what he/she knows or believes in) • If the opinion poll goes against what the party wants, politicians won’t vote for what the public wants for fear of losing support of party leadership • Or politicians won’t vote for what the public wants to GAIN support of party leadership (he/she did want the leadership wanted, not public)

24. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • Analyzing the Results: What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information (The Bad Part) • Americans don’t know much about politics. • Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how that affects policies of the government. • The Decline of Trust in Government • Now only about 25% of the public trust the government most of the time or always.

25. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Political Ideology: • A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public purpose.

26. Demographics and Ideology • The Republican Party Coalition • Rural voters/farmers • White males • Business owners • Conservative Christians • College Educated

27. Demographics and Ideology • Democratic Coalition • Urban dwellers • Union members • Hispanics and African Americans • High School Diploma • Advanced Degree

28. Demographics and Voter Turnout • The following increase the chance that someone will vote: • Higher income • Older • Well educated • White (sort of) • Northerner • Union member • Government employee

30. Liberalism • Classical liberalism of 18th century -- limited role of government. Govt. seen as chief threat to liberty. “That govt. is best which governs least.” • Modern liberalism of 20th century -- expanded role of government. Corporations seen as chief threat ---> need for a strong central govt. to “smooth out the rough edges of capitalism.” • Strong influence of liberalism, 1930's - 1970's.

31. Discrediting of liberalism in 1980's and 1990's: a feeling that liberalism had 'gone too far.' Need to get back to more individualism and less reliance on big govt. • “Neoliberals.” • Less likely to rely upon govt as solution to problems. • Govt. certainly has some role to play, but not as big a role as desired by New Deal liberals. • Rise of Democratic Leadership Council, w/members like Bill Clinton and Paul Tsongas.

32. Conservatism • Essentially classical liberalism. • Resurgence in late 70's and 80's: Reagan/Bush, Repub. control of Senate 1980-86. • Emphasis today on the private sector to solve problems. • "Neoconservatives” and the New Right: impact upon social, economic, and foreign policy.

33. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies. A few examples: • Liberals: • More domestic spending • Pro-choice • Favor affirmative action • Favor progressive taxation • Pro gay marriage • Conservatives: • More military spending • Pro-life • Oppose affirmative action • Keep taxes low • Support traditional marriage

34. The Other Ideologues • Environmentalism – Grassroots democracy, social justice, non-violence. In a post-materialistic world, many seek to replenish the environment before it wears out. The post-materialistic world. . . • Socialism – Public ownership of means of production and exchange. A left wing perspective. Market economy w/ gov’t involvement. . .Most European democracies use this approach. High taxes but “Nat’l” benefits. • Libertarianism – Individual liberty + sharply limited gov’t; isolationist; repeal all morality laws. “Get Gov’t out of your lives”. A Nevada favorite

35. How Americans Participate in Politics • Political Participation: • All the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue. • Conventional Participation • Voting in elections • Working in campaigns / running for office • Contacting elected officials

36. How Americans Participate in Politics • Protest as Participation • Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics. • Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

37. How Americans Participate in Politics • Class, Inequality, and Participation Figure 6.5